ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8756
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

#3621 Postby artist » Sat Aug 03, 2013 8:32 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
weatherwindow
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 900
Joined: Mon Sep 20, 2004 9:48 am
Location: key west/ft lauderdale

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#3622 Postby weatherwindow » Sat Aug 03, 2013 8:34 am

cycloneye wrote:12z Best Track confirms the naked swirl.

AL, 04, 2013080312, , BEST, 0, 301N, 788W, 30, 1013, TD


Hi again Luis.....Just guessing here. IMO, they may for the sake of continuity hang onto it for another advisory as long as the convection persists(even though it is obviously removed from the naked LLC). I am having IT issues this am and havent been able to access some of my regular sources, can someone comment on the vitality of the MLC? Thanks in advance...Grtz from KW, Rich
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 17898
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#3623 Postby wxman57 » Sat Aug 03, 2013 8:36 am

Plenty of surface obs around "TD Dorian". No significant wind, no squalls within 100 miles of the weak swirl. And the swirl appears to be slowly dissipating. It does not meet the qualifications for calling it a TD. It was initialized in the wrong location on the morning advisory.
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 13540
Age: 55
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#3624 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 03, 2013 8:38 am

Live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=7

Latest, and hopefully the last.

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

Terry
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1450
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 8:25 pm
Location: Lakeland and Anna Maria Island, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#3625 Postby Terry » Sat Aug 03, 2013 8:42 am

At least Dorian gave us something to watch and discuss and speculate about for a good long while.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20378
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#3626 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 03, 2013 8:46 am

I agree this is not a tropical depression given the low-level swirl removed far north from the convection. Not sure why it was upgraded especially being so weak and no threat to any land areas.
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9925
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#3627 Postby Sanibel » Sat Aug 03, 2013 8:56 am

Probably meets all the criteria for TD even though badly displaced.


Maybe it will burst on the way out along the trough edge.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 17898
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#3628 Postby wxman57 » Sat Aug 03, 2013 8:57 am

Sanibel wrote:Probably meets all the criteria for TD even though badly displaced.


Maybe it will burst on the way out along the trough edge.


I believe that organized convection around a center is a requirement. It certainly doesn't meet that requirement.
0 likes   

User avatar
tailgater
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3027
Joined: Sun Jul 11, 2004 9:13 pm
Location: St. Amant La.

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#3629 Postby tailgater » Sat Aug 03, 2013 8:59 am

Sanibel wrote:Probably meets all the criteria for TD even though badly displaced.


Maybe it will burst on the way out along the trough edge.


Also, it was a lot closer to the convection when they renumbered him @ 3:15 this morning.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8756
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#3630 Postby artist » Sat Aug 03, 2013 9:04 am

tailgater wrote:
Sanibel wrote:Probably meets all the criteria for TD even though badly displaced.


Maybe it will burst on the way out along the trough edge.


Also, it was a lot closer to the convection when they renumbered him @ 3:15 this morning.

yep, they used ascat passes from around 0200 UTC if I am not mistaken -

ASCAT-A OVERPASSES AT 0200 UTC AND 0244 UTC...RESPECTIVELY...
DEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF 30-KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT
ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF ISOLATED 35- TO 36-KT VECTORS. IN
ADDITION...DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA FROM THE MELBOURNE FLORIDA WSR-88D
RADAR HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN INDICATING PATCHES OF 35- TO 40-KT
WINDS WITH ISOLATED VALUES TO 45 KT AT 5000-5500 FT ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON ALL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DATA...
ADVISORIES ARE BEING RE-INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN.

and it is now 1403 UTC, the above pass was from 1312 utc
0 likes   

Airboy
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 243
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2011 10:41 am

Re:

#3631 Postby Airboy » Sat Aug 03, 2013 9:08 am

artist wrote:Image



Don't that not indicate some kind circulation more south of the position of the "naked circulation" seen on visible? (comparing the time stamps)
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3009
Age: 40
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Pompano Beach, Florida

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#3632 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 03, 2013 9:12 am

Ah pesky little thing shouldn't bother anyone on its trip out to sea. Hopefully this is the last of these kinda storms.

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/2km/index.php?type=SE_Atlantic-vis-12
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 112114
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re:

#3633 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 03, 2013 9:12 am

artist wrote:http://i44.tinypic.com/2eupfl5.png


Hi artist. That pass was made yesterday at 11:30 AM EDT.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8756
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

Re: Re:

#3634 Postby artist » Sat Aug 03, 2013 9:16 am

cycloneye wrote:
artist wrote:http://i44.tinypic.com/2eupfl5.png


Hi artist. That pass was made yesterday at 11:30 AM EDT.

got it, thank you. How can I tell? It said 1312 utc 8/3 and when I look at radar it stated it is 8/3 1324 utc (approx) without looking it back up. How can I tell?
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 112114
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Re:

#3635 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 03, 2013 9:18 am

artist wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
artist wrote:http://i44.tinypic.com/2eupfl5.png


Hi artist. That pass was made yesterday at 11:30 AM EDT.

got it, thank you. How can I tell? It said 1312 utc 8/3 and when I look at radar it stated it is 8/3 1324 utc (approx) without looking it back up. How can I tell?


The pink numbers at the bottom are the catch :) 15:30 UTC to 15:31 is 11:30 AM EDT to 11:31 AM EDT.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 26962
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#3636 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 03, 2013 9:18 am

That ASCAT pass suggests a second circulation in the convection...
0 likes   

User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8756
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

Re: Re:

#3637 Postby artist » Sat Aug 03, 2013 9:22 am

quote="cycloneye"Hi artist. That pass was made yesterday at 11:30 AM EDT.quote
artist wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
artist wrote:http://i44.tinypic.com/2eupfl5.png


got it, thank you. How can I tell? It said 1312 utc 8/3 and when I look at radar it stated it is 8/3 1324 utc (approx) without looking it back up. How can I tell?


The pink numbers at the bottom are the catch :) 15:30 UTC to 15:31 is 11:30 AM EDT to 11:31 AM EDT.

artist - Now I see it, so you can't go by the time listed but by the time listed for the sectors along the bottom of the pass (which I never noticed before) Thank you. Hopefully others will profit from this bit of wisdom from you as well!
0 likes   

User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8756
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

#3638 Postby artist » Sat Aug 03, 2013 9:27 am

so this is the pass the NHC was referring to ( which was somewhat later than the above one I posted, but still hours ago -

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1227
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

#3639 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Aug 03, 2013 9:28 am

Well Dorian got his thirty seconds of fame. Circulation is far from the convection now.
0 likes   
I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 112114
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Advisories

#3640 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 03, 2013 9:47 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 03 2013

STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR BECAME ESTABLISHED OVER THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE EARLY MORNING...AND FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SEPARATED FROM THE
DEEP CONVECTION. MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL
SOUTH OF THE CENTER...WHICH CONSISTS OF A TIGHT CIRCULATION OF LOW
CLOUDS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOT MORE THAN 30 KNOTS AND THESE WINDS
ARE OCCURING IN A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. GIVEN
THE PREVAILING STRONG SHEAR...THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR MERGE WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH LATER
TODAY. THE DEPRESSION OR THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 12 TO 15 KNOTS AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES
SOUTHEAST COAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 30.6N 78.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 32.1N 77.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 04/1200Z 34.0N 73.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0000Z 37.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “2013”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest