ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 22, 2013 9:43 am

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307221444
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2013, DB, O, 2013072212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982013
AL, 98, 2013072112, , BEST, 0, 127N, 131W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2013072118, , BEST, 0, 127N, 141W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2013072200, , BEST, 0, 127N, 151W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2013072206, , BEST, 0, 127N, 161W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2013072212, , BEST, 0, 127N, 171W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 180, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST,

Thread that was the topic for this area at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=115249&hilit=&start=0
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#2 Postby Bizzles » Mon Jul 22, 2013 9:45 am

This is the wave that went yellow shortly after coming off the coast of Africa correct??
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Re:

#3 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 22, 2013 9:48 am

Bizzles wrote:This is the wave that went yellow shortly after coming off the coast of Africa correct??


Yes,is the one.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#4 Postby tolakram » Mon Jul 22, 2013 10:01 am

Not a very good live loop, using the full GOES-E view: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Latest from that view

Image

Better views from the EUMetsat page using the full disc high resolution images.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... ESOLUTION/
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#5 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jul 22, 2013 10:18 am

Good view of it here:
http://tropicaltidbits.com/satellite/im ... tl_vis.gif

Note that the statistical models develop a weak TS then indicate steady weakening out to 120hrs.
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ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6 Postby artist » Mon Jul 22, 2013 10:18 am

Post model runs and model info here for 98L -
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#7 Postby Janie2006 » Mon Jul 22, 2013 10:20 am

^^ That is a good view of our invest. A rough ride ahead for this system.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#8 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 22, 2013 10:20 am

WHXX01 KWBC 221446
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1446 UTC MON JUL 22 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982013) 20130722 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130722 1200 130723 0000 130723 1200 130724 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.7N 17.1W 13.7N 19.7W 14.6N 22.9W 15.7N 26.8W
BAMD 12.7N 17.1W 13.0N 19.9W 13.4N 23.0W 14.3N 26.3W
BAMM 12.7N 17.1W 13.3N 20.0W 14.0N 23.2W 15.1N 26.7W
LBAR 12.7N 17.1W 13.1N 19.6W 13.7N 22.8W 14.8N 26.3W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 31KTS 36KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 31KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130724 1200 130725 1200 130726 1200 130727 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.1N 31.5W 19.7N 41.1W 21.8N 50.1W 23.9N 57.9W
BAMD 15.7N 29.7W 18.6N 36.4W 20.0N 41.9W 19.6N 46.3W
BAMM 16.7N 30.6W 19.7N 38.7W 21.8N 45.8W 22.8N 51.9W
LBAR 16.4N 29.9W 19.4N 36.4W 20.7N 42.0W 20.7N 44.3W
SHIP 40KTS 40KTS 34KTS 32KTS
DSHP 40KTS 40KTS 34KTS 32KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.7N LONCUR = 17.1W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 12.7N LONM12 = 15.1W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 13.1W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#9 Postby Riptide » Mon Jul 22, 2013 10:24 am

Interesting stuff, full speed ahead into fish-land according to the BAM suite.
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#10 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Jul 22, 2013 10:24 am

it weaking because of shear by carribbean and sal i bet i see it have go from SHIP 40KTS 40KTS 34KTS 32KTS
DSHP 40KTS 40KTS 34KTS 32KTS other one go like Chantal
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#11 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Jul 22, 2013 10:27 am

this going to be other Chantal? get kill by shear
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#12 Postby SFLcane » Mon Jul 22, 2013 10:28 am

With trofiness of the eastcoast can't see how this isn't recurved.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#13 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 22, 2013 10:32 am

SFLcane wrote:With trofiness of the eastcoast can't see how this isn't recurved.


Hi Adrian. Recurve from East coast of U.S but what about the NE Caribbean?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#14 Postby Riptide » Mon Jul 22, 2013 10:34 am

SFLcane wrote:With trofiness of the eastcoast can't see how this isn't recurved.

You would be surprised at what is possible during this pattern. Needs to be watched if it develops late or a strong ridge appears downstream.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#15 Postby SFLcane » Mon Jul 22, 2013 10:34 am

cycloneye wrote:
SFLcane wrote:With trofiness of the eastcoast can't see how this isn't recurved.


Hi Adrian. Recurve from East coast of U.S but what about the NE Caribbean?


Could have some impacts there yes but conditions look rough. Anything before the real season starts in August is just a bonus.
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#16 Postby Gustywind » Mon Jul 22, 2013 10:39 am

Keeping an Eye on the Tropical Atlantic

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

July 22, 2013; 7:50 AM

:rarrow: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... l/15553914

A tropical wave off the coast of Africa is strong enough to develop into an organized tropical system, but a significant obstacle lies in its way.

That obstacle is in the form of dry and dusty air streaming across the eastern Atlantic Ocean from Africa's Sahara Desert.

Without this Saharan dust present, concern would be high for the wave to quickly strengthen into Tropical Storm Dorian.

Saharan dust is quite warm and able to rise into the upper levels of the atmosphere over the Atlantic, putting a lid on thunderstorm activity within tropical systems.

Development is not expected from the tropical wave shown moving through the eastern Caribbean.

The absence of those thunderstorms prevents tropical waves from maturing into tropical storms. Substantial dry air can also cause organized tropical storms and hurricanes to weaken.

Despite the immediate obstacle of the Saharan dust, AccuWeather.com meteorologists are not ruling out the possibility of the wave eventually strengthening.

If the wave survives its track through the Saharan dust and maintains a westward track, the window of opportunity for development could open as the wave approaches the Leeward Islands next weekend.

Less in the way of the dry and dusty air will likely be present across the central Atlantic at that time.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#17 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 22, 2013 10:46 am

Discussion of 98L by Dr Jeff Masters.

A strong and well-organized tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on Monday, and has been designated 98L by NHC. This disturbance is headed west at 10 - 15 mph, and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear. A large amount of dry air lies to the north and west of 98L, and will likely interfere with development. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will stay in the moderate range through Thursday, then rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, on Friday and Saturday. Ocean temperature are warm off the coast of Africa (27 - 28°C,), but will cool to 25 - 26°C on Tuesday through Thursday, a temperature that is quite marginal for development. None of the computer models predict that 98L will develop, not even the usually aggressive Canadian (CMC) model. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 98L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. 98L should maintain a west to west-northwest track through the week, and may bring heavy rains and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands beginning on Saturday night.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#18 Postby Riptide » Mon Jul 22, 2013 10:51 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#19 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Jul 22, 2013 10:54 am

other wave could not we need wait aug see some thing stronger
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#20 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jul 22, 2013 10:55 am

If you look at the trough\ridge position on the GFS, this may go fishing missing even the islands, but its about a week away from effecting it so I would still monitor it because if you look at the 850 spin it seems to be initializing too far north

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