WPAC: PEWA - Tropical Storm

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vrif
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#101 Postby vrif » Sun Aug 18, 2013 2:41 am

Issued at 07:35 UTC, 18 August 2013

WTPQ21 RJTD 180600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1313 PEWA (1313)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180600UTC 12.0N 180.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 190600UTC 13.8N 175.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 200600UTC 15.3N 172.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 210600UTC 17.0N 168.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

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#102 Postby vrif » Sun Aug 18, 2013 2:59 am

WTPQ31 RJTD 180600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR STS 1313 PEWA (1313)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 180600 UTC IS FAIR.
STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
STS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=
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CPAC: PEWA - Tropical Storm

#103 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sun Aug 18, 2013 4:23 am

Pewa has crossed into the WPAC is now Severe Tropical Storm Pewa.

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Re: CPAC: PEWA - Tropical Storm

#104 Postby beoumont » Sun Aug 18, 2013 5:38 am

The Fujimerger process continues- Cloud pattern looks like an inverted S-curve on final frame:

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#105 Postby RL3AO » Sun Aug 18, 2013 5:55 am

Interesting differences between the two US agencies.

NESDIS/SSD

F. T3.5/3.5/S0.0/24HRS

H. REMARKS...CENTER EMBEDDED IN DG FOR DT=4.0. MET IS 3.0 WITH PT=3.5.
FT IS BASED ON PT.


JTWC


F. T2.0/3.0/W1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. A .40 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 2.5.
MET AND PT ARE 2.0. DBO PT.

One gets a data-# of T4.0, which is a hurricane and the other gets a data-# of 2.0 which is a 30kt depression. Both ended up going with the pattern #.
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#106 Postby ninel conde » Sun Aug 18, 2013 6:36 am

amazing stuff.
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Re: WPAC: PEWA - Severe Tropical Storm

#107 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 18, 2013 8:32 am

065
WTPQ31 PGUM 180929
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PEWA (01C) ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU CP012013
800 PM CHST SUN AUG 18 2013

...TROPICAL STORM PEWA (01C) CROSSES THE DATELINE...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.3N 179.4E

ABOUT 665 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 655 MILES EAST OF UTIRIK
ABOUT 975 MILES EAST-SOUTHWEST OF WAKE...AND
ABOUT 2330 MILES EAST OF GUAM.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PEWA (01C)
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 179.4
EAST.

TROPICAL STORM PEWA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH. PEWA IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 55 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM PEWA
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON
MONDAY NIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE MONDAY MORNING AT 200 AM.

$$

AYDLETT
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Re: WPAC: PEWA - Severe Tropical Storm

#108 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 18, 2013 9:19 am

Image


WTPN31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01C (PEWA) WARNING NR 009
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 12.5N 179.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 179.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 13.8N 177.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.5N 175.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.3N 173.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.1N 171.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 22.6N 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 25.3N 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 26.8N 162.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 178.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 01C (PEWA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 833 NM EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
181200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND
191500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (TRAMI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Iceman56

Re:

#109 Postby Iceman56 » Sun Aug 18, 2013 12:00 pm

JTWC always wants to use "curved band pattern" when it's not appropriate, so they end up putting in some really weird stuff for the Data-T. A more appropriate way to go would've been to use shear pattern and that would've assigned a DT of 3, which is much closer to the truth.

RL3AO wrote:Interesting differences between the two US agencies.

NESDIS/SSD
F. T3.5/3.5/S0.0/24HRS

H. REMARKS...CENTER EMBEDDED IN DG FOR DT=4.0. MET IS 3.0 WITH PT=3.5.
FT IS BASED ON PT.

JTWC
F. T2.0/3.0/W1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. A .40 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 2.5.
MET AND PT ARE 2.0. DBO PT.

One gets a data-# of T4.0, which is a hurricane and the other gets a data-# of 2.0 which is a 30kt depression. Both ended up going with the pattern #.
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Re: Re:

#110 Postby RL3AO » Sun Aug 18, 2013 12:03 pm

Iceman56 wrote:JTWC always wants to use "curved band pattern" when it's not appropriate, so they end up putting in some really weird stuff for the Data-T. A more appropriate way to go would've been to use shear pattern and that would've assigned a DT of 3, which is much closer to the truth.


They did the same thing with Trami. Looked like a pretty clear example of CCC, yet they went with curved band.
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Iceman56

Re: Re:

#111 Postby Iceman56 » Sun Aug 18, 2013 12:27 pm

Yeah, this is a case where you could've used CCC too. Pewa's feeling quite a bit of SW'ly shear now, so that's probably why I would've gone with shear pattern. JTWC loves to find curved bands that aren't there.

RL3AO wrote:
Iceman56 wrote:JTWC always wants to use "curved band pattern" when it's not appropriate, so they end up putting in some really weird stuff for the Data-T. A more appropriate way to go would've been to use shear pattern and that would've assigned a DT of 3, which is much closer to the truth.


They did the same thing with Trami. Looked like a pretty clear example of CCC, yet they went with curved band.
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Re: WPAC: PEWA - Severe Tropical Storm

#112 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Aug 18, 2013 2:17 pm

What's the latest in terms of intensity? Did Pewa strengthen or weaken? I read something about wind shear affecting it. :(
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#113 Postby vrif » Sun Aug 18, 2013 2:18 pm

WTPQ21 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1313 PEWA (1313)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181800UTC 12.7N 179.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 191800UTC 15.2N 175.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 201800UTC 18.4N 170.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 211800UTC 21.2N 165.9E 210NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =
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Re: WPAC: PEWA - Severe Tropical Storm

#114 Postby vrif » Sun Aug 18, 2013 4:16 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01C (PEWA) WARNING NR
10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 01C (PEWA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 801 NM EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT CONVECTION AROUND A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. OVERALL ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED WITHIN THE
PAST FEW HOURS AS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS STARTED TO WRAP MORE
TIGHTLY INTO THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PERIPHERIES. INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS BASED ON THE
RECENT IMPROVEMENTS IN STRUCTURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN A DIVERGENT REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). A TUTT
CELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM HAD INITIALLY BEEN HAMPERING THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT HAS RECENTLY STARTED TO MOVE WESTWARD MORE
QUICKLY THAN TS 01C, ALLOWING AN INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS
01C IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE NORTHEAST OF TS 01C.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TS 01C IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, STEADILY TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE TUTT
CELL IN THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS
WITHIN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES OF SEPARATION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK WITH
SLIGHT VARIANCES IN TRANSLATIONAL SPEED AND HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY
TRENDING NORTHWARD. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TRACK.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 01C IS FORECAST TO SLOW AS A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS IN FROM THE EAST AND BEGINS TO RE-ORIENT THE
CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. INITIALLY, THIS TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE TS 01C
TO FURTHER INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 120 AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS
FAVORABLE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK SPEED IN THE EXTENDED TAUS AND IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON
HOW MUCH THE STEERING RIDGE IS AFFECTED BY THE TROUGH. DUE TO THIS,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN
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#115 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Aug 18, 2013 4:20 pm

Pewa is nearing typhoon status this afternoon. An eye is visible on both visible and infrared satellite imagery.
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#116 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 18, 2013 6:46 pm

18/2032 UTC 13.0N 178.8E T4.0/4.0 PEWA -- West Pacific

Supports Typhoon Pewa, at least on 1-min winds.
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Re: WPAC: PEWA - Severe Tropical Storm

#117 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Aug 18, 2013 6:53 pm

Welcome to the other side of the world...when something is a typhoon but it's not (because JMA hasn't upgraded it yet). :lol:
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#118 Postby RL3AO » Sun Aug 18, 2013 7:00 pm

I came up with a T4.0 as well.

Although, JTWC has been a bit lower, so I'm guessing they will go T3.5.
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Re:

#119 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 18, 2013 7:03 pm

RL3AO wrote:I came up with a T4.0 as well.

Although, JTWC has been a bit lower, so I'm guessing they will go T3.5.


If that is the case combined, that would be a case for a 60 kt intensity.
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Re: Re:

#120 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Aug 18, 2013 7:21 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
RL3AO wrote:I came up with a T4.0 as well.

Although, JTWC has been a bit lower, so I'm guessing they will go T3.5.


If that is the case combined, that would be a case for a 60 kt intensity.


I think it will be a typhoon. This system, to me, looks like a Category 2 hurricane elsewhere. It has a small but well-defined eye, a good outflow, and a ring of deep convection wrapping more than halfway around the center.

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