EPAC: HENRIETTE - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Thanks to those who are sharing these amazing photos. That eye is incredible.

If anyone wants to answer, is she a big storm as far as her mass?

Very small cyclone.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM

[Yellow Evan]

Henriette peaked as a 105mph Category 2 earlier today. It has now begun its weakening trend.

Oh well, that was fun to track. Should stay well-south of Hawaii.

[Yellow Evan]

Very small system.

[WeatherGuesser]

10 miles? That's almost pocket-sized.

[Yellow Evan]

10 miles? That's almost pocket-sized.

It's about the size of Carlos 09.

[lilybeth]

Thanks to those who are sharing these amazing photos. That eye is incredible.

If anyone wants to answer, is she a big storm as far as her mass?

Very small cyclone.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM

Wow, that is small! It makes me think about how massive Sandy was last year. But Henriette is photogenic. Thank you so much for taking time to answer me. Much appreciated!

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track stays at 90kts.

EP, 08, 2013080900, , BEST, 0, 171N, 1399W, 90, 977, HU

[Yellow Evan]

00z Best Track stays at 90kts.

EP, 08, 2013080900, , BEST, 0, 171N, 1399W, 90, 977, HU

I thought they'd lower it to 85knts, given it's not as good looking as5 hours ago.

[CrazyC83]

Henriette's entire circulation could fit into Sandy's inner core...if that...you could fit about 40 Henriettes inside Sandy...

[Yellow Evan]

Henriette's entire circulation could fit into Sandy's inner core...if that...you could fit about 40 Henriettes inside Sandy...

How many Henriette's could fit into Tip?

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
800 PM PDT THU AUG 08 2013

HENRIETTE APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED IN INTENSITY...AS THE EYE IS NO
LONGER APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 85 KT
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR AND A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A
BIT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT A LITTLE ABOVE THE LATEST
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AID IVCN.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/10...AND THE TRACK FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS A NARROW RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE CYCLONE. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION AND A FASTER
TREND IN THE GUIDANCE. AT DAYS 3 AND 4 THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN
SHIFTED FASTER AND A LITTLE TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE LATEST TCVE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

PASSES FROM ASCAT-A AND ASCAT-B AT 1832Z AND 1926Z...RESPECTIVELY...
INDICATE THAT THE OUTER WIND FIELD OF HENRIETTE IS QUITE SMALL.
BASED ON THESE DATA THE 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED
SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE FOR THIS ADVISORY.

NOW THAT HENRIETTE HAS CROSSED 140W INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC
BASIN...THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER WILL ISSUE THE NEXT
ADVISORY. FUTURE PUBLIC ADVISORIES CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER
WTPA33 PHFO AND AWIPS HEADER HFOTCPCP3. FUTURE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSIONS CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA43 PHFO AND AWIPS
HEADER HFOTCDCP3.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 17.0N 140.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 16.6N 142.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 16.0N 144.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 15.5N 147.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 15.0N 149.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 14.0N 156.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 13.5N 162.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Yellow Evan]

Why did the NHC issue an advisory when it's in CPHC AOR? Is the CPHC lazy?

[Kingarabian]

The next one should be on the CPHC.

[Yellow Evan]

The next one should be on the CPHC.

Watch them post it 5 hours late. IMO, they've majorly sucked since the EPAc storms left the basin in 1995 (sans 2009 when they had Knabb). Anyhow, Henriette appears to be on a decline, it looks even worse now.

[Brent]

According to the CPHC site at this moment Maka from 2009 is an active storm.

[senorpepr]

Why did the NHC issue an advisory when it's in CPHC AOR? Is the CPHC lazy?

NHC will issue the final advisory after the storm crosses 140°W. Once NHC signs off, then CPHC takes the stick.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA43 PHFO 090843
TCDCP3

HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082013
1100 PM HST THU AUG 08 2013

HENRIETTE CONTINUES ON A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND THAT BEGAN
EARLIER TODAY...WITH THE CONVECTION RAPIDLY DECAYING AND BECOMING
INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOW NEARLY
COMPLETELY EXPOSED...LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE WARMING
CLOUD TOPS...WITH LATEST SHEAR ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS DEPICTING
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY SHEAR. A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY YIELDS 4.0/65 KT...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL BE MINIMAL HURRICANE STATUS
OF 65 KT...WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE
OBSERVATIONS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 250/12 KT...WHICH INDICATES THAT
HENRIETTE HAS MADE THE ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
THE NEW TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED SOUTHWARD CLOSER TO THE
LATEST TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH SHOWS HENRIETTE ACCELERATING
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH DAY 2...AND THEN TURNING TOWARD
THE WEST THEREAFTER...AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES HENRIETTE OVER
MARGINALLY WARM WATERS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE DELETERIOUS
EFFECTS OF PERSISTENT SHEAR ON THIS TINY TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CAUSE
STEADY WEAKENING BEFORE DISSIPATION OCCURS IN 96 HOURS. THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES A MORE RAPID DEMISE DUE TO RECENT
TRENDS...AND IS CLOSE TO BOTH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND INTENSITY
CONSENSUS AID IVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 16.4N 141.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 15.8N 143.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 15.0N 145.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 14.1N 148.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 13.6N 151.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 13.2N 158.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

[tolakram]

It's always a dramatic finish in the EPAC.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA43 PHFO 091441
TCDCP3

TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082013
500 AM HST FRI AUG 09 2013

NEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE PREVIOUSLY PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER OF HENRIETTE...AND A
POORLY-DEVELOPED BANDING EYE FEATURE IS OBSERVED IN LATEST INFRARED
IMAGES. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
INDICATE A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING WEAKENING TREND...WITH A
BLEND OF FINAL-T AND CURRENT INTENSITIES YIELDING 3.5/55 KT. WITH A
SOMEWHAT IMPROVED SATELLITE REPRESENTATION SINCE FIXES WERE DONE...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SET TO 60 KT...AND
HENRIETTE IS NOW DEEMED TO BE A STRONG TROPICAL STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 250/11 KT...AS HENRIETTE MADE A
RATHER SHARP TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST LATE THURSDAY. GUIDANCE
REMAINS CONSISTENTLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...INDICATING A MOTION TOWARD
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH 48 HOURS BEFORE A MUCH WEAKENED SYSTEM
MAKES A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE WEST. THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY
IS ATTRIBUTED TO THE PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE...WITH THE TURN TOWARD THE WEST OCCURRING AS THE SYSTEM
NEARS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST LIES
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE WELL-PERFORMING
MULTI-MODEL TVCE CONSENSUS...AND INDICATES A BIT OF ACCELERATION IN
THE SHORT TERM.

ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES HENRIETTE OVER INCREASINGLY WARMER
WATERS...THE DELETERIOUS EFFECTS OF PERSISTENT AND INCREASING SHEAR
ON THIS TINY TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING AND
EVENTUAL DISSIPATION. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AID IVCN...BUT
HOLDS OFF DISSIPATION UNTIL 96 HOURS...WHEREAS LATEST SHIPS
GUIDANCE ANTICIPATES DISSIPATION BY 72 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 15.9N 142.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 15.2N 144.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 14.4N 146.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 13.8N 149.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 13.5N 153.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 13.0N 160.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082013
1100 AM HST FRI AUG 09 2013

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FLARE UP NEAR AND JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
APPARENT LOW LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER THE WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES
WITH AN AVERAGE OF INTENSITY ESTIMATES YIELDING A CI OF 3.5 OR 55
KT FOR THIS SYSTEM.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/14 KT. GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED...INDICATING A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH
48 HOURS...BEFORE A MUCH WEAKENED SYSTEM MAKES A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD
THE WEST. THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY IS ATTRIBUTED TO THE
PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...WITH THE TURN
TOWARD THE WEST OCCURRING AS THE SYSTEM NEARS THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE RIDGE. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK EVENTUALLY TAKES HENRIETTE OVER
INCREASINGLY WARMER WATERS...THE EFFECTS OF PERSISTENT AND
INCREASING SHEAR ON THIS TINY TROPICAL CYCLONE...SHOULD CAUSE
STEADY WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY ALONG
WITH THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE...WITH HENRIETTE WEAKENING TO A
REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 15.5N 144.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 14.9N 146.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 14.2N 148.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 13.7N 151.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 13.4N 155.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 12.8N 162.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BURKE