WPAC: JEBI - Severe Tropical Storm

[mrbagyo]

very strong convection, this system will bring a LOT of rain.
cloudiness is covering the whole area of the South China Sea because of the monsoon and Jebi

[wxman57]

Not sure where the JTWC is getting the 65NM TS wind radii. I'm measuring somewhere between 180NM and 225NM to the NE and S.

[vrif]

ASCAT 1332Z pass showing the left portion of TS JEBI.
The corresponding radar composite is below.

[vrif]

OSCAT 1542Z pass.
That is one large menacing wind field.

[vrif]

From the radar loop, I think I see smaller vortices moving inside the eye.


WDPN31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (JEBI) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 483 NM EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH A CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). EIR CURRENTLY SHOWS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LLCC POSITIONED ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF A NEAR-SYMMETRIC
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 011822Z MHS IMAGE SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE WEST QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF THE LLCC
WITH SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE EXPOSED, NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON A
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS)
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY
EQUATORWARD. TS 09W IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD AN
EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED OVER
SOUTHERN CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TS 09W IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE AFOREMENTIONED STR OVER SOUTHERN
CHINA. UPPER-AIR SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM (WUZHOU AND KING'S PARK) AND A STRONG 500MB STR EXTENDING
WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN THAILAND. THERE IS A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RIDING NORTH OF THE STR BUT IT IS FILLING AND PROPAGATING
NORTHEASTWARD AND APPEARS TO BE HAVING NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, INCLUDING ENSEMBLE
DATA, REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS PRIOR TO TRACKING OVER
HAINAN ISLAND. FRICTION DUE TO LAND INTERACTION OVER HAINAN WILL
CAUSE A SLIGHT WEAKENING AS IT RE-EMERGES OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN
PRIOR TO TAU 36. TS 09W WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM
NEAR TAU 48 AND WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO THE INCREASED
FRICTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN.//
NNNN

[vrif]

WTPQ30 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 1309 JEBI (1309)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 020000 UTC IS FAIR.
TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE.
TS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE TO WEST-NORTHWEST.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

All the other agencies have upgraded the intensity for JEBI except for JMA.

[vrif]

The eye is now visible.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Starting to look very typhoon like!



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Edit: Vrif you beat me to it!

[vrif]

JMA just upgraded TS JEBI to STS JEBI



STS 1309 (JEBI)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 2 August 2013
<Analyses at 02/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N18°50'(18.8°)
E111°50'(111.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE330km(180NM)
NW220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 02/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°55'(19.9°)
E109°30'(109.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
<Forecast for 03/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°00'(21.0°)
E107°25'(107.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
<Forecast for 04/06 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N22°10'(22.2°)
E103°35'(103.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)


edit: The official WTPQ20

WTPQ20 RJTD 020600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1309 JEBI (1309) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020600UTC 18.8N 111.8E FAIR
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 030600UTC 21.0N 107.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 040600UTC 22.2N 103.6E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[vrif]

OSCAT 0400Z pass

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Haikou, Hainan had a minimum pressure of 978 hPa at 9:00 PM

[vrif]

OSCAT 1631Z pass and landfall loop as it crossed Hainan.

[vrif]

WTPQ20 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1309 JEBI (1309) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021800UTC 20.3N 109.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 031800UTC 22.3N 103.7E 75NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[vrif]

Beihai radar loop. TS Jebi crossing the Gulf of Tonkin.

[euro6208]

looks like i missed all the fun tracking jebi which peaked at 60 knots 1 min, just shy of typhoon strength...but based on images and dvorak reaching 4.0, she likely peaked at 75 knots...






The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[mrbagyo]

Jebi must be dropping copious amount of rain over northern Vietnam



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[vrif]

JTWC's Final Warning.

WTPN31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (JEBI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 21.8N 106.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 106.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 22.9N 103.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 23.6N 100.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 105.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 09W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 56 NM NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE THAT HAS TRACKED INLAND
OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM. THE INTERACTION WITH LAND IS BEGINNING TO
WEAKEN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AS CURVED BANDING HAS
BECOME LESS DEFINED AND CONVECTION HAS SHALLOWED. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-
20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), BUT CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY IN THE EQUATORWARD DIRECTION. TS 09W
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRICTIONAL EFFECTS
OVER LAND AND INCREASING VWS WILL ERODE THE SYSTEM AND LEAD TO ITS
DISSIPATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN