CPAC: GIL - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 02 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT GIL HAS SHEARED APART...WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECOMING EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF A DECAYING
MID/UPPER-LEVEL CENTER. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO 20 KT OF
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS ANALYZED BY CIMSS. AT
THIS TIME...THERE IS LITTLE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CYCLONE...WHICH MAKES THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT
FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 55 KT...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THIS IS
GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/10. GIL IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF
THE STORM. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN
SOME DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
AND WEAKENS. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER GIL GENERALLY WESTWARD
FOR 24-36 HR...FOLLOWED BY A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION. A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS THE GFS...WITH SHOWS GIL SLOWING AND TURNING
NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 72 HR DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO
ITS EAST AND NORTH. THIS SOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME. THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
LIES A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER 36 HR.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE. FIRST...WHILE ALL THE
GUIDANCE FORECASTS WEAKENING DURING THE FIRST 48-72 HR...THE
SHIPS FORECAST SEEMS TO BE BASED ON LESS SHEAR THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY OCCURRING. THUS...THE SHIPS FORECAST OF KEEPING GIL A
TROPICAL STORM FOR 5 DAYS COULD BE OPTIMISTIC. SECOND...WHILE THE
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER A MORE
FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BY 72 HR...NONE OF THEM SHOW MUCH
INTENSIFICATION AS A RESULT. THIRD...SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST THE DISTURBANCE EAST OF GIL DEVELOPING AND BECOMING THE
MORE DOMINANT SYSTEM IN THE AREA. FINALLY...THERE IS AN INCREASING
POSSIBILITY THAT THIS VERY SMALL CYCLONE MAY NOT SURVIVE TO REACH
THE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR FASTER WEAKENING THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HR...
FOLLOWED BY A SLOWER WEAKENING THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE NEW
FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH LGEM THROUGH 48 HR...THEN IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 14.9N 130.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 14.9N 131.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 14.8N 133.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 14.6N 134.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 14.3N 136.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 13.5N 139.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 13.0N 142.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 13.0N 145.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Annie Oakley]

"THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 55 KT...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THIS IS
GENEROUS."


Nice

[Kingarabian]

Nice blow up of convection near the center.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013

ALTHOUGH SEVERAL BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE OCCURED NEAR THE
CENTER OF GIL DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE STRUCTURE IS STILL
BEING DISTRUPTED BY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS AVERAGE TO ABOUT 50 KT...AND GIVEN
THAT THE CLOUD STRUCTURE HAS NOT CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT AT THAT VALUE. ALL OF
THE INTENSITY MODELS INDICATE THAT GIL WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST. AFTER THAT TIME...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT GIL
WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW...WHILE THE STATISTICAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT SOME RESTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR...PRIMARILY DUE TO
DECREASING SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO
POSSIBILITIES AND IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

GIL HAS BEEN MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/10. THE GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST THAT THIS RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLOENN TO TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED AS GIL
WEAKENS AND IS STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AND THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS CENTERED AROUND THE PAST COUPLE NHC FORECASTS.
THE NEW FORECAST IS THEREFORE MERELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 15.0N 132.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 15.0N 133.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 14.8N 135.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 14.4N 136.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 14.0N 138.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 13.2N 140.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 13.0N 143.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 13.0N 147.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/ZELINSKY

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 032034
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013

DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO BURST INTERMITTENTLY NEAR THE
CENTER OF GIL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DVORAK CI ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 35 TO 65 KT...A DISCREPANCY THAT CAN BE EXPLAINED IN
PART BY THE PULSATING NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY HAS
BEEN HELD AT 50 KT AS A CONSERVATIVE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE
ESTIMATES...HOWEVER BASED ON LONG-TERM TRENDS...THIS MAY BE
GENEROUS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS NOT COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. THE STATISTICAL MODELS FORECAST THAT THE INTENSITY WILL
NOT CHANGE MUCH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THAT
STRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR AFTER THAT. THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR IS SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS
ANALYSIS INDICATES...WHICH MAY EXPLAIN WHY THE STATISTICAL MODELS
FORECAST INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN
CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY...AND LEANS TOWARD THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECAST OF GRADUAL WEAKENING.

GIL CONTINUES TO MOVE ON A STEADY WESTWARD HEADING AT 11 KT...
STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE THAT THIS RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OVER
THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS ONCE AGAIN A
LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. IN FACT...THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODEL DAY 5 FORECAST POSITIONS ARE NEARLY 600 MILES
APART. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE MODELS SEEMS TO BE THE
DEPTH OF THE CIRCULATION. THE ECMWF FORECASTS A MUCH SHALLOWER
SYSTEM THAT IS STEERED PRIMARILY BY LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES...WHILE
THE GFS FORECASTS A DEEPER CYCLONE THAT SLOWS AND TURNS TOWARD THE
NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...
AND CALLS FOR WESTWARD MOTION AFTER DAY 3...IN LINE WITH THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOR A WEAKER CYCLONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 15.3N 133.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 15.3N 134.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 14.8N 136.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 14.4N 137.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 13.9N 139.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 13.0N 142.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 13.0N 145.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 13.0N 148.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/ZELINSKY

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 07, 2013080400, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1339W, 45, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 30, 30, 50, 1011, 120, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, GIL, D,

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013

THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GIL HAS DECREASED AGAIN THIS
EVENING...WITH THE REMAINING CONVECTION IN A SMALL CLUSTER NEAR THE
CENTER AND IN SMALL BANDS NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE INNER CORE OF THE CYCLONE HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 45 KT...AND DATA FROM THE INDIAN OSCAT SCATTEROMETER
SUGGESTS THIS COULD BE GENEROUS.

THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED AND IS NOW 275/8. GIL IS BEING
STEERED BY A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT
THESE FEATURES WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
48 TO 72 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST. AFTER THAT...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN
TURNING THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD. THIS MAY BE DUE IN PART TO THIS
MODEL MAINTAINING A STRONGER CYCLONE AND IN PART TO THE MODEL
FORECAST FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E...CURRENTLY ABOUT 575 N MI
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GIL. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST RELIES ON THE OTHER
GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH SHOW A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AFTER 72 HR. THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES CLOSE
TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCN.

GIL IS ON THE EDGE OF AN AREA OF VERY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
JUST TO ITS NORTH. HOWEVER...AS THE STORM TURNS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
IT SHOULD MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS
SUGGESTING THAT GIL COULD INGEST DRIER AIR. ON THE OTHER HAND...
THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS RESPOND TO THE MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT BY FORECASTING RE-INTENSIFICATION AFTER 48 HR. THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS AND FORECASTS A GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT
5 DAYS...AND IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT GIL COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE
THAT TIME. THE NEW FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 15.3N 134.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 15.0N 135.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 14.4N 136.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 13.9N 138.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 13.4N 139.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 13.0N 142.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 13.0N 145.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 13.0N 148.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Yellow Evan]

Will Gil make it into CPHC AOR? I'm starting to think not.

[galaxy401]

I'm starting to get slightly annoyed they keep saying "this could be generous". If they keep thinking that, then lower it a little more!

[Yellow Evan]

I'm starting to get slightly annoyed they keep saying "this could be generous". If they keep thinking that, then lower it a little more!

I would expect them to lower it to 40 knots, then.

[Yellow Evan]

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. The National Hurricane Center in Miami Florida is issuing advisories on tropical storm Gil, located 1390 miles east-southeast of Hilo Hawaii, under AWIPS header tcpep2 and WMO header WTPA32 KNHC. Gil is expected to cross 140°W into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center area of responsibility by Monday afternoon or evening.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Monday evening.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013

GIL HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT
SEVEN HOURS NOW. A RECENT ASCAT PASS JUST CLIPPED THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE CIRCULATION...AND WHILE IT DID NOT CAPTURE WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE...IT SHOWED THAT THE CIRCULATION IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS BEING LOWERED TO 35 KT MAINLY BASED ON A BLEND OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE LATEST AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES. DUE TO
STABLE AIR...20 KT OF SHEAR...AND BEING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...
GIL MAY NOT SURVIVE MUCH LONGER AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND IF DEEP
CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP SOON...GIL COULD BE DECLARED A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AS SOON AS LATER TODAY.

RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF GIL HAS BEEN
MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...AND A RELATIVELY MINOR RELOCATION WAS
REQUIRED ON THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 250/8 KT.
WITHOUT ANY DEEP CONVECTION...THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING MORE
SHALLOW AND IS BEING STEERED BY A LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED WEST OF CALIFORNIA. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTH
ON THIS CYCLE WITH MOST OF THE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS HAVING
TO DO WITH THE FORWARD SPEED. THE ECMWF IS THE MAIN OUTLIER...
SHOWING GIL BECOMING AN OPEN TROUGH IN 3-4 DAYS AND MOVING MUCH
MORE QUICKLY TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT
NEARLY AS FAST AS THE ECMWF...BUT IT IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE SINCE GIL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 14.6N 135.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 14.2N 136.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 13.7N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/1800Z 13.1N 139.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/0600Z 12.6N 141.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0600Z 12.0N 144.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0600Z 11.5N 148.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0600Z 11.5N 152.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track down to 35kts.

EP, 07, 2013080412, , BEST, 0, 144N, 1354W, 35, 1006, TS

[cycloneye]

ATCF updated the 12z Best Track downgrading to TD.

EP, 07, 2013080412, , BEST, 0, 144N, 1354W, 30, 1007, TD

[wxman57]

Yesterday's ASCAT indicated a poorly-defined LLC and 15-20kt winds. Wasn't even a TS yesterday.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013

A SMALL BAND OF CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FORMED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION OF GIL. OTHERWISE...THE DEPRESSION IS
MOSTLY COMPRISED OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND SOME STABLE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS. SATELLTE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN DROPPING...AND
SUPPORT MAKING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED 30 KT. THERE APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH STABLE AIR AND SHEAR NEAR GIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW DURING THAT
TIME. WHILE THE LGEM/SHIPS/GFDL ARE SHOWING THE CYCLONE EVENTUALLY
RESTRENGTHENING IN A FEW DAYS DUE TO A LESS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...
THERE PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MUCH LEFT OF THE SMALL CIRCULATION OF
GIL BY THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE WEAKER INITIAL WINDS.

THE CURRENT MOTION APPEARS TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...250/8.
A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER
GIL ON THIS GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE SHOULD
FLATTEN OUT IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERHAPS CAUSING A MORE WESTWARD
TURN. THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
GUIDANCE...AND ONLY A SMALL NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO
THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION AT 96 AND 120H.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 14.3N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 13.9N 136.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 13.4N 138.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/0000Z 12.9N 139.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1200Z 12.4N 141.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1200Z 12.0N 144.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1200Z 12.0N 148.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/1200Z 12.0N 152.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Yellow Evan]

Gil won't make it into CPHC AOR anymore IMO.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013

VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW THE CENTER OF GIL MOSTLY EXPOSED ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF A WEAKENING AREA OF CONVECTION. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE SATELLITE
ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. GIL WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY
OR SO DUE TO STABLE AIR NEAR THE CENTER AND PERSISTENT SHEAR.
THERE REMAINS A REMOTE CHANCE THAT GIL COULD MAKE A COMEBACK IN A
FEW DAYS WHEN IT MOVES INTO A MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT...BUT IT
IS DOUBTFUL THE SMALL SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT THAT LONG. THE NEW NHC
FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE.

A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE WITH GIL FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS BENEATH A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. THE
REMNANTS OF THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY TURN WESTWARD BEYOND THAT TIME
WHEN IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRACK
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 14.2N 136.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 13.8N 137.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 13.2N 139.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/0600Z 12.7N 140.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1800Z 12.4N 142.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1800Z 12.3N 145.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1800Z 12.4N 149.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/1800Z 12.5N 153.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Yellow Evan]

Gil has a little bit of convection, so I think they'll keep it on for a little longer.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013

GIL IS MAINTAINING TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS...FOR NOW. A SMALL BURST
OF DEEP CONVECTION WAS NOTED NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED
CENTER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH
DATA FROM AN EARLIER ASCAT OVERPASS AND A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM
TAFB. THE DEPRESSION IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE EASTERLY
SHEAR AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME INCREASE IN SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND
THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THAT
TIME FRAME. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE ENVIRONMENT COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR REINTENSIFICATION SO THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT GIL COULD MAKE A COMEBACK IN SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS SMALL SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT
THAT LONG. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AND
LIES BETWEEN THE HWRF AND LGEM GUIDANCE.

LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION...255/7...CONTINUES. A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF GIL...OR ITS REMNANT
LOW...THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE
THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS NOT
FAR FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE
ECMWF MODEL PREDICTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 14.0N 137.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 13.6N 138.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 13.0N 139.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/1200Z 12.6N 141.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0000Z 12.4N 143.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0000Z 12.5N 146.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/0000Z 12.5N 150.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/0000Z 12.5N 153.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH