WPAC: UTOR - Post-Tropical

[vrif]

INVEST 96W

edit: Previous Discussion Thread: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=115346

[Typhoon Hunter]

Can we please migrate the original thread instead since there's already been extensive and interesting discussion on this disturbance and it would be shame to lose it.

[tolakram]

Discussion thread prior to invest: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=115346

[tolakram]

Can we please migrate the original thread instead since there's already been extensive and interesting discussion on this disturbance and it would be shame to lose it.

It won't be lost, just buried deep in the Talking Tropics forum. You can wind back that forum and see posts from 2005 and earlier.

I added a link above. Maybe the admins will want to review and possibly agree to move the original post.

[dexterlabio]

The area of this invest is large indeed, is this a monsoon depression type of system? No matter how strong this would get, this could soak large portions of Luzon and Taiwan.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Forecast discussion from NWS Guam:

GFS40 REMAINS
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING THE SECOND CIRCULATION NEAR YAP INTO A
FAIRLY STRONG CIRCULATION NORTHWEST OF YAP BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CIRCULATION LOOKS REASONABLE AS FAR AS
LOCATION...BUT THE RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE WAY
OVERDONE. CHOSE TO MAINTAIN PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH AN OVERALL
DRYING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THIS SITUATION WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN CASE THE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS
DEPICTED BY THE GFS40 ACTUALLY TAKES PLACE.

[vrif]

JTWC, low chance in the next 24 hours.

ABPW10 PGTW 080600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/080600Z-090600ZAUG2013//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071951ZAUG2013//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 071800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (MANGKHUT) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 19.9N 105.2E, APPROXIMATELY 77 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OF HANOI,
VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30
KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 072100) FOR THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12N 138.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 155 NM NORTH OF YAP ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 080428Z
AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BROAD NATURE OF THE DEVELOPING
LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
WEAK VERICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE
DISORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[Typhoon Hunter]

NAVGEM and CMC now also on board with developing this feature. 00z runs from GFS and NAVGEM hint at threat to Luzon and then S Taiwan. Anywhere from Luzon, Taiwan to S China, HK etc will have to keep a close eye on this.

Forecast discussion from NWS Guam:

GFS40 REMAINS
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING THE SECOND CIRCULATION NEAR YAP INTO A
FAIRLY STRONG CIRCULATION NORTHWEST OF YAP BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CIRCULATION LOOKS REASONABLE AS FAR AS
LOCATION...BUT THE RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE WAY
OVERDONE. CHOSE TO MAINTAIN PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH AN OVERALL
DRYING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THIS SITUATION WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN CASE THE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS
DEPICTED BY THE GFS40 ACTUALLY TAKES PLACE.

[RobWESTPACWX]

I posted a video on this last night, the second half is on the invest 96W.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xXz9Va065v0[/youtube]

[vrif]

00Z EC run is still tracking this storm westwards toward Hainan, and intensifies it over the SCS.

[RobWESTPACWX]

At least the current placement of the pacific high would indicate a more westerly track, pending on if it retreats east. NAVGEM actually is turning that out.

[Typhoon Hunter]

ECMWF barely shows a closed circulation - totally bugged model that should be unplugged when it comes to TC genesis

[vrif]

Looks like it is organizing at a good pace.

[mrbagyo]

Convection is building up directly over the broad low level circulation..

[RobWESTPACWX]

72hr 06Z GFS output, ya, this thing is forming.

[vrif]

upgraded to medium

ABPW10 PGTW 081300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/081300Z-090600ZAUG2013//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TD 10W) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 105.2E HAS DISSIPATED OVER LAND AND, THEREFORE,
IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0N
138.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 136.7E, APPROXIMATELY 313 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PALAU. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 080858Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS TIGHTLY PACKED DEEP CONVECTION WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES. ADDITIONALLY, FIXING
AGENCIES ARE REPORTING DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY A TUTT
CELL LOCATED TO NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

20130808 0832 12.4 -136.7 T1.0/1.0 96W 96W

[RobWESTPACWX]

I just made up a video on this, plus the LPA over the PI and the heat over China. About 3min in is 96W though.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X5XMLd_DxT8[/youtube]

[Typhoon Hunter]

Rapidly consolidating system, wow!



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[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert





WTPN21 PGTW 081630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 137.4E TO 13.6N 133.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 081200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.1N 136.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1N
136.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 136.5E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PALAU. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BROAD, YET CONSOLIDATING, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A
FRAGMENTED BANDING FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND
PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 081100Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS CENTRAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING FEATURES THAT ARE BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC. A 081159Z
ASCAT PASS REVEALS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS NEAR
THE CONSOLIDATING LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A POINT SOURCE
LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE SYSTEM WHICH IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENT
EASTERLY FLOW AND WEAK (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091630Z.//
NNNN