EPAC: HENRIETTE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Why is dry air so much of an issue? Didn't Flossie clean that up?

[Cyclenall]

This is starting to be amusing seeing lack of powerful storms in the EPac. Call me crazy but I am starting to want a season with no Major Hurricanes in the basin.

Same here, more interesting if both basins fail to have a major hurricane. I don't expect the Atlantic to screw up again but if it does, hopefully the other extreme occurs. Just having no majors in the Epac would just be another 2003 as others have stated, nothing too weird.

Why is dry air so much of an issue? Didn't Flossie clean that up?

That was a while ago, Flossie's cleaning can't last forever .

[Yellow Evan]

[cycloneye]

Up to 85kts.

HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
800 AM PDT THU AUG 08 2013

SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY...HENRIETTE HAS STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING.
ENHANCE IR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE EMBEDDED IN A SMALL CDO WITH CLOUD
TOPS COLDER THAN -50 DEG C. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 77 KT TO 90 KT AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED
TO 85 KT. SINCE THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MARGINAL
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING. THIS
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL HURRICANE MODEL
PREDICTION AND NOT FAR FROM THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

CENTER FIXES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE MOTION IS NOW WESTWARD
OR 280 AT 9 KT. A NARROW MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS TO DEVELOP NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF HENRIETTE IN A DAY
OR TWO. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE MOTION TO TURN A LITTLE SOUTH OF
WEST WITH AN INCREASE OF FORWARD SPEED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
ALSO SIMILAR TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...HENRIETTE SHOULD CROSS 140W INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY WITHIN
12 TO 18 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 17.2N 138.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 17.3N 139.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 17.0N 141.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 16.5N 143.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 16.0N 146.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 15.0N 152.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 14.0N 158.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Yellow Evan]

Could this become a major? I can't believe it intensified.

[Yellow Evan]

[Hurricane_Luis]

ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...HENRIETTE SHOULD CROSS 140W INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY WITHIN
12 TO 18 HOURS.

Oh no. Get ready for more late advisories.

[RL3AO]

You know, its almost starting to look annular. (I know its that overused word...) Still a band on the SW side, but its starting to take the shape. Of course the eye isn't there, but its fun to throw the "a" word out there.

[cycloneye]

Up to 90kts.

EP, 08, 2013080818, , BEST, 0, 172N, 1389W, 90, 976, HU, HENRIETTE, D,

[CrazyC83]

08/1730 UTC 17.2N 138.8W T5.0/5.0 HENRIETTE -- East Pacific

[Hurricane Alexis]

Haven't seen a hurricane look like this in a long time.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

One frame older than the latest, with a clear eye.

[Hurricane_Luis]

I know there's lots of other photos but I also found a nice one.

Hurricane Henriette

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
200 PM PDT THU AUG 08 2013

THE EYE OF HENRIETTE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT IN GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE PICTURES TODAY. THERE HAS ONLY BEEN A SINGLE LOWER
RESOLUTION AMSU MICROWAVE OVERPASS DURING THE PAST 12 TO 15
HOURS...SO IT HAS NOT BEEN POSSIBLE TO MONITOR THE INNER-CORE
STRUCTURAL CHANGES DURING THE PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION TODAY. THE
LASTEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN LOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...HENRIETTE SHOULD BEGIN
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS. LATER IN THE PERIOD THE SHEAR IS FORECST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING. DUE
TO THE HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY...THE UPDATED WIND SPEED FORECAST
IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF
DAYS...BUT IS CLOSE TO THE EARLIER FORECAST THEREAFTER.

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD OR 265 AT 9 KT. THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO TURN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A NARROW RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE NHC TRACK HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO BE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...HENRIETTE WILL CROSS 140W INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY BEFORE
09/0600 UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 17.1N 139.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 16.9N 140.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 16.4N 142.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 15.8N 145.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 15.1N 148.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 14.0N 154.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 13.0N 160.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[gatorcane]

RBTOP image:

[WeatherGuesser]

INIT 08/2100Z 17.1N 139.4W 90 KT 105 MPH

Can it make the additional 5 or 6 MPH?

Maybe it has already since they don't get real accurate readings out there?

[Yellow Evan]

Henritte is unbelievable. Really pretty too. At this rate, we'll have a major soon.

[Yellow Evan]

I know there's lots of other photos but I also found a nice one.

Hurricane Henriette

This one is the best of all the ones I've seen IMO.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Henriette peaked as a 105mph Category 2 earlier today. It has now begun its weakening trend.

[lilybeth]

Thanks to those who are sharing these amazing photos. That eye is incredible.

If anyone wants to answer, is she a big storm as far as her mass?