CPAC: FLOSSIE - Post-Tropical

[wxman57]

That ASCAT pass is from 0751 UTC, or 2:51am CDT today. Almost 12 hours old. Image times are in purple along the lower longitude axis.

[Kingarabian]

29/1800 UTC 20.4N 154.1W T1.5/2.5 FLOSSIE -- Central Pacific

[WeatherGuesser]

Put L3 NEXRAD radar in motion and it just looks like a blob moving. I'm not seeing the rotation (yet) that I've seen with other systems.

[tolakram]

Latest

[Cyclenall]

I haven't followed Flossie til now since I assumed it would have been long dead before reaching the Hawaiian islands...its surprising it made it this far and I never expect anything interesting from these. What's funny is all those that don't know the history of Epac Hawaiian bound systems all get excited and we have Jim Cantore go over to there to track...some rain? "6 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
COUNTY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.." How is this going to happen?

Bad news. Disco not out, but look at the new track cone.

What about that is bad news? Can't see what happens when the big island is hit? The big island always finds a way to wiggle itself out of any tropical trouble.

I know this probably has been stated before in this thread, but anyone find it funny how the last Flossie in 2007 was also targeting Hawaii as well? What odds!! Its like the two Bertha's in the Atlantic (1996 and 2008).

[Kingarabian]

Latest ASCAT missed the storm actually.

5 hours ago:


Considering its look has not changed since the last advisory I would assume it still has those 40kt barbs.

[Kingarabian]

Wind observations on the Big Island of Hawaii.

[Yellow Evan]

Latest ASCAT missed the storm actually.

5 hours ago:


Considering its look has not changed since the last advisory I would assume it still has those 40kt barbs.

Except the intensity of the storm is 35 knts.

[Yellow Evan]

I haven't followed Flossie til now since I assumed it would have been long dead before reaching the Hawaiian islands...its surprising it made it this far and I never expect anything interesting from these. What's funny is all those that don't know the history of Epac Hawaiian bound systems all get excited and we have Jim Cantore go over to there to track...some rain? "6 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
COUNTY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.." How is this going to happen?

Bad news. Disco not out, but look at the new track cone.

What about that is bad news? Can't see what happens when the big island is hit? The big island always finds a way to wiggle itself out of any tropical trouble.

I know this probably has been stated before in this thread, but anyone find it funny how the last Flossie in 2007 was also targeting Hawaii as well? What odds!! Its like the two Bertha's in the Atlantic (1996 and 2008).

That's bad news since more ppl live on Oahu than the Big Island.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062013
1100 AM HST MON JUL 29 2013

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF FLOSSIE IS
EXPOSED TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT FLOSSIE IS A MINIMAL TROPICAL
STORM AT THIS TIME. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS SHEAR AND
INTERACTION WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ON MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND
IMPACT THE SYSTEM. FLOSSIE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 48 HOURS.

THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH MOST MODELS INDICATING
A WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND FOLLOWS ALONG WITH MOST GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD BRING THE
SYSTEM OVER MAUI COUNTY LATER TODAY OR EARLY TONIGHT AND PASS BY
JUST SOUTH OF OAHU AND KAUAI COUNTY LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 20.6N 154.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 21.2N 157.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 21.8N 160.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 22.5N 164.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 22.9N 167.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/1800Z 24.0N 173.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

[WeatherGuesser]

Are we expecting this to fall below TS before it gets to the Islands?

[Kingarabian]

Are we expecting this to fall below TS before it gets to the Islands?

They have it becoming a depression after the LLC makes landfall over Maui.

[WeatherGuesser]

Yeah, but will it make it that far? Doesn't seem to be much left.

Rain and wind sure, and that could be a problem, but it seems to be falling apart faster than expected.

[Kingarabian]

Yeah, but will it make it that far? Doesn't seem to be much left.

Rain and wind sure, and that could be a problem, but it seems to be falling apart faster than expected.

Looking at the last few frames convection has been consistent. That could change however once the blob feels the wrath of those mountains.

[Yellow Evan]

I think it will stay at 35 till landfall by it's skin of its teeth.

[WeatherGuesser]

I guess I'm trying to figure out if the media is overplaying it. I'm seeing some fairly dramatic headlines --- 'first direct hit in 20 years' and so on. Now we all know that even a TD can create havoc, but some of them seem to be playing it up as something a lot more major.

I just hope the people on the downside of slopes know to get clear in case of mudslides. I'd really hate to see a system like this rack up casualties.

[Kingarabian]

Meanwhile the weather begins to deteriorate on the Big Island of Hawaii.

[Yellow Evan]

I guess I'm trying to figure out if the media is overplaying it. I'm seeing some fairly dramatic headlines --- 'first direct hit in 20 years' and so on. Now we all know that even a TD can create havoc, but some of them seem to be playing it up as something a lot more major.

I just hope the people on the downside of slopes know to get clear in case of mudslides. I'd really hate to see a system like this rack up casualties.

They were donwplaying it till yesterday. "First direct hit in 20 years" is plain truth, nothing really inaccurate by it (Neki 09 did not hit the main Hawaiian islands, the last direct hit), I don't think mudslides will be a huge issue, never really has with Hawaii storm's.

[Yellow Evan]

Meanwhile the weather begins to deteriorate on the Big Island of Hawaii.

I can't find any real damage reports yet.

[WeatherGuesser]

"First direct hit in 20 years" is plain truth, nothing really inaccurate by it

True, if it remains a TS. If it drops to TD, does it qualify as a 'direct hit'? That was one of the big questions last year in NJ and NY. Did they get hit by a hurricane or not? We all know how devastating it was, whatever they got, but it really isn't in the books as a hurricane strike.


A TD is a big storm for sure, but will it be in the books as a direct strike or will they go longer than 20 years?

Not downplaying a TD at all. I know I wouldn't want to be in one. I saw all I need in what little we got of Ike's remnants 600 miles inland.