ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3581 Postby ozonepete » Sat Aug 03, 2013 3:29 am

It has found a sweet spot where shear is low, mid-level moisture is abundant and SSTs are very high. Look at the convective blowup:

Image

Image
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Re:

#3582 Postby ozonepete » Sat Aug 03, 2013 3:33 am

lester wrote:renumber!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al912013_al042013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201308030807
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END


Yup. You caught it first, Lester. We have TD Dorian again, lol.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3583 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 03, 2013 3:34 am

Does this even become a tropical storm with that lingering shear?
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Meow

#3584 Postby Meow » Sat Aug 03, 2013 3:34 am

According to NHC, it is now officially TD Dorian, again. :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3585 Postby jinftl » Sat Aug 03, 2013 3:38 am

The little engine that could - he is fighting to at least get his name back!

From 5am NHC Discussion:
ALTHOUGH DORIAN COULD BE NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...I HAVE OPTED TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY HIGHER WINDS BY INCREASING THE GUST FACTOR FROM THE STANDARD 40
KT UP TO 45 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...EXCEPT FOR THE MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KT...WHICH IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN
30 KT BY 18-24 HOURS.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3586 Postby caneman » Sat Aug 03, 2013 3:53 am

So where does it go? Did the trough miss it?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3587 Postby ozonepete » Sat Aug 03, 2013 4:00 am

Kingarabian wrote:Does this even become a tropical storm with that lingering shear?


NHC says no, but it wouldn't take much to make TS now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3588 Postby jinftl » Sat Aug 03, 2013 4:00 am

Scary that the Bermuda-Azores high drove him this far west....i hope that doesn't continue to be the pattern as we head into the peak of the season....


THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/05 KT. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVING
NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH.
..AND THEN TURNING NORTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY 72
HOURS...DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
WHEN IT IS LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODEL TVCA.

caneman wrote:So where does it go? Did the trough miss it?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3589 Postby ozonepete » Sat Aug 03, 2013 4:01 am

caneman wrote:So where does it go? Did the trough miss it?


No. It will ride northeastward along the trough.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3590 Postby jinftl » Sat Aug 03, 2013 4:05 am

Agree wouldn't take much, bit less than 50-50 shot per NHC
Image

ozonepete wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Does this even become a tropical storm with that lingering shear?


NHC says no, but it wouldn't take much to make TS now.
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#3591 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Sat Aug 03, 2013 4:12 am

That red circle the NHC has on the TWO for Dorian is weird but funny for some reason.
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#3592 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 03, 2013 4:39 am

Why would they upgrade a decapitated swirl of low clouds? The LLC Is all the way close to the 30th latitude while the MLC is where the convection is, and dying. Very weird.
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Re:

#3593 Postby bahamaswx » Sat Aug 03, 2013 4:43 am

NDG wrote:Why would they upgrade a decapitated swirl of low clouds? The LLC Is all the way close to the 30th latitude while the MLC is where the convection is, and dying. Very weird.


Yeah I don't get it either. I guess they have evidence of something else at the surface in the convection.
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Re: Re:

#3594 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 03, 2013 4:48 am

bahamaswx wrote:
NDG wrote:Why would they upgrade a decapitated swirl of low clouds? The LLC Is all the way close to the 30th latitude while the MLC is where the convection is, and dying. Very weird.


Yeah I don't get it either. I guess they have evidence of something else at the surface in the convection.


I don't see nothing but SW winds underneath the convection. The upgrade came a little too late, IMO. This should had been upgraded last night not this morning.
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Re: Re:

#3595 Postby jinftl » Sat Aug 03, 2013 4:58 am

From NHC Discussion - keep in mind, we are talking a td, not hurricane andrew


RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS
OF DORIAN...LOCATED EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA HAS INCREASED
AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ASCAT-B
AND ASCAT-A OVERPASSES AT 0200 UTC AND 0244 UTC...RESPECTIVELY...
DEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF 30-KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT
ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF ISOLATED 35- TO 36-KT VECTORS. IN
ADDITION...DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA FROM THE MELBOURNE FLORIDA WSR-88D
RADAR HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN INDICATING PATCHES OF 35- TO 40-KT
WINDS WITH ISOLATED VALUES TO 45 KT AT 5000-5500 FT ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON ALL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DATA...
ADVISORIES ARE BEING RE-INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN.

bahamaswx wrote:
NDG wrote:Why would they upgrade a decapitated swirl of low clouds? The LLC Is all the way close to the 30th latitude while the MLC is where the convection is, and dying. Very weird.


Yeah I don't get it either. I guess they have evidence of something else at the surface in the convection.
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Re: Re:

#3596 Postby weatherwindow » Sat Aug 03, 2013 4:59 am

NDG wrote:
bahamaswx wrote:
NDG wrote:Why would they upgrade a decapitated swirl of low clouds? The LLC Is all the way close to the 30th latitude while the MLC is where the convection is, and dying. Very weird.


Yeah I don't get it either. I guess they have evidence of something else at the surface in the convection.


I don't see nothing but SW winds underneath the convection. The upgrade came a little too late, IMO. This should had been upgraded last night not this morning.


Good morning, NDG et al....now a little humor is in order..the reason we have Dorian this morning...drum roll...is that Stacy Stewart, our favorite duty specialist, had the helm... and since no one has posted it yet here the initial discussion 8-) ...Grtz from KW, Rich...Oops, sorry didnt see it above..PS..Question of day: if Avila was on duty would Dorian have been given a pass? :D

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0838.shtml
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Advisories

#3597 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 03, 2013 5:07 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
500 AM AST SAT AUG 03 2013

...DORIAN REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION EAST OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 79.2W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...DORIAN
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
UNITED STATES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 MB...29.91 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
500 AM AST SAT AUG 03 2013

RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS
OF DORIAN...LOCATED EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA HAS INCREASED
AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ASCAT-B
AND ASCAT-A OVERPASSES AT 0200 UTC AND 0244 UTC...RESPECTIVELY...
DEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF 30-KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT
ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF ISOLATED 35- TO 36-KT VECTORS. IN
ADDITION...DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA FROM THE MELBOURNE FLORIDA WSR-88D
RADAR HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN INDICATING PATCHES OF 35- TO 40-KT
WINDS WITH ISOLATED VALUES TO 45 KT AT 5000-5500 FT ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON ALL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DATA...
ADVISORIES ARE BEING RE-INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN.

AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BEING ASSIGNED TO DORIAN BASED ON
THE LARGER-SCALE WIND FIELD NOTED IN ASCAT DATA. ALTHOUGH DORIAN
COULD BE NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...I HAVE OPTED TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY HIGHER WINDS BY INCREASING THE GUST FACTOR FROM THE STANDARD 40
KT UP TO 45 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...EXCEPT FOR THE MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KT...WHICH IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN
30 KT BY 18-24 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH
GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER DUE TO THE EXPECTED STRONGER WIND
SHEAR. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT DORIAN COULD SHEAR APART AND
WEAKEN SOONER THAN FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL ICON.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/05 KT. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVING
NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH...AND THEN TURNING NORTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY 72
HOURS...DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
WHEN IT IS LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODEL TVCA.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF DORIAN DOES BECOME A MINIMAL TROPICAL
STORM DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE...
WHICH WOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS OR
WATCHES FOR ANY LAND AREAS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 28.7N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 29.9N 78.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 31.4N 76.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 33.0N 72.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 35.2N 67.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Depression- Discussion

#3598 Postby weatherwindow » Sat Aug 03, 2013 5:09 am

Good morning, Luis...
First, can you change the header?... Secondly, note that TD Dorian is already moving east of due north..010deg..so the trof is already beginning to pick it up...Grtz from KW, Rich...PS Luis, ahead of me again :oops:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0832.shtml
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#3599 Postby jinftl » Sat Aug 03, 2013 5:12 am

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Depression- Discussion

#3600 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 03, 2013 5:15 am

weatherwindow wrote:Good morning, Luis...
First, can you change the header?... Secondly, note that TD Dorian is already moving east of due north..010deg..so the trof is already beginning to pick it up...Grtz from KW, Rich...PS Luis, ahead of me again :oops:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0832.shtml


Good morning Rich. Apparently,there were no other moderators to change the title until I woke up and came here but is all fixed with all the Dorian threads. :)
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