ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
BigB0882
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2219
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 12:08 am
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Contact:
Contact BigB0882

#221 Postby BigB0882 » Wed Aug 14, 2013 9:36 pm

I think I may be just far enough to the West to not have to worry about rain. Unless the models shift this thing further West, we will be on the dry side it looks like. I wouldn't mind a nice rainy weekend to lounge at the house BUT we have had some really decent rain the last 3 days so I think flooding would be a big problem with a tropical system.
0 likes   
Top
Tyler Penland
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 59
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2011 12:32 pm
Location: Blowing Rock, NC

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#222 Postby Tyler Penland » Wed Aug 14, 2013 9:42 pm

deltadog03 wrote:I would say maybe 4-6" total rain from today through Sunday around here possible. I would say 2-4" for yall


Thanks. Pretty much what I was thinking.
Also, if a mod could delete my bonus posts I'd appreciate it. My phone is being ridiculous.
0 likes   
****The above is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. I am in no way affiliated with the NWS or storm2k, and most likely don't share their opinion. Please refer to NWS/NHC products for official advisories/warnings/forecasts.****

But if you insist, trust me, I'm a physicist.
Top
User avatar
Rgv20
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2456
Age: 37
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 5:42 pm
Location: Edinburg/McAllen Tx

#223 Postby Rgv20 » Wed Aug 14, 2013 9:42 pm

0zNAM for entertainment purposes only....Well developed TC heading North by 72hrs.

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
N2tropicAL
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 3
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2008 7:48 am
Location: central alabama

#224 Postby N2tropicAL » Wed Aug 14, 2013 9:48 pm

right at a 2 ft rainfall surplus for 2013 in my backyard rain gauge in anniston AL... will be watching the models with interest in regards to flooding possibilities.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9254
Age: 52
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#225 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 14, 2013 9:50 pm

69hr NAM loop

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php


84hr NAM heading towards upper Texas coast or SW LA....
Last edited by ROCK on Wed Aug 14, 2013 9:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4005
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#226 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Aug 14, 2013 9:52 pm

0z NAM ends up stalling a TS south of the TX/LA border in 84 hours.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_27.png
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Nikki
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 291
Joined: Mon Jun 21, 2010 3:38 pm
Location: Santa Fe, TX (yes I typed that right TEXAS not New Mexico, I am about 20 miles from Galveston, TX)

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#227 Postby Nikki » Wed Aug 14, 2013 9:53 pm




This link doesn't work for me... :cry:
0 likes   
My name is Nicole and this is what I go by in Storm2k chat! Come chat with us! We have fun in there too!!

A teacher's purpose is not to create students in her own image, but to develop students who can create their own image. ~Author Unknown

Alicia, Allison, Rita, Ike
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9254
Age: 52
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#228 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 14, 2013 9:54 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:0z NAM ends up stalling a TS south of the TX/LA border in 84 hours.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_27.png



not stalling moving wnw towards upper texas coast on last frame...

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php? ... mageSize=M
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4005
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#229 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Aug 14, 2013 9:56 pm

ROCK wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:0z NAM ends up stalling a TS south of the TX/LA border in 84 hours.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_27.png



not stalling moving wnw towards upper texas coast on last frame...

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php


Yeah Rock it's crawling WNW at the end there.


Nikki wrote:



This link doesn't work for me... :cry:



Try this one: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9254
Age: 52
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#230 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 14, 2013 9:59 pm

yeah its crawling for sure...thats why it misses the trof completely..allowing it to pull out,,,ridge builds back in...simliar to the CMC sort of....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Nikki
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 291
Joined: Mon Jun 21, 2010 3:38 pm
Location: Santa Fe, TX (yes I typed that right TEXAS not New Mexico, I am about 20 miles from Galveston, TX)

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#231 Postby Nikki » Wed Aug 14, 2013 9:59 pm

That one worked, thank you South Texas Storms!!!! :D
0 likes   
My name is Nicole and this is what I go by in Storm2k chat! Come chat with us! We have fun in there too!!

A teacher's purpose is not to create students in her own image, but to develop students who can create their own image. ~Author Unknown

Alicia, Allison, Rita, Ike
Top
User avatar
Blinhart
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1981
Age: 47
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:13 pm
Location: Crowley, La.

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#232 Postby Blinhart » Wed Aug 14, 2013 10:19 pm

So the Sabine Pass idea I threw out a few hours ago is not as far fetch as some had thought???
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5248
Age: 40
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#233 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Aug 14, 2013 10:29 pm

I have to say the NAM commonly spits out plausible forecast tracks for TC's but has it ever been right ? :lol: . Could be good news for Texas to fill up those reservoirs.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9254
Age: 52
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#234 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 14, 2013 10:36 pm

0Z GFS rolling out 33hrs from my site.....

low is crossing Yucatan and into the BOC....850mb vort is stretch out big time....

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_12.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_12.png

48hrs in the BOC....I guess,, :lol:


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_17.png


63hrs in the BOC with one lonely isobar

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_22.png
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9254
Age: 52
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#235 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 14, 2013 10:57 pm

I think the GFS is following its ensembles from 18Z... :D

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_31.png

its finally moving NW.....eerliy similar to the 0Z NAM...


117hr finally send it into Brownsville....whats left of it anyway....thats a pretty big shift

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5248
Age: 40
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#236 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Aug 14, 2013 11:12 pm

GFS has really backed away from the development table. Quite a change from 24 hrs ago...
0 likes   
Top
Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#237 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Aug 14, 2013 11:13 pm

IMHO, flacid, won't be much. Look east for bad boys, TD5, and the one after that, currently over Africa. GN!
0 likes   
Top
CYCLONE MIKE
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2183
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 6:04 pm
Location: Gonzales, LA

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#238 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Wed Aug 14, 2013 11:17 pm

Yep. Don't think its shown anything other than a north gulf landfall. I'm not sure on which direction it might take but I am feeling more certain the gfs and euro have the intensity correct, or lack thereof. I remember when they were calling for dissipation for Chantal and Dorian and everyone was saying no way not going to happen. For run after run now they are showing nothing for this system as well and until proven otherwise I must agree.
0 likes   
This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
bamajammer4eva
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 907
Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2010 3:21 am
Location: Ozark, AL

#239 Postby bamajammer4eva » Wed Aug 14, 2013 11:56 pm

00Z Canadian

Image
0 likes   
Top
CYCLONE MIKE
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2183
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 6:04 pm
Location: Gonzales, LA

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#240 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Thu Aug 15, 2013 12:00 am

Windshield wiper effects still going at high speed. This is becoming almost comedic. That is two huge swings by gfs and cmc.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2013”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 103 guests