ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9254
Age: 53
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#281 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 16, 2013 11:19 am

here is some models....:)


Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
'CaneFreak
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1475
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:50 am
Location: New Bern, NC

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#282 Postby 'CaneFreak » Fri Aug 16, 2013 11:25 am

ROCK wrote:here is some models....:)


These look somewhat in line with my thoughts.
0 likes   
Top
Bailey1777
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 962
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 6:23 pm
Location: Houston, Texas

#283 Postby Bailey1777 » Fri Aug 16, 2013 11:28 am

funny how things evolve...now guidance is inbetween the boc n.gom solutions weve been talking about for days.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
perk
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 825
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 9:35 am
Location: Richmond Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#284 Postby perk » Fri Aug 16, 2013 11:38 am

'CaneFreak wrote:
ROCK wrote:here is some models....:)


These look somewhat in line with my thoughts.



The models have flipped so much i don't know what to think.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Rgv20
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2456
Age: 37
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 5:42 pm
Location: Edinburg/McAllen Tx

#285 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Aug 16, 2013 12:06 pm

IMO of all the forecast models the UKMET has been the more stable and best model with 92L so far. Today's 12zUKMET brings a very weak area of low pressure to South Texas Coast in 72hrs and last nights it brought a weak area of low pressure in Mid Texas Coast.

Sunday Morning
Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us


Monday Morning
Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6355
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#286 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Aug 16, 2013 12:23 pm

12z GFS still wanting to send a Vort northward from the central Gulf toward Mobile and buries the Low we see now deep into the BOC eventually forming another Low north of it that heads for TX. Scratching my head. :double:
0 likes   
Top
N2Storms
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 324
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:37 pm
Location: Panama City, Florida

Re:

#287 Postby N2Storms » Fri Aug 16, 2013 12:28 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:12z GFS still wanting to send a Vort northward from the central Gulf toward Mobile and buries the Low we see now deep into the BOC eventually forming another Low north of it that heads for TX. Scratching my head. :double:



That's what I believe the guy on TWC was alluding to in his most recent update. Seems to think that it is more likely that it gets elongated and eventually splits in to two separate entities. One goes north towards MS/AL and the other stays in the BOC...
Last edited by tolakram on Fri Aug 16, 2013 12:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: fixed quotes
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139094
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#288 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 16, 2013 1:51 pm

18z Model suite.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
southerngale
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 27420
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#289 Postby southerngale » Fri Aug 16, 2013 1:51 pm

FWIW... 12z Canadian - Central TX coast. TS - perhaps some rain for the parched state.


Image
0 likes   
Please support Storm2k by making a donation today. It is greatly appreciated! Click here: Image

Image my Cowboys Image my RocketsImage my Astros
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19165
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#290 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 16, 2013 1:55 pm

Both the NavGem and the Canadian show low consolidation in 36 hours from the last run. Perhaps we shouldn't expect much for at least another 24 hours?
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
perk
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 825
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 9:35 am
Location: Richmond Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#291 Postby perk » Fri Aug 16, 2013 1:57 pm

southerngale wrote:FWIW... 12z Canadian - Central TX coast. TS - perhaps some rain for the parched state.


Image



southerngale as you well know,we can use some rain. :lol:
0 likes   
Top
Bailey1777
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 962
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 6:23 pm
Location: Houston, Texas

#292 Postby Bailey1777 » Fri Aug 16, 2013 1:57 pm

this is what we need...little ts to help out our drought....hope they are right.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9254
Age: 53
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#293 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 16, 2013 2:01 pm

southerngale wrote:FWIW... 12z Canadian - Central TX coast. TS - perhaps some rain for the parched state.


Image



hmm..the CMCI above has this over high island...I thought they were one in the same....guess not...:)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 33
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:
Contact brunota2003

#294 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Aug 16, 2013 2:02 pm

What was the TS that formed and hit Texas a couple years back? The one that went from full of convection offshore to absolutely nothing in a matter of 4 or 6 hrs?
0 likes   
Just a small town southern boy helping other humans.
Top
User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9787
Age: 61
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: South Austin, TX
Contact:
Contact Portastorm

Re:

#295 Postby Portastorm » Fri Aug 16, 2013 2:08 pm

brunota2003 wrote:What was the TS that formed and hit Texas a couple years back? The one that went from full of convection offshore to absolutely nothing in a matter of 4 or 6 hrs?


Tropical Storm Don in 2011. The saddest excuse for a named system many of us have ever seen.
0 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
Top
Bailey1777
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 962
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 6:23 pm
Location: Houston, Texas

#296 Postby Bailey1777 » Fri Aug 16, 2013 2:10 pm

better start moving nw soon.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
southerngale
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 27420
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#297 Postby southerngale » Fri Aug 16, 2013 2:13 pm

Portastorm, that was CRAZY! Texas sucked up TS Don and consumed him whole. :P

ROCK... now I see the CMCI you mentioned.
0 likes   
Please support Storm2k by making a donation today. It is greatly appreciated! Click here: Image

Image my Cowboys Image my RocketsImage my Astros
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9254
Age: 53
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re:

#298 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 16, 2013 2:13 pm

Bailey1777 wrote:better start moving nw soon.


the more NW in the near term would mean more shear.....its fine where it is for now...:)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
perk
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 825
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 9:35 am
Location: Richmond Texas

Re: Re:

#299 Postby perk » Fri Aug 16, 2013 2:14 pm

Portastorm wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:What was the TS that formed and hit Texas a couple years back? The one that went from full of convection offshore to absolutely nothing in a matter of 4 or 6 hrs?


Tropical Storm Don in 2011. The saddest excuse for a named system many of us have ever seen.



Portastorm what's your take on the 18z models posted by cycloneye.
0 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19165
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re:

#300 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 16, 2013 2:14 pm

brunota2003 wrote:What was the TS that formed and hit Texas a couple years back? The one that went from full of convection offshore to absolutely nothing in a matter of 4 or 6 hrs?


This question can't be answered without the posting of the final discussion. :D

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
400 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011

THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. DON SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER
TODAY AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE
A RAINFALL THREAT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 27.9N 98.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 30/1800Z 28.5N 101.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

NNNN
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2013”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 21 guests