WPAC: UTOR - Post-Tropical

[CrazyC83]

It almost looks like some of the recent Atlantic storms that had deep pressures but weaker winds due to the large wind field...

[wjs3]

It really does. That's well observed.

#8, SE hoisted overnight (I guess around midnight?) Here on the island it doesn't look bad in the Harbor--which is obviously in the lee of the island in this wind--but the lack of the usual boat traffic (I do see what looks like a star ferry crossing to Kowloon right now?) is a bit eerie. Lots of low cloud over the harbor, but from looking at the radar (and the ground), does not look terribly wet.

Is a "dry" storm typical on the Island once the wind shifts southerly due to orographics? Or is this just the way Utor is? The driness of this side of the circulation looks larger scale than Victoria Peak, but thought I would comment/ask.

So much for going to Hong Kong Disneyland today...

[wjs3]

Pre-Signal 8 warning issued

Code: Select all

The Hong Kong Observatory announces that the Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal Number 8 is expected to be issued at or before 1:40 a.m. tomorrow (14 Aug 2013). Winds locally will strengthen further.

Issued at 23:40 HKT 13/Aug/2013

Latest 1530Z wind observations.

Where did you get this windfield graphic, please? Sorry--I don't have a bunch of WPAC sites bookmarked as I do in the Atlantic.

[vrif]

Where did you get this windfield graphic, please? Sorry--I don't have a bunch of WPAC sites bookmarked as I do in the Atlantic.

It is a print screen from this website: http://www.shenzhentaifeng.com/
Must use internet explorer, and then click on the second tab. On the left click the bottom right button to show the observations. It is a chinese only website.

[vrif]

00Z Wind observations

[phwxenthusiast]

thanks for the link; unfortunately, it's not working for me.. does anybody know other sources for realtime weather obs in China??

anyway, Vrif, do you know if those are sustained winds or gusts?? looks like some really strong winds now being recorded, i see a 75-knot barb already showing up!!

[vrif]

thanks for the link; unfortunately, it's not working for me.. does anybody know other sources for realtime weather obs in China??

anyway, Vrif, do you know if those are sustained winds or gusts?? looks like some really strong winds now being recorded, i see a 75-knot barb already showing up!!

I think sustained 2-min average wind. Some of the wind barbs are a bit stronger than the recorded m/s data.

edit: With most mainland China website, internet explorer works the best. For that website in particular, you must have silverlight installed or the observation points do not show up.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Where did you get this windfield graphic, please? Sorry--I don't have a bunch of WPAC sites bookmarked as I do in the Atlantic.

It is a print screen from this website: http://www.shenzhentaifeng.com/
Must use internet explorer, and then click on the second tab. On the left click the bottom right button to show the observations. It is a chinese only website.

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/links-2/

Just a heads up, for those that dont have links for the westpac I put together over 100 links for this region. I dont have this one though, will be adding it.

Plus my latest video on Utor just prior to landfall. Some reports from James Reynolds in the right front quadrant in this video.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_dMK6a6m1IQ[/youtube]

[wjs3]

Thanks, Rob.

Rob, what is the deal with the east side of the circulation being so dry? It looks like dry air (no analysis here--just eyeballing), but I would have expected dry air to pop up on the west side as that's where it should be getting advected in. Am I missing something else? Does this typically happen with landfalling TCs in this area?

[wjs3]

Strongest squalls of the whole system right now on Victoria Harbour.

Sorry, I stink at posting images or would post radar.

Can't even see the Harbour from Pacific Place hotel right now.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Where did you get this windfield graphic, please? Sorry--I don't have a bunch of WPAC sites bookmarked as I do in the Atlantic.

It is a print screen from this website: http://www.shenzhentaifeng.com/
Must use internet explorer, and then click on the second tab. On the left click the bottom right button to show the observations. It is a chinese only website.

Use Google Chrome and it translates it for you.

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (UTOR) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 21.5N 111.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 111.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 22.8N 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 23.6N 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 24.0N 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 111.7E.
TYPHOON 11W (UTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 137 NM WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 141500Z.//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (UTOR) WARNING NR 23//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 11W (UTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 137 NM WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE STRUCTURE OF TY 11W CONTINUES TO DEVOLVE AS
THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED IN APPEARANCE AND CONVECTION HAS
CONSIDERABLY SHALLOWED AS THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE
HOUR. ANIMATED ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH RADAR IMAGERY
FROM YANGJIANG, CHINA, ALSO SHOW THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM IS
WEAKENING AS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM IS NOW OVERLAND AND
THE NORTHERN EYEWALL HAS MADE LANDFALL. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED UPON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI ALONG WITH THE RADAR IMAGERY
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 80
KNOTS BASED ON THE OBSERVED WEAKENING TREND AND DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD THAT RANGE FROM 90 TO 77
KNOTS, RESPECTIVELY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (10-20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO HAMPER THE SYSTEM WHILE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST. TY 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 11W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR INTO MAINLAND CHINA THROUGH
THE NEXT DAY. A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN CHINA, WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR THE STR TO
REBUILD AND DRIVE THE WEAKENED SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTWARD ORIENTED
TRACK AFTER TAU 24. GENERAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND FURTHER ERODE THE SYSTEM LEADING TO ITS
DISSIPATION IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS BUT BECOMES HIGHLY ERRATIC
AFTER THAT DUE TO THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE VORTEX. DESPITE THIS,
HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE GOOD
CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS.//
NNNN

[RobWESTPACWX]

OK! Who is ready to change there pants after the most intense storm footage you have ever seen. Courtesy of our very own "Typhoon Hunter"

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RTJeHwsVDiw[/youtube]

Also I made a full update and damage report on this extreme storm.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4kNRwxk_E8[/youtube]

[Meow]

Note, Megi was a 7.5 at landfall.

Megi was 7.5, 2.5 hours after landfall.