ATL: ERIN - Models

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#61 Postby otowntiger » Thu Aug 15, 2013 11:42 am

HouTXmetro wrote:I agree, weak means the likelihood of being steered further west in the low level flow rises. Makes it more of a threat down the road.
Very possible, but if it just stays weak and barely intact it will be of little consequence regardless of where it goes. This could end up being a very interesting year- interesting in that the season forecasts could be big time busts. 8-) We can only hope! I find it fascinating when mother nature decides to do her own thing despite how hard man works to predict her!
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#62 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 15, 2013 12:49 pm

Image
12z...Models in very good agreement... :lol:
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#63 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 15, 2013 12:52 pm

It could go anywhere from Madeira to Panama...
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#64 Postby USTropics » Thu Aug 15, 2013 12:56 pm

Blown Away wrote:12z...Models in very good agreement... :lol:


Lol almost missed the fan :P.

To repeat years past, there is a break in the ridge projected by most models, question is, will Erin be strong enough at that time to catch the break or be weak and continue west.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#65 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 15, 2013 12:59 pm

USTropics wrote:
Blown Away wrote:12z...Models in very good agreement... :lol:


Lol almost missed the fan :P.

To repeat years past, there is a break in the ridge projected by most models, question is, will Erin be strong enough at that time to catch the break or be weak and continue west.


The break is the same trough currently in the central US? It seems that will play a major role in the short term - and behind it, there is nothing.
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Re: Re:

#66 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Thu Aug 15, 2013 1:28 pm

otowntiger wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:I agree, weak means the likelihood of being steered further west in the low level flow rises. Makes it more of a threat down the road.
Very possible, but if it just stays weak and barely intact it will be of little consequence regardless of where it goes. This could end up being a very interesting year- interesting in that the season forecasts could be big time busts. 8-) We can only hope! I find it fascinating when mother nature decides to do her own thing despite how hard man works to predict her!



Agree with you on this otown. Time is ticking away :wink:
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#67 Postby USTropics » Thu Aug 15, 2013 1:32 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
USTropics wrote:
Blown Away wrote:12z...Models in very good agreement... :lol:


Lol almost missed the fan :P.

To repeat years past, there is a break in the ridge projected by most models, question is, will Erin be strong enough at that time to catch the break or be weak and continue west.


The break is the same trough currently in the central US? It seems that will play a major role in the short term - and behind it, there is nothing.


Correct. Looking at the GFS 500mb heights and current surface analysis, the trough is currently in a blocking pattern, with high pressure in front and behind. Looks to be slow moving and eventually flattens out in ~150 hours.

Image
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#68 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 15, 2013 1:43 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1831 UTC THU AUG 15 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN (AL052013) 20130815 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130815 1800 130816 0600 130816 1800 130817 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 27.0W 15.8N 29.7W 16.9N 32.3W 17.8N 34.5W
BAMD 14.6N 27.0W 15.6N 29.3W 16.9N 31.9W 18.5N 34.3W
BAMM 14.6N 27.0W 15.7N 29.6W 17.0N 32.2W 18.2N 34.4W
LBAR 14.6N 27.0W 15.6N 29.5W 17.1N 32.2W 18.6N 34.8W
SHIP 35KTS 43KTS 51KTS 55KTS
DSHP 35KTS 43KTS 51KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130817 1800 130818 1800 130819 1800 130820 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.6N 36.3W 19.3N 39.5W 20.2N 43.2W 21.9N 46.7W
BAMD 20.0N 36.3W 22.7N 39.6W 25.4N 42.3W 27.5N 42.8W
BAMM 19.4N 36.4W 21.2N 39.8W 23.2N 43.6W 25.5N 46.5W
LBAR 20.2N 36.9W 22.9N 40.0W 25.6N 41.9W 28.8N 42.0W
SHIP 55KTS 53KTS 51KTS 57KTS
DSHP 55KTS 53KTS 51KTS 57KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 27.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 14.1N LONM12 = 24.6W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 13.3N LONM24 = 21.8W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#69 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 15, 2013 1:56 pm

Image
18z...NHC the outlier now...
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#70 Postby hurricaneCW » Thu Aug 15, 2013 2:00 pm

It's interesting how the models show it going NW when in reality, Erin would likely shoot off to the west as it weakens, so the NHC has the right idea.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#71 Postby USTropics » Thu Aug 15, 2013 2:21 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:It's interesting how the models show it going NW when in reality, Erin would likely shoot off to the west as it weakens, so the NHC has the right idea.


That's how I see it. If the NHC intensity forecast is close to accurate, the overall pattern suggested by the GFS is a flattening out of the trough, and very weak steering ensuing. The GFS almost has some weak ridging in the past run.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#72 Postby Frank2 » Thu Aug 15, 2013 2:43 pm

The offical track has Erin headed westward but the models go fish (lol) - but a TS at 15N and 25W usually never makes it west of 50W - just my opinion...

Frank
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#73 Postby 'CaneFreak » Thu Aug 15, 2013 3:17 pm

It's not at 15 N Frank...it's at 14.4 N :lol: Just messing with you. I agree.

Frank2 wrote:The offical track has Erin headed westward but the models go fish (lol) - but a TS at 15N and 25W usually never makes it west of 50W - just my opinion...

Frank
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#74 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 15, 2013 7:58 pm

00z Plots.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0054 UTC FRI AUG 16 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN (AL052013) 20130816 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130816 0000 130816 1200 130817 0000 130817 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.2N 28.5W 16.4N 31.1W 17.7N 33.6W 18.7N 35.6W
BAMD 15.2N 28.5W 16.4N 31.0W 18.0N 33.5W 19.8N 35.5W
BAMM 15.2N 28.5W 16.5N 31.2W 17.9N 33.7W 19.2N 35.7W
LBAR 15.2N 28.5W 16.4N 31.0W 18.2N 33.5W 19.8N 35.8W
SHIP 35KTS 40KTS 45KTS 46KTS
DSHP 35KTS 40KTS 45KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130818 0000 130819 0000 130820 0000 130821 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.5N 37.4W 20.5N 40.6W 22.2N 44.1W 24.8N 47.0W
BAMD 21.5N 37.1W 24.6N 40.1W 27.5N 42.0W 28.9N 42.1W
BAMM 20.6N 37.4W 22.8N 40.9W 25.6N 44.5W 28.3N 47.1W
LBAR 21.2N 37.6W 23.5N 40.0W 26.6N 42.0W 29.1N 42.0W
SHIP 46KTS 44KTS 44KTS 48KTS
DSHP 46KTS 44KTS 44KTS 48KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.2N LONCUR = 28.5W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 14.3N LONM12 = 25.9W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 13.8N LONM24 = 23.0W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#75 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 15, 2013 8:06 pm

A weak storm is not going to reach 29N in this flow. Could it even move farther south - i.e. more WSW to SW - for a while?
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#76 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Aug 16, 2013 10:39 pm

00z GFS has Erin intensifying through the next 15 hours
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#77 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 18, 2013 8:47 am

Image
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Models

#78 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Aug 18, 2013 11:45 am

I may be wrong but it looks like the 12zGFS shows this combining with pouch 20 and heading for Florida at about a week so indeed this may not fish after all but it isn't too likely to redevelop as it heads there

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#79 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 18, 2013 2:54 pm

Latest 18Z Guidance:

Image
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