WPAC: MANGKHUT - Tropical Storm

[Hurricane_Luis]

Future Tropical Storm Mangkhut

GFS forecasts this to become and Severe Tropical Storm in the Gulf of Tonkin

[vrif]

Future Tropical Storm Utor

Future Tropical Storm Mangkhut

You skipped a name.

[vrif]

ASCAT and METOP-A 1349Z images

[vrif]

OSCAT 1541Z pass over the LLCC.

[vrif]

JTWC upgraded 94W to 10W

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 13.0N 113.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 113.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 14.5N 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 16.3N 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.0N 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 19.7N 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 22.3N 104.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 25.5N 103.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 113.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 656 NM
SOUTHEASTWARD OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR
HI 050851Z AUG 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
050900).
//

[wxman57]

Based on today's OSCAT pass, JTWC is about 10kts too low on wind (they said 25 kts, looks 35-40 kts) and their radius of 35kt wind to the NE is only 40NM (in 24hrs). I'm measuring 35+kt winds out to 260nm to the NE right now.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Future Tropical Storm Utor

Future Tropical Storm Mangkhut

You skipped a name.

My bad. Wasnt concentrating.

[senorpepr]

PAGASA has issued their final advisory on "Kiko"

Weather Bulletin Number THREE (FINAL)
Tropical Cyclone Alert: Tropical Depression "KIKO"
Issued at 5:00 a.m., Tuesday, 06 August 2013

Tropical Depression "KIKO" continues to move farther away from the country and is now outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility.

Location of Center: (as of 4:00 a.m.) 620 km Northwest of Coron, Palawan
Coordinates: 13.5°N, 114.1°E
Strength: Maximum winds of 55 kph near the center and
Movement: Northwest at 20 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Tuesday afternoon: 720 km West of Iba, Zambales

No Public Storm Warning Signals Raised

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5 - 15 mm per hour (moderate - heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the Tropical Depression.

With this development and unless re-entry occurs, this is the final bulletin for this weather disturbance.

[vrif]

CMA couldn't wait and upgraded it to a TS themselves. Still waiting for the official word from JMA.

WTPQ20 BABJ 060000
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS NAMELESS 1310 (1310) INITIAL TIME 060000 UTC
00HR 13.6N 113.9E 998HPA 18M/S
30KTS 150KM
P12HR NW 25KM/H
P+24HR 17.5N 109.7E 990HPA 23M/S
P+48HR 21.3N 106.3E 998HPA 18M/S=

WTPQ20 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060000UTC 14.5N 113.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 070000UTC 17.3N 109.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[vrif]

10W coming into frame.

[RobWESTPACWX]

OSCAT Wind Field.

[vrif]

OSCAT 0358Z descend pass.
Eastern wind field doesn't look like there is a lot of convection anymore

[RobWESTPACWX]

Rain bands look pretty decent coming onshore in Hainan this hour.
Another round of wet weather following Jebi = high chance of floods.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Please be upgraded and use the name Mangkhut! Without wishing to offend any cultures etc, I'm really not a fan of that name and would like it used on a weak short lived system like this

Not the best looking system but as Rob said Hainan has already had a soaking in the last 7 days!

[mrbagyo]

the name Mangkhut replaced typhoon Durian of 2006 right????
so this will be the inaugural use of the name Mangkhut...( if JMA upgrade this system)

Mangkhut is the local name of Mangosteen fruit (Garcinia mangostana) in Thailand.
so basically, a fruit replaced another fruit, Durian, (Durio Zibethinus)

[senorpepr]

Models are starting to trend westward thanks to building high pressure from the east. In turn, the track is leaning toward a brush/miss to the southwest of Hainan province. Of course, the threat of flooding rains still exist across northern Vietnam and Hainan through the end of the week.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uafXO0JuOOo[/youtube]

[euro6208]

TXPQ22 KNES 060947
TCSWNP

A. 10W (NONAME)

B. 06/0832Z

C. 15.5N

D. 110.4E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THE 0732Z AMSU PASS REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDING ABOUT A VERY
BROAD CIRCULATION THAT POSSIBLY HAS MULTIPLE VORTICES. CENTER FIX IS A
COMBINATION OF THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER AND THE MIDLEVEL CENTER. DT OF
2.0 IS BASED ON 0.3 BANDING. MET IS 2.0 AND PT IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

[xtyphooncyclonex]

UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM BY JMA:
TS 1310 (MANGKHUT)
Issued at 13:15 UTC, 6 August 2013

<Analyses at 06/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°50'(15.8°)
E110°50'(110.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 07/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°35'(17.6°)
E109°05'(109.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 07/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°35'(19.6°)
E107°25'(107.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

<Forecast for 08/12 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N22°10'(22.2°)
E105°00'(105.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

[RobWESTPACWX]

My video update tonight on this guys. A brief summary of everything discussed today.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b7wzpSByiIc[/youtube]