ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[supercane4867]

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invest_al942013.invest
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201308180634
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Thread that was the topic at Talking Tropics forum for this area of interest.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=115440&start=0

[brunota2003]

Guessing this is 94L:


A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS EMERGING OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AT THIS TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[fci]

Yes, at 12.0N-15.1W moving West at 20.

[mrbagyo]

here's the FLOATER for 94L

[meriland23]

Do you guys think it will behave the same way erin did since it is so close behind? Fish? Just opinions

[ninel conde]

Do you guys think it will behave the same way erin did since it is so close behind? Fish? Just opinions

eventually you would expect one to make it. right now the upper low that ripped up erin is still in the same spot and the air is still rather dry. just saw the TWC tropical update. its going to run into some very dry air.

let me amend this. the upper low might have moved further north which would be good for development.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 18 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ERIN...LOCATED WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EMERGING OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Gustywind]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
455 AM AST SUN AUG 18 2013

LARGE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EMERGED OFF OF AFRICAN CONTINENT YESTERDAY
IS NOW BEING MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WX OUTLOOK. ASCAT AND OSCAT
PASSES FROM YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT RESPECTIVELY SHOW THIS WAVE
HAS A WELL DEFINED SFC CIRCULATION BUT THE CONVECTION REMAINS
LIMITED ATTM. THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE IN A FVRBL ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
SHEAR AND FAR SOUTH OF THE SAL. SINCE THIS IS A LARGE WAVE AND
LOCATED PRETTY FAR SOUTH IT WILL TAKE SVRL DAYS FOR THIS WAVE TO
ORGANIZE BUT I EXPECT THAT IT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 5-10 DAYS.

[RL3AO]

Gut feeling is this one will make it further west before developing. Could be one to watch sooner or later.

[KWT]

As with Erin, it lurches WNW/NW then there is enough dry air to probably finish it off as a prospect, at least in the 4-7 day range, if it can stay south of 15N, then conditions seem to be ok.

[Gustywind]

8 AM Discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG COAST OF W AFRICA EXTENDING FROM A 1007
MB LOW OVER THE S PENINSULA OF SENEGAL NEAR 12.5N16W ALONG 9N17W
TO 4N18W DRIFTING W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-13N E OF 18W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA.

[cycloneye]

Gut feeling is this one will make it further west before developing. Could be one to watch sooner or later.

Is large and that alone will cause it to be slow developing and that slow process will not favor a Erin type track.

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Gustywind]

From Wunderground.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... track.html

Tracking Info For Invest 94L

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
06 GMT 08/18/13 12.0N 15.1W 20 1007 Invest

[Gustywind]

From NRL weather site:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... m&PROD=vis

20130818.0845.94LINVEST.20kts-1007mb-120N-151W.

[RL3AO]

From NRL weather site:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... m&PROD=vis

20130818.0845.94LINVEST.20kts-1007mb-120N-151W.

From Wunderground.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... track.html

Tracking Info For Invest 94L

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
06 GMT 08/18/13 12.0N 15.1W 20 1007 Invest

This is the same info. Both comes from the ATCF system from NHC.

[Gustywind]

From NRL weather site:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... m&PROD=vis

20130818.0845.94LINVEST.20kts-1007mb-120N-151W.

From Wunderground.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... track.html

Tracking Info For Invest 94L

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
06 GMT 08/18/13 12.0N 15.1W 20 1007 Invest

This is the same info. Both comes from the ATCF system from NHC.

Thanks so that's good news.

[wxman57]

Doesn't look like much on satellite. Strange to initiate an invest for a system still over Africa, particularly one with little model support for development. None of the models is really developing it. They all show a weak low in the area that tracks westward as an open wave.

[ninel conde]

Doesn't look like much on satellite. Strange to initiate an invest for a system still over Africa, particularly one with little model support for development. None of the models is really developing it. They all show a weak low in the area that tracks westward as an open wave.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/94La.gif

it also has a big surge of mid level dry air to deal with.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... vmid&time=

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track.

AL, 94, 2013081812, , BEST, 0, 121N, 200W, 20, 1008, DB

[RL3AO]

Its a wave in mid-August. Thats about all it has going for it right now.