WPAC: JEBI - Severe Tropical Storm

[Typhoon Hunter]

Currently between Mindanao and Palau. Models starting to show some consensus with this, GFS, UKMET, NAVGEM and CMC have it crossing the Philippines and entering S China Sea where it develops further. Worth watching closely...



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[mrbagyo]

JTWC:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.3N 130.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 290 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KOROR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
A 260023Z METOP-B IMAGE INDICATES FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING BROADLY INTO A POORLY-DEFINED LLCC. A 251415Z OCEANSAT
IMAGE SHOWED AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SST (29 TO 30 CELSIUS), EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL NEAR 18N 126E, AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. A 26/00Z SHIP OBSERVATION, LOCATED ABOUT 115 NM
WEST OF THE CENTER, INDICATES NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 16 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

JMA:


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[RobWESTPACWX]

I just typed up some information on this.

Big thing is that ASCAT imagery shows the circulation now. Will it develop in to something bigger? Probably not anything to large at least by my thoughts. But! There is a good chance of floods in the PI.

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/20 ... r-outlook/

[RobWESTPACWX]

Here is a look at the ASCAT

[RobWESTPACWX]

Latest NAVGEM run would be worst, a slow moving storm off the east coast. JMA expects a similar output over the weekend as well. (I think it will move farther west)

[mrbagyo]

upgraded to medium.
very little movement? I don't know if I will agree with the location.

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.3N
130.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 129.8E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF KOROR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A BROAD AND SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY. A 252308Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES BROKEN AND
DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDING LOOSELY WRAPPING INTO A BROAD AND
POORLY-DEFINED LLCC. A 260108Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-
15 KNOTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 CELSIUS), AND
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW WHICH IS FURTHER BEING ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Ive seen a few different spots on the location. The ASCAT imagery shows just west of Palau, JMA has it somewhere south east of Mindanao. I think thats a little nutty though.

[senorpepr]

JMA has downgraded the area back into a Low Pressure Area:

WWJP25 RJTD 261200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 261200.
WARNING VALID 271200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 37N 141E 40N 142E
42N 140E 42N 143E 51N 157E 56N 163E 60N 164E 60N 180E 40N 180E 38N
156E 40N 149E 37N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 40N 135E EAST SLOWLY.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 39N 155E WEST SLOWLY.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 57N 171E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 50N 179E NNW 20 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 09N 130E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 23N 130E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 48N 165E ESE 10 KT.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 34N 179W WEST SLOWLY.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.4N
129.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 127.2E, APPROXIMATELY 305 NM EAST
OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS BROAD TURNING OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA WITH NO DISCERNABLE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 262103Z 85 GHZ SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES DISORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE AREA WITH
CONVECTION WANING IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) AND THE LOSS OF A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INFLUENCE FROM A WEAKENING TUTT CELL TO THE
NORTHWEST. LATEST MODEL RUNS DO INDICATE AN EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LLCC BUT NOT UNTIL ENTERING THE SOUTH CHINA SEA APPROXIMATELY
THREE TO FOUR DAYS FROM NOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE POOR LLCC STRUCTURE AND
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

[dexterlabio]

back to a minor TD from JMA

[mrbagyo]

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.3N
125.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 123.9E, APPROXIMATELY 35 NM NORTH
OF CEBU CITY, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ACTIVE AREA OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ANIMATED
COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE PHILIPPINES DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE
AND TECHNOLOGY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED, ALBEIT HEAVY, RAIN BANDS
LOOSELY ROTATING AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CEBU, MAASIN, AND SURIGAO CITY
INDICATE WINDS ARE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
(MSLP) VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1008-1009 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THIS AREA IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER A DIFFLUENT
ANTICYCLONE, WITH LIGHT (10-KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A VORTEX FROM THIS AREA
MOVING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, WITH GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND MSLP IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.



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GFS, NAVGEMS and CMC are developing this one into a TC in the South China Sea...
there are already some flood reports in the nation's capital, Manila

[senorpepr]

Toward the end of this video I touch on 91W. Wouldn't be surprised if this developed further once it gets into the South China Sea. Flooding throughout the Philippines will be the concern for the near-term.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76dHEngrpMQ[/youtube]

[senorpepr]

WWJP25 RJTD 281200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 281200.
WARNING VALID 291200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 38N 141E 40N 142E
41N 141E 47N 153E 55N 162E 60N 165E 60N 180E 38N 180E 38N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 33N 157E ENE 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 13N 123E WNW 10 KT.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 24N 137E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 47N 168E ESE SLOWLY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 31N 178E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 33N 111E TO 37N 118E 40N 124E 39N 131E 37N
136E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[euro6208]

very broad but disorganized system...i don't see any LLCC...

[Typhoon Hunter]

Warned TD from JMA now forecasting upgrade to TS within 24 hours. Looks like scrambled eggs to me so I'd be surprised if we see a named storm in 24 hours, models all over the place too. Urghhh

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.9N
123.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 118.5E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
ACTIVE AREA OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ANIMATED COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY
FROM THE PHILIPPINES DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY DEPICTS
DISORGANIZED, ALBEIT HEAVY, RAIN BANDS LOOSELY ROTATING AROUND A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THIS AREA IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER A SUBTROPICAL HIGH
WITH LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW.
GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A VORTEX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TRACKING
INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, ALTHOUGH ALL HAVE
REDUCED THEIR FORECAST MAXIMUM INTENSTIIES TO BELOW 35 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Love how JTWC has it as a MED and JMA has it as a TD. LOL Yap! It is what it is. As they say here in Japan.

Shoganai, (Cant help it)

[RobWESTPACWX]

Tons of Convection.. 0 organization.

[RobWESTPACWX]

PAGASA now named this TD Jolina.

[mrbagyo]

slowly consolidating...southwestern rainband looks promising
nice overall outflow. we should see a TC by tomorrow afternoon or evening but it could be earlier.