EPAC: HENRIETTE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Henriette making a comeback.

[Kingarabian]

The once famed un-favorable Central Pacific is all of a sudden favorable?

[Yellow Evan]

The once famed un-favorable Central Pacific is all of a sudden favorable?

Seems so CPHC AOR is bailing 2013 PHS out.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The Central Pacific has become home to a majority of the upward motion associated with the MJO. This is one of the reasons we've seen systems strengthen or maintain themselves better than expected upon entrance.

[Yellow Evan]

The Central Pacific has become home to a majority of the upward motion associated with the MJO. This is one of the reasons we've seen systems strengthen or maintain themselves better than expected upon entrance.

If it was not for this, I don't think would would have had these past 3 storms. And we would be having a 2010 PHS redux.

[Yellow Evan]

As usual, the CPHC disco is late.

[supercane]

It's not, the CPHC website just doesn't update for some reason. Here it is, very little change:

558
WTPA43 PHFO 100242
TCDCP3

TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082013
500 PM HST FRI AUG 09 2013

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FLARE UP NEAR THE APPARENT LOW LEVEL
CENTER OF HENRIETTE. THE OVERALL APPEARANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS PRETTY MUCH
UNCHANGED WITH A CI OF 3.5 THUS WE WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM AT 55 KT
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/14 KT. GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED...INDICATING A MOTION SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST THROUGH
72 HOURS...AS HENRIETTE MOVES ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE LATEST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK EVENTUALLY TAKES HENRIETTE OVER
INCREASINGLY WARMER WATERS...THE EFFECTS OF PERSISTENT AND
INCREASING SHEAR ON THIS TINY TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CAUSE
GRADUAL WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY ALONG
WITH THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE...WITH HENRIETTE WEAKENING TO A
REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 15.2N 145.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 14.7N 147.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 14.2N 150.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 14.0N 154.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 13.7N 157.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 13.0N 164.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

828
WTPA33 PHFO 100242
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082013
500 PM HST FRI AUG 09 2013

...HENRIETTE CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 145.3W
ABOUT 715 MI...1155 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 925 MI...1495 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 145.3 WEST.
HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...HENRIETTE WILL
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN INTO A DEPRESSION LATE SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.


FORECASTER BURKE

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA43 PHFO 102036
TCDCP3

TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082013
1100 AM HST SAT AUG 10 2013

A COMPACT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS JUST WEST OF THE CENTER
OF HENRIETTE WITH HINTS OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE
EASTERN FLANK. SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE CI
ESTIMATES FROM FIX AGENCIES AND CIMSS ADT CAME IN NEAR 3.0.
THUS...THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF HENRIETTE HAS BEEN HELD AT 45 KT.

INITIAL MOTION FOR HENRIETTE IS 265/18...FOLLOWING CLOSELY ALONG THE
PRIOR FORECAST TRACK. HENRIETTE IS BEING DRIVEN TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST BY DEEP LAYER RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS...AND GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...KEEPING HENRIETTE
ON A SIMILAR BEARING. AS A RESULT...THE TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS
CLOSELY THE LAST PACKAGE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT CHALLENGING. HENRIETTE HAS ENTERED
WATERS WITH SST OF ABOUT 27C...AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT WILL BE
GRADUALLY INCREASING ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. HENRIETTE IS A VERY
SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH MEANS THAT ITS CORE CAN BE DISRUPTED
BY RELATIVELY SMALL CHANGES IN THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HINGING ON THIS...
CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE SHIPS AND ICVN GUIDANCE THROUGH 36 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION
OCCURS AT 96 HOURS...WHICH IS FASTER THAN THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 13.8N 150.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 13.4N 152.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 12.8N 156.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 12.5N 160.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 12.3N 164.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 12.0N 171.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER WROE

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA43 PHFO 110230
TCDCP3

TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082013
500 PM HST SAT AUG 10 2013

DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER COLLAPSED DURING THE DAY...AND
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS SHOWING SIGNS OF REDEVELOPING ALONG THE
NORTHERN FLANK...SATELLITE SIGNATURES SHOW OVERALL WEAKENING. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY FOR HENRIETTE HAS BEEN DROPPED TO 35 KT...WHICH
IS AN AVERAGE OF THE JTWC...SAB...AND CPHC FIXES.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR HENRIETTE REMAINS AT 265/18...FOLLOWING
CLOSELY ALONG RECENT FORECAST TRACKS. HENRIETTE IS BEING DRIVEN
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST BY DEEP LAYER RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...AND GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
KEEPING HENRIETTE ON A SIMILAR BEARING. AS A RESULT...THE TRACK
FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE LAST FEW PACKAGES.

CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST...THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
HENRIETTE IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH MEANS THAT ITS
CORE CAN BE DISRUPTED BY RELATIVELY SMALL CHANGES IN THE
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. HENRIETTE WILL PASS OVER WATERS WITH SST
OF ABOUT 27 OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH INCREASING SST AND
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT FARTHER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. EVEN THOUGH
THERE WILL BE MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DURING THIS TIME...IT
WILL PROBABLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING DUE TO THE SMALL
SIZE OF HENRIETTE. THE WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN ACCELERATED WITH
THIS PACKAGE...DROPPING HENRIETTE TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT
AND TO A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY. THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE SHIPS AND
ICVN GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 13.8N 151.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 13.5N 154.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 13.0N 158.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 12.8N 162.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 12.7N 165.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER WROE

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082013
500 AM HST SUN AUG 11 2013

CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE COMPLETELY DISAPPEARED
AGAIN BY MIDNIGHT HST...BUT A SMALL NEW AREA OF CONVECTION HAS
FORMED SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER SINCE 200 AM HST. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSES FROM SAB AND PHFO HAD ONLY 1.0 AND 1.5 FOR CURRENT
INTENSITY AND JTWC COULD NOT LOCATE THE SYSTEM. BASED ON THE VERY
WEAK SATELLITE SIGNATURE I HAVE DROPPED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 30
KT.

HENRIETTE HAS CONTINUED MOVING WEST QUITE RAPIDLY. AN EAST TO WEST
RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE SYSTEM
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WEST IN THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE. THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT AND THE
CURRENT TRACK FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE.

HENRIETTE IS A VERY SMALL CIRCULATION WITH ONLY INTERMITTANT
CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN IT. UNLESS MORE PERSISTENT CONVECTION
DEVELOPS NEAR THE CYCLONE...HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A
REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 13.6N 156.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 13.4N 159.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 13.2N 162.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 13.0N 166.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

[cycloneye]

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082013
1100 AM HST SUN AUG 11 2013

WHILE PULSES OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE OCCURRED SEVERAL TIMES...
ORGANIZED AND PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF
HENRIETTE HAS BEEN LACKING FOR NEARLY 24 HOURS...AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS A LOW CLOUD SWIRL DISPLACED FAR
FROM LINGERING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. CURRENT
INTENSITY VALUES FROM FIX AGENCIES ARE DOWN TO 1.0 AND 1.5...WITH
ONE AGENCY DEEMING THE SYSTEM UNCLASSIFIABLE...AND RECENT CIMSS
AMSU INTENSITY OUTPUT YIELDED A 25 KT MAXIMUM WIND ESTIMATE.
HENRIETTE HAS ALWAYS BEEN A VERY SMALL SYSTEM...AND WITH THESE DATA
SOURCES STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT THE WARM CORE HAS BEEN SEVERELY
DISRUPTED OR DESTROYED...HENRIETTE IS NOW DEEMED TO BE A
POST-TROPICAL LOW.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY FOR HENRIETTE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER. THE REMNANT WILL CONTINUE ON A WESTERLY
TACK TO THE SOUTH OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS. SINCE IT IS A VERY SMALL SYSTEM...IT
WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR A WARM CORE TO REDEVELOP...EVEN
THOUGH SST VALUES WILL BE INCREASING AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
WEAK. IF REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS...CPHC WILL RESUME THE ISSUANCE OF
ADVISORIES USING THE SAME TROPICAL CYCLONE NAME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 13.5N 158.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 12/0600Z 13.3N 161.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 12/1800Z 13.2N 165.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 13/0600Z 13.1N 169.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER WROE