CPAC: GIL - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Satellite estimates remain the same @ 4.5 from both agencies.

[cycloneye]

Up to 75kts.

EP, 07, 2013080200, , BEST, 0, 144N, 1259W, 75, 985, HU

[Yellow Evan]

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
800 PM PDT THU AUG 01 2013

THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL STRONG BURSTS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
OF GIL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER
THAN -80C. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE IS A
LITTLE RAGGED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB
AND 77 KT FROM SAB. DUE TO THE RAGGED APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO 75 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12...A LITTLE FASTER THAN EARLIER. GIL IS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THIS
SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS AS
SHOWN BY THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE. ONE CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS TO NOW SHOW A SOUTH OF WEST MOTION BETWEEN
DAYS 4-5...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS...THE UKMET...THE
ECMWF...AND THE GFS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.

THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SINCE
THE LAST ADVISORY...WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS CURRENTLY
FORECASTING INTENSITIES 10-20 KT STRONGER AT ALL FORECAST TIMES
THAN THOSE FROM 6 HR AGO. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
NOT TOTALLY FOLLOW THIS CHANGE...BUT IT WILL SHOW MODEST
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS
OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTER THAT...GIL IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH COOLER SSTS NEAR 140W...WHICH IS FORECAST TO CAUSE
WEAKENING. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE. WHILE THE NEW FORECAST INCREASES THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST INTENSITIES BY 5-10 KT...IT LIES WELL BELOW THE SHIPS AND
LGEM GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 14.4N 126.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 14.5N 127.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 14.6N 129.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 14.7N 131.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 14.7N 132.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 14.5N 135.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 14.5N 138.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 14.0N 142.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[supercane4867]

00Z GFS has Gil south of Hawaii by day 9

[Yellow Evan]

00Z GFS has Gil south of Hawaii by day 9

I doubt it will be a TC by then.

[Kingarabian]

Interesting how Flossie was drenched in dry air and it didn't affect it as much... And Gil who seemingly is in a moister environment is having issues.

[Kingarabian]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 020854
TCDEP2

HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 02 2013

GIL HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH THE
COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION SHRINKING. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS A TONGUE OF DRIER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE EAST SIDE OF
THE CIRCULATION...WHICH IS LIKELY THE CAUSE OF THE DEGRADED
SATELLITE APPEARANCE. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 75 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES...BUT
THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS GIL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN SIMILAR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. BEYOND A COUPLE OF
DAYS...SLOW WEAKENING IS PREDICTED WHEN GIL MOVES OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHEAR. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 11 KT ON THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT...A
HEADING A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST IS ANTICIPATED AS THE RIDGE
EXPANDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. ONLY SMALL
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST LIES VERY NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 14.6N 127.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 14.7N 128.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 14.9N 130.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 15.1N 131.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 15.0N 133.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 14.5N 136.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 14.0N 139.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 14.0N 142.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[wxman57]

Weakening very fast. Looks terrible on satellite. Likely well below hurricane strength. So much for 75kt winds for 48 more hours...

[otowntiger]

Weakening very fast. Looks terrible on satellite. Likely well below hurricane strength. So much for 75kt winds for 48 more hours...

that's good news!

[Yellow Evan]

Weakening very fast. Looks terrible on satellite. Likely well below hurricane strength. So much for 75kt winds for 48 more hours...

that's good news!

It does not appear to be threatening land

but since no one posting the disco


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 021433
TCDEP2

HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 02 2013

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY...AND I DO NOT HAVE
A GOOD REASON TO EXPLAIN IT SINCE BOTH SHEAR AND SSTS HAVE BEEN
RULED OUT AS THE CAUSE. THE SHEAR IS LOW ACCORDING TO THE DIAGNOSIS
PROVIDED BY THE SHIPS AND THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND GIL IS MOVING
OVER 27.5 DEGREES CELSIUS WATERS.

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE DUE TO DVORAK
CONSTRAINTS...BUT GIVEN THE APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 65 KNOTS AND THAT IS PROBABLY
GENEROUS. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY HOSTILE...GIL
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 36
HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS GIL
APPROACHES COOLER WATERS AND MORE STABLE AIR.

THE CENTER WAS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGES BUT
RECENT SSMI MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT GIL IS RIGHT ON TRACK. THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 270 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL-ESTABLISHED DEEP EASTERLY FLOW...A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST THROUGH 5 DAYS. AS GIL WEAKENS AND
BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...IT COULD MOVE SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF DUE WEST. THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE BECOMES MUCH LARGER
BEYOND 72 HOURS...WITH SEVERAL MODELS TAKING GIL TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND OTHER MODELS FORECASTING GIL TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS MAKES THE LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 14.6N 128.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 14.6N 129.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 14.5N 131.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 14.5N 132.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 14.5N 134.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 14.5N 137.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 14.0N 140.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 13.5N 143.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Kingarabian]

I doubt dry air is the sole reason for its weakening.

[Yellow Evan]

I doubt dry air is the sole reason for its weakening.

I think it is its proximity to the ITCZ.

[cycloneye]

Downgraded to Tropical Storm.


TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 02 2013

ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE. GIL CONSISTS OF AN
IRREGULAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVOID OF BANDING FEATURES WITH
LIMITED OUTFLOW. SINCE THE SATELLITE INTENISTY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN
GRADUALLY DECREASING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN
TO 60 KNOTS. GIVEN THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY
HOSTILE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS INDICATED IN THE THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS GIL BEGIN TO
APPROACH COOLER WATERS AND MORE STABLE AIR.

THE CENTER WAS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES
EARLIER...BUT WITH THE HELP OF RECENT MICROWAVE DATA...WE HAVE
DETERMINED THAT THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS ARE VERTICALLY
DISPLACED...BUT STILL EMBEDDED OR VERY NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION. IN
ADDITION...MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY LEAD TO AN INITIAL
MOTION OF 270 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. GIL IS BEING STEERED BY A
WELL-ESTABLISHED EASTERLY FLOW...AND SINCE THIS FLOW PATTERN IS NOT
FORECAST TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS. AS GIL WEAKENS AND BECOMES
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...IT COULD MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE
WEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS INDICATED BY THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 14.6N 129.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 14.7N 130.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 14.7N 132.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 14.7N 133.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 14.5N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 14.0N 138.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 13.5N 141.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 13.5N 144.5W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[galaxy401]

Another hurricane to fail to strengthen beyond category 1. Probably get the stronger storms soon.

[Kingarabian]

Maybe it's due to the worldwide lack of instability?

[Yellow Evan]

Maybe it's due to the worldwide lack of instability?

Probs right. What if I told you that after Soulik, the 2nd strongest NHEM storm thus far was Cosme.

[Cyclenall]

Weakening very fast. Looks terrible on satellite. Likely well below hurricane strength. So much for 75kt winds for 48 more hours...

that's par for the course news!

Fixed.

Another hurricane to fail to strengthen beyond category 1. Probably get the stronger storms soon.

I'm starting to get very pessimistic, not that I was planning on following Epac systems closely or anything but man...another Epac stinker. I'm going to post something in one of the Epac or seasonal numbers topics about both the Atlantic and Epac's lack of powerful storms.

Probs right. What if I told you that after Soulik, the 2nd strongest NHEM storm thus far was Cosme.

Embarrassing. Even the Wpac this year seems pretty dismal so far IMO.

[Kingarabian]

In 24 hours it goes from TD to Cat.1:


In 24 hours it goes from Cat.1 to poof.

[Yellow Evan]

In 24 hours it goes from TD to Cat.1:


In 24 hours it goes from Cat.1 to poof.

Beatriz 11 was worse IMO.