WPAC: CIMARON - Post-tropical

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/ 150551Z JUL 13//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 15.0N 124.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 124.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.0N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.6N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.3N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 21.3N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 25.2N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 30.9N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 36.7N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 124.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 222 NM
EASTWARD OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 151800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z
AND 162100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 150551Z JUL 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 150600).//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

heavy rains for the Philippines.

[mrbagyo]

If this doesn't make landfall in Cagayan or Isabela province. I'll give it a chance to bomb.
it's going to cross some very favorable condition.

heck... the small exposed LLC I spotted a few days ago is still alive- now in the vicinity of 139.5E 22.5N

[HURAKAN]

Looking quite impressive

['CaneFreak]

I agree with you in that I think the forecasted maximum intensity of this system is well underdone. I think the potential is there for this system to go bonkers. I mean, come on. It's got favorable upper level conditions...very warm water...low level convergence...good upper divergence with a trough to the northwest of it??? I guess they didn't feel very confident given the model uncertainty.

Edit: WOW That microwave image shows a very well defined small curved band around a well developed LLC...this thing looks primed to surprise given the small, tight circulation...

[HURAKAN]

I agree with you in that I think the forecasted maximum intensity of this system is well underdone. I think the potential is there for this system to go bonkers. I mean, come on. It's got favorable upper level conditions...very warm water...low level convergence...good upper divergence with a trough to the northwest of it??? I guess they didn't feel very confident given the model uncertainty.

Potential interaction with Luzon could be what is keeping the computer models from significantly developing this system

[Alyono]

If this doesn't make landfall in Cagayan or Isabela province. I'll give it a chance to bomb.
it's going to cross some very favorable condition.

heck... the small exposed LLC I spotted a few days ago is still alive- now in the vicinity of 139.5E 22.5N

Conditions are not at all favorable for RI. Too much shear over this

[Alyono]

I agree with you in that I think the forecasted maximum intensity of this system is well underdone. I think the potential is there for this system to go bonkers. I mean, come on. It's got favorable upper level conditions...very warm water...low level convergence...good upper divergence with a trough to the northwest of it??? I guess they didn't feel very confident given the model uncertainty.

Potential interaction with Luzon could be what is keeping the computer models from significantly developing this system

its shear. Just looked at the precip fields in the models. Very asymmetric once it clears the Philippines

['CaneFreak]

That solves that mystery. Thanks!

its shear. Just looked at the precip fields in the models. Very asymmetric once it clears the Philippines

[jaguarjace]

Here's a saved loop:


It took me ages to post this since my wifi keeps cutting out. There's a very dangerous thunderstorm over Perth right now.

[mrbagyo]

Here's a saved loop:


It took me ages to post this since my wifi keeps cutting out. There's a very dangerous thunderstorm over Perth right now.

nice image loop... I'm really curious about that exposed LLC in the open Pacific,,, it's still alive...been there for 4 days now!!!

[senorpepr]

Some short-term decreasing shear helps out the depression. Looks like a good shot to become Tropical Storm Cimaron in the next several hours, but a run a severe TS strength will be difficult. Unforuntately, the models beyond 48 hours are too divergent. How much land will the storm cross before shear eats it up in about 4 days? NE Luzon, Taiwan, and E China all at risk... the latter two, of course, just picked up plenty of rainfall with Soulik last week.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GrVG_MjKaV4[/youtube]

[mrbagyo]

WTPN31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 15.6N 124.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 124.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.0N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.7N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 20.4N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 22.9N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 28.0N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 34.3N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 123.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY ADDITIONALLY DEPICTS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED AND SHALLOWED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY LOOPS, WITH
ADDITIONAL ASSISTANCE FROM A 160517Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE.
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION REMAINS LOW, BUT IS IMPROVING, AS
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS
FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
RADIAL OUTFLOW WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM. TD 08W IS CURRENTLY SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWEST ON A
SOUTHWESTERN EXTENSION OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
SITUATED NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. TD 08W IS NOW FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 OVER THE YELLOW
SEA.
B. TD 08W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE STR THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS, MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN
TAIWAN BY TAU 48. TD 08W IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE
AND INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WHILE THE SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS THE WARM (>28 DEGREES CELSIUS) WATERS OF THE LUZON
STRAIT. AFTER TAU 48, TD 08W WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE NORTH, MAKING
LANDFALL AGAIN, INTO EASTERN CHINA AS A WEAKENED 35 KNOT SYSTEM.
C. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS EASTERN CHINA, TD 08W IS EXPECTED
TO TAKE A MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST TRACK INTO THE YELLOW SEA.
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (<26 DEGREES
CELSIUS), INCREASING VWS AND THE PRIOR LAND INTERACTION WITH CHINA
WILL LEAD TO THE SYSTEMS DISSIPATION BY TAU 96, ALL WHILE BECOMING
ABSORBED INTO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY SPANNING ACROSS THE YELLOW SEA.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS WIDELY SPREAD WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE
ORIENTATION OF STR AND THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. JGSM AND EGRR
CONTINUE TO HOLD THE SYSTEM TOO WEAK, WHILE NAVGEM TRACKS THE SYSTEM
FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH AT A WEAKENED STATE. GFS, THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN AND HWRF TRACK THE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST COAST OF TAIWAN AND
TOWARDS SOUTH KOREA IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. DUE TO THIS LARGE SPREAD,
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[jaguarjace]

The Name 'Cimaron' was contributed by the Philippines, and is a type of wild ox.

[Hurricane_Luis]

25 knot sustained wind, Is it weakening!?

[Grifforzer]

Weather Bulletin Number FIVE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "ISANG"
Issued at 5:00 a.m., Wednesday, 17 July 2013

Tropical Depression "ISANG" has made landfall over Estagno Point, Isabela

Location of Center:(as of 4:00 a.m.) 70 km East of Tuguegarao City
Coordinates: 17.3°N, 122.3°E
Strength: Maximum winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: Northwest at 15 kph

[Typhoon Hunter]

JMA upped to TS Cimaron at 00z. Luckily it won't replicate 2006's Cimaron which was an utter beast of a storm!

Rains still pose a big threat from this of course and forecast to be slow moving with landfall over SE China in just under 72hrs.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[euro6208]

wow already our 8th TC of the year and it's only july! i think we are on pace for a *normal* season...

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 007
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 19.5N 121.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 121.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 21.1N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 22.8N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 24.3N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 25.8N 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 120.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 08W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 294 NM
NORTHWARD OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
170600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND
180900Z.//
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (CIMARON) WARNING
NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 294 NM
NORTHWARD OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES IMPROVING AND DEEPENING CONVECTIVE BANDING
THAT IS BEGINNING TO WRAP TIGHTER AROUND A CONSOLIDATING LLCC.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS DEEPENING
CONVECTION THAT IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH A 170507Z
AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES BASED UPON THE DEEPENING
CONVECTION AND INCREASED ORGANIZATION SEEN IN THE MSI AND EIR. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
RADIAL OUTFLOW WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM. TS 08W HAS EXHIBITED A SLIGHT LEE SIDE JUMP
PHENOMENON AS IT QUICKLY TRACKED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF
LUZON AND IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWEST ON THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) SITUATED NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED
SOUTH AS DYNAMIC AIDS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
B. TS 08W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND MAKE LANDFALL
INTO EASTERN CHINA APPROXIMATELY 200NM NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG.
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(>28 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW, WILL ALLOW TS 08W REACH
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL,
LAND INTERACTION WILL ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO ITS EVENTUAL
DISSIPATION OVER EASTERN CHINA BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO A GOOD AGREEMENT AS ALL MODELS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
HWRF, HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND DEPICT A STRAIGHT
NORTHWEST TRACK INTO EASTERN CHINA. DUE TO THIS GOOD AGREEMENT, THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED ACCORDINGLY AND IS NOW LAID WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[1111]

Has anyone noted the tiny cyclone in the east of Cimaron? How cute it is!

http://photo.weibo.com/1763864272/wbpho ... 20m910zdo0