WPAC: MANGKHUT - Tropical Storm

[vrif]

ASCAT 1424Z pass over the eye.

edit: Included the NOAA version below.

[vrif]

WTPQ20 RJTD 061800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1310 MANGKHUT (1310)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061800UTC 17.0N 109.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 071800UTC 20.7N 106.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 081800UTC 22.6N 104.4E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

OSCAT 0806 1641Z pass.

[vrif]

Mangkhut in full view of Sanya radar, before it moves further into the Gulf of Tonkin.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Storm Mangkhut giving central Vietnam a soaking.

[mrbagyo]

vey strong convection associated with Mangkhut


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[vrif]

TRMM 0807 0107Z.
The main convection is situated on the west and south side.

[vrif]

ASCAT-B 0807 0254Z
25kt+ winds in the Gulf of Tonkin.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Vietnam outlook on Mangkhut. Expect a landfall around 22 local south east of Hanoi.

[vrif]

OSCAT 0449Z

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MANGKHUT) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 18.9N 107.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 107.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.5N 105.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 21.8N 103.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 106.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 10W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 152 NM
SOUTHEASTWARD OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
070600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXTWARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W WARNING NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 152 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED ORGANIZATION IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDING EVEN
AS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS AGAIN BECOME PARTLY
EXPOSED. A 070252Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
DISPLACED SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC, REVEALING A CLOSED LOW LEVEL
SIGNATURE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
THE ABOVE IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. THE SYSTEM IS
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20 KNOT)
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A MODERATE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW IS HELPING SUSTAIN THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AS THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS SUPPRESSED BY THE VWS, AS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS MANGKHUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED BY THE STR AS IT DRIFTS
ACROSS THE GULF OF TONKIN UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU
06 JUST SOUTH OF HANOI, AND DRAGS INTO THE RUGGED NORTHERN VIETNAMESE
INTERIOR. THE SYSTEM HAS PEAKED AND WILL NOW BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS VWS
AND LAND INTERACTION TAKE THEIR TOLL, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU
24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE DATA ARE IN VERY TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST. //
NNNN

[euro6208]

TXPQ22 KNES 070929
TCSWNP

A. 10W (MANGKHUT)

B. 07/0832Z

C. 19.0N

D. 106.6E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU/SSMI

H. REMARKS...TIMELY 0751Z SSMI PASS PRESENTS EXCELLENT BANDING STRUCTURE
AND GIVES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE AREAS WHEN VIS IMAGERY LOOP
IS BECOMING VERY MUDDY WITH LARGE AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS. CONVECTION WRAPS
.8 ON LOG10 SPIRAL FOR DT OF 3.5. MET IS 3.5. PT 3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

07/0253Z 18.6N 108.2E AMSU
07/0623Z 18.8N 107.2E AMSU
07/0751Z 19.0N 106.9E SSMI


...GALLINA


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 989.6mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.5 3.5


Dvorak suggesting a stronger storm at 3.5...

[phwxenthusiast]

latest radar out of Vinh



you can kinda make out the circulation there and bands look good too...

[vrif]

An earlier SSMIS pass showing the rain bands.

[RobWESTPACWX]

I just wrote a article on the fallout of this storm. One death and numerous reports of damage across Vietnam.

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/20 ... n-vietnam/