ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

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ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#1 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Aug 18, 2013 2:35 am

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*   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    * GOES PROXY USED,      OHC AVAILABLE       *
                    *      INVEST  AL942013  08/18/13  06 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    22    26    29    34    44    53    61    67    71    72    75    77
V (KT) LAND       20    22    27    31    35    46    55    63    68    72    74    77    79
V (KT) LGE mod    20    22    26    28    30    35    44    54    65    71    73    75    78
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        27    24    22    20    19     6     7    10    11    12     8     5     6
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -2    -3    -1     0    -2     0    -1    -2    -1    -1    -1    -2    -1
SHEAR DIR         41    44    38    32    43    63   158   178   185   174   195   187   207
SST (C)         27.7  28.1  28.1  28.0  27.8  26.7  26.0  25.9  25.9  25.9  26.2  26.5  26.7
POT. INT. (KT)   135   139   139   138   135   122   115   114   114   113   116   118   120
ADJ. POT. INT.   138   140   139   137   134   118   109   108   108   107   109   112   112
200 MB T (C)   -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4
TH_E DEV (C)       6     7     8     6     5     6     5     5     5     6     6     7     7
700-500 MB RH     70    67    67    65    63    60    58    58    56    53    54    52    54
GFS VTEX (KT)      7  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR   144   132   126   133   127   131   144   146   141   138   129   111   103
200 MB DIV         4    19    32    52    44    51    38    59    23     4    -1   -17    -4
700-850 TADV     -26   -20   -25   -32   -26   -14    -7    -5    -1    -3    -1     0     0
LAND (KM)        -43   -46    75   177   264   522   793  1060  1329  1582  1804  2018  1950
LAT (DEG N)     12.0  12.6  13.1  13.7  14.3  15.6  16.5  16.8  16.5  16.3  15.9  15.8  15.8
LONG(DEG W)     15.1  16.3  17.5  18.7  19.9  22.3  24.7  27.2  29.8  32.2  34.3  36.3  38.0
STM SPEED (KT)    16    13    13    13    13    13    12    12    12    11    10     9     8
HEAT CONTENT      14    19     7     7     3     2     0     0     1     3     1     2     6
Last edited by tolakram on Sun Aug 18, 2013 7:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: added code block
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#2 Postby Florida1118 » Sun Aug 18, 2013 3:03 am

Early track and intensity guidance

Image



Image
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#3 Postby ninel conde » Sun Aug 18, 2013 5:47 am

GFS shows nothing out thru 168 hours. CMC nothing thru 168 at 0Z. euro nothing thru 240
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#4 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 18, 2013 7:41 am

06Z GFS 240 hours position is the blue area well NE of Leewards around 25N, 58W:

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Aug 18, 2013 8:16 am, edited 6 times in total.
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#5 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 18, 2013 7:44 am

00Z ECMWF tracks the invest to just Northeast of Leewards at 240 hours:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 18, 2013 7:50 am

12z plots makes it a cat 2. I don't think is realistic to see it that strong in 120 hours.

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1244 UTC SUN AUG 18 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942013) 20130818 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130818 1200 130819 0000 130819 1200 130820 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.1N 20.0W 12.4N 22.1W 13.0N 24.0W 13.7N 25.6W
BAMD 12.1N 20.0W 12.3N 22.7W 12.7N 25.3W 13.3N 27.7W
BAMM 12.1N 20.0W 12.3N 22.5W 12.8N 24.9W 13.3N 26.9W
LBAR 12.1N 20.0W 12.3N 23.7W 12.8N 27.5W 13.4N 31.5W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 34KTS 44KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 34KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130820 1200 130821 1200 130822 1200 130823 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.4N 27.3W 15.5N 30.6W 16.7N 33.6W 18.0N 36.9W
BAMD 13.7N 30.2W 14.1N 34.8W 14.5N 38.4W 15.2N 41.4W
BAMM 13.8N 28.9W 14.4N 32.5W 15.1N 35.3W 16.2N 38.1W
LBAR 14.1N 35.7W 14.3N 44.0W 11.2N 46.6W 10.4N 47.3W
SHIP 53KTS 71KTS 84KTS 92KTS
DSHP 53KTS 71KTS 84KTS 92KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.1N LONCUR = 20.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 22KT
LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 16.5W DIRM12 = 271DEG SPDM12 = 25KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 9.1W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#7 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 18, 2013 8:11 am

00Z GEM keeps 94L weak until it gets to about 60W a little Northeast of the Leewards and then it quickly develops it. Here we are at 240 hours:

Image
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#8 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 18, 2013 8:23 am

What is that hurricane off Morocco? A model bug?
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Re:

#9 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 18, 2013 8:28 am

CrazyC83 wrote:What is that hurricane off Morocco? A model bug?


Looks like a Tropical Tidbits bug (the site where I am getting those model images). The MSLP images don't show this and only show 92L as a weak wave passing through the Leewards at 240 hours:
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#10 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 18, 2013 12:49 pm

Image
Image
Approaching Cat 3...
Last edited by Blown Away on Sun Aug 18, 2013 12:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#11 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Aug 18, 2013 12:52 pm

Blown Away wrote:Image
Approaching Cat 3...


yep, but the intensity models are way too robust especially looking at the structure of the system

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#12 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 18, 2013 12:53 pm

12Z GFS less bullish. Moves 92L between WNW and NW and eventually fizzles it.

Model run here:
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance ... imageSize=
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 18, 2013 1:42 pm

18z plots.

WHXX01 KWBC 181835
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1835 UTC SUN AUG 18 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942013) 20130818 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130818 1800 130819 0600 130819 1800 130820 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.1N 21.9W 12.3N 24.1W 12.7N 25.7W 13.2N 27.3W
BAMD 12.1N 21.9W 12.4N 24.5W 12.9N 27.1W 13.3N 29.5W
BAMM 12.1N 21.9W 12.4N 24.4W 12.8N 26.6W 13.3N 28.6W
LBAR 12.1N 21.9W 12.2N 25.3W 12.9N 28.9W 13.5N 32.7W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 35KTS 46KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 35KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130820 1800 130821 1800 130822 1800 130823 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 28.7W 15.6N 31.6W 17.4N 34.6W 19.2N 38.0W
BAMD 13.6N 31.9W 14.3N 36.1W 15.4N 39.6W 16.8N 42.6W
BAMM 13.7N 30.5W 14.7N 33.8W 16.1N 36.7W 17.7N 39.7W
LBAR 14.3N 36.8W 14.3N 44.4W 12.3N 46.5W 0.0N 0.0W
SHIP 55KTS 71KTS 79KTS 80KTS
DSHP 55KTS 71KTS 79KTS 80KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.1N LONCUR = 21.9W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 18.5W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 13.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#14 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 18, 2013 2:18 pm

Notice the models keep it at a fairly low latitude throughout the next 5 days...
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#15 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 18, 2013 2:40 pm

18Z model guidance:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#16 Postby Cyclenall » Sun Aug 18, 2013 4:23 pm

cycloneye wrote:12z plots makes it a cat 2. I don't think is realistic to see it that strong in 120 hours.

That fact that we are discussing how a cat 2 in late August in the deep tropics is unrealistic is a very sad testament to how this August is shaping up, Hurricane Bertha in July 2008 surpassed this. This is strong El Nino level nonsense. Now I'm feeling pretty duped thinking that July was going to be very active, let alone August!!! :roll: . Not saying this hurricane season won't be active, just stunned at the last two months and what I expected, not what the average hurricane season looks like.

CrazyC83 wrote:Notice the models keep it at a fairly low latitude throughout the next 5 days...

Aren't they showing the opposite? Doesn't look low to me. I don't see too many due west tracks in there.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#17 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 18, 2013 4:55 pm

Image
18z..Cat 1 borderline Cat 2 in 120 hours...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#18 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Aug 18, 2013 9:13 pm

I think 94L could be our first hurricane of the season if conditions are right.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#19 Postby blp » Mon Aug 19, 2013 6:33 pm

18z brings it back in the Bahamas. I think this one may be a sleeper.
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#20 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 19, 2013 7:17 pm

Do any models keep it westward? This could be an EPAC threat eventually given the timing if so.
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