EPAC: HENRIETTE - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Been a while since the eye appeared. Would be sad if it was pulling a Gil right now.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 06 2013

WHILE THE EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...THE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH A
SMALL AREA OF DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 80 KT BASED ON
A BLEND OF THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND ADT ESTIMATES. SOME
LIMITED STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER
THAT TIME MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAKENING AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER SSTS AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH 36 HOURS AND FOLLOWS
THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL AFTER THAT TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09...AS HENRIETTE IS CURRENTLY
SITUATED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST
IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS TO THE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND A MOTION TO THE SOUTH
OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED AS HENRIETTE WEAKENS AND IS STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE LATEST
TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 15.1N 133.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 15.8N 134.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 16.6N 136.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 17.0N 137.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 17.1N 139.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 16.3N 143.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 15.5N 148.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 15.0N 153.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Yellow Evan]

I hate to say it Kingarabian, but Henriette is pulling a Gil.

[Cyclenall]

I hate to say it Kingarabian, but Henriette is pulling a Gil.

I was just coming here to post that, its pulling another Gil indeed. It's actually amazingly similar too, deep burst of convection right over where the eye was and some weird cutting going on at the south but its not bad yet. Its like the basins can sense our wishes and then knows how to smash them in the most annoying way possible. Not this storm for me, it was Gil...

[Kingarabian]

I hate to say it Kingarabian, but Henriette is pulling a Gil.

I was just coming here to post that, its pulling another Gil indeed. It's actually amazingly similar too, deep burst of convection right over where the eye was and some weird cutting going on at the south but its not bad yet. Its like the basins can sense our wishes and then knows how to smash them in the most annoying way possible. Not this storm for me, it was Gil...

Exactly! It started to shoot super cold cloud tops around the northern part of the eyewall (Why???) then the eye started to obscure. I don't understand what caused it to do that.

[Kingarabian]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html

Eye wall nearly gone.

[galaxy401]

Maybe Henriette will be a cat 2 in the post-season.

[Kingarabian]

07/1200 UTC 16.1N 134.4W T4.5/4.5 HENRIETTE

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track at 75kts.

EP, 08, 2013080712, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1345W, 75, 983, HU

[Kingarabian]

Much better.

[Cyclenall]

Much better.

I can't tell if that is sarcasm or not, looks kinda bad to me. Can't really tell what's going on anyways with that resolution.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
800 AM PDT WED AUG 07 2013

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION AND THE OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS...HENRIETTE IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTERACT WITH
MORE STABLE AIR. ON THIS BASIS...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR NO
CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO WITH A GRADUAL
WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THIS FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9
KNOTS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BEYOND
36 HOURS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...FORCING HENRIETTE TO MOVE ON MORE
WESTERLY TO A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE TURN. THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
THAT HAS BEEN PERFORMING QUITE WELL SO FAR THIS SEASON.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 16.2N 134.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 16.8N 136.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 17.5N 138.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 17.5N 140.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 17.2N 142.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 16.0N 146.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 15.0N 152.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 13.5N 159.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Kingarabian]

Latest SSMIS pass shows an organizing core. Looks better than it did yesterday night so let's if an eye can clear out.

[Kingarabian]

Could be trying to see again:



ADT back to 84kts:

Code: Select all

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                4.8 / 976.4mb/ 84.8kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                4.8     4.8     3.5

 Center Temp : -60.2C    Cloud Region Temp : -57.6C

 Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

 Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

 Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC 
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC   

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON   
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   


07/1800 UTC 16.5N 135.3W T4.0/4.5 HENRIETTE

[Hurricane_Luis]

84 knots is near 100 mph, with this could they upgrade to cat 2?

[galaxy401]

This is starting to be amusing seeing lack of powerful storms in the EPac. Call me crazy but I am starting to want a season with no Major Hurricanes in the basin.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 072031
TCDEP3

HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
200 PM PDT WED AUG 07 2013

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF HENRIETTE HAS CHANGED A LITTLE DURING THE PAST
6 HOURS. AN EYE IS TRYING TO APPEAR IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST...WHILE AN APPARENT DRY SLOT IS WRAPPING BETWEEN THE
CDO AND THE OUTER BANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THERE WAS
A 70 KT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS A FEW HOURS AGO. BASED
ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10. THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST TO RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CYCLONE AFTER 24-36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TURN
TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE
SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF
THE OLD TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COLDER WATERS AND INTO SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 12-48 HOURS.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN...WITH THE GFS...THE
UKMET...AND THE CANADIAN MODELS FORECASTING THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
PART OF THE CIRCULATION TO DISSIPATE DURING THIS TIME. THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHTLY FASTER WEAKENING THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED SHEAR.
HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING
AFTER 48 HOURS...APPARENTLY DUE TO INCREASED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
THE LATTER PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL
TREND...BUT WITH A SLOWER WEAKENING RATE THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 16.7N 135.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 17.3N 137.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 17.7N 138.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 17.6N 140.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 17.1N 142.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 16.0N 148.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 14.5N 154.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 13.0N 160.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HurricaneBill]

This is starting to be amusing seeing lack of powerful storms in the EPac. Call me crazy but I am starting to want a season with no Major Hurricanes in the basin.

That happened in 2003. No majors. The first 8 storms failed to become hurricanes. 7 of the next 8 did become hurricanes. Hurricane Ignacio and Hurricane Marty struck Mexico.

[Yellow Evan]

This is starting to be amusing seeing lack of powerful storms in the EPac. Call me crazy but I am starting to want a season with no Major Hurricanes in the basin.

That happened in 2003. No majors. The first 8 storms failed to become hurricanes. 7 of the next 8 did become hurricanes. Hurricane Ignacio and Hurricane Marty struck Mexico.

Nora, Olaf, and Carlos hit MX. 2003 also had a bunch of Cat 2's though. This also happened in 1977.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
800 PM PDT WED AUG 07 2013

THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF HENRIETTE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. WHILE AN EYE IS NOT SEEN IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...A
2134Z AMSR-2 PASS FROM THE GCOM-W1 SATELLITE SHOWED A SMALL MID-
LEVEL EYE. HOWEVER...THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATED AN
EASTWARD TILT OF THE CIRCULATION WITH HEIGHT CONSISTENT WITH
MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR INDICATED BY UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK CI-NUMBERS OF
4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AFTER THAT TIME...HENRIETTE WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER
WATERS...BUT IN A DRIER ATMOSPHERE. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT
IN SLOW WEAKENING TO REMNANT LOW STATUS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF THE DECAY SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/09. A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF HENRIETTE WILL RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST. THIS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES A
SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NEW
NHC FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT HAS
BEEN SHIFTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH 72 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION AND AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE LATEST
TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 17.0N 136.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 17.4N 138.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 17.4N 139.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 17.2N 141.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 16.7N 144.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 15.5N 149.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 14.0N 156.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 13.0N 162.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN