WPAC: PEWA - Tropical Storm

[xtyphooncyclonex]

50 mph on latest advisiory with satellite showing what appears to be an eyewall developing?

I'd go with 55 knts.

Here is my forecast
Now 55 knts
12hr 60 knts
24hr 65 knts
36hr 75 knts
48hr 65 knts
72hr 35 knts
96hr toast

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I partially agree. But, it will slightly weaken then INTENSIFY because the shear is low but it is currently under higher shear.

[Meow]

I partially agree. But, it will slightly weaken then INTENSIFY because the shear is low but it is currently under higher shear.

Pewa may slightly weaken because JMA estimates it will be 50kt tomorrow. CPHC will stop reporting tomorrow.

[dexterlabio]

I never though CPAC will be alive this year, and this Pewa wants to join the WPaC party. will be interesting with 3 active tropical cyclones in WPAC when Pewa enters the region.

[Meow]

Although CPHC estimates Pewa will become a hurricane, Hurricane Pewa should be impossible.



Will we have Typhoon Pewa?

[hurricanes1234]

Up to 50 knots!

CP, 01, 2013081712, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1768W, 50, 1001, TS

[euro6208]

fun days ahead...we have twin TD's near japan and now this system entering the western pacific...

[euro6208]

Hope this does not end like PAKA!

Paka still gives me chills down my spine! Direct hit over us in december!

[euro6208]

EURO goes ballistic with PEWA as it tracks to the Southwest closer to Guam...Major Typhoon anyone???

[beoumont]

Fujiwara in progress.

[hurricanes1234]

Does this mean that Pewa will weaken or stop strengthening?

[beoumont]

Does this mean that Pewa will weaken or stop strengthening?

Will Jonah swallow the whale?
Will the whale swallow Jonah?
Will Jonah and the whale kill each other?

In theory, the larger/more intense circulation absorbs the other. In this case who knows which is which.

Stay tuned. Bets are on.

[CrazyC83]

Is there direct communication between the CPHC and JMA? Or does the JMA just decide on their own?

[Meow]

Is there direct communication between the CPHC and JMA? Or does the JMA just decide on their own?

When Pewa crosses the International Date Line, CPHC’s mission is done, and the agency can no longer decide anything on Pewa.

Based on the experience from Ioke, JMA will issue the first tropical cyclone warning at 00Z, shortly before Pewa crossing.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... s=0&rad2=0

168 hr. Super Typhoon PEWA is forecasted by GFS.

[Kingarabian]

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0

168 hr. Super Typhoon PEWA is forecasted by GFS.

You know how we Hawaiians do it!

[hurricanes1234]

Continues to intensify. Now up to 55 knots.

CP, 01, 2013081718, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1780W, 55, 1000, TS

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA44 PHFO 172040
TCDCP4

TROPICAL STORM PEWA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012013
1100 AM HST SAT AUG 17 2013

PEWA APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. A COUPLE OF
RELATIVELY RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES ARE SHOWING IMPROVED INNER CORE
STRUCTURE. DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC
AROUND THE CENTER AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE VARIOUS AGENCIES WERE UNANIMOUS AT 3.5
OR 55 KT...AND THAT WILL BE THE INTENSITY ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11. PEWA IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE ON A
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

IN THE SHORT TERM...PEWA APPEARS PRIMED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM...AND INCREASE ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK. SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AS PEWA TRACKS UNDERNEATH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AFTER ABOUT 36-48 HOURS...HOWEVER...PEWA/S
FUTURE DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 21N
174W. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN PARTICULARLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
LONGER TERM MOTION OF THIS FEATURE. THE ECMWF MODEL RETROGRESSES THE
UPPER LOW MORE SLOWLY...ALLOWING FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF MORE SHEAR
OVER PEWA. THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT AFTER A SHORTER PERIOD OF SHEAR...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE AWAY MORE QUICKLY AND PEWA WILL HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY UNDERNEATH AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STEADY INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH 48 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL LEVELLING OFF AFTER THAT...
REFLECTING THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM.

THE CENTER OF PEWA IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE
INTO THE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY OF RSMC TOKYO TONIGHT. BASED ON THE
LATEST TRACK...PEWA MAY MAKE THIS CROSSING AROUND 18/0600Z.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 11.7N 178.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 12.5N 180.0E 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 13.8N 177.7E 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 15.0N 175.7E 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 16.2N 173.4E 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 19.0N 169.0E 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 21.5N 165.0E 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 24.5N 160.5E 75 KT 85 MPH

$$

FORECASTER R BALLARD

[beoumont]

Fujiwara continues as both seem to intensify at this time. In the 1990 circumstance the weaker system's convection stretched out E - W and got pulled into the stronger one to the SW; eventually looking like a new spiral band of the dominant storm.

[CrazyC83]

It might have a chance at becoming a hurricane before the dateline at this rate!

[Yellow Evan]

It might have a chance at becoming a hurricane before the dateline at this rate!

It has one more adv cycle left probs.