EPAC: IVO - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVO ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013

...CENTER OF IVO RE-LOCATED TO THE WEST...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 113.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM W OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS
* THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM
LORETO SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA
ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IVO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.4 WEST. IVO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVO
WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IVO IS MOVING OVER COLDER WATER...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES...315 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
TODAY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...IVO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5
INCHES...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IVO ARE AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD TODAY...AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013

EVEN WITH THE HELP OF MICROWAVE DATA...THE CENTER OF IVO HAS BEEN
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS MORNING. OSCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA DURING
THE NIGHT INDICATED THAT THE CENTER WAS ELONGATED FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...AND A RECENT SSM/I OVERPASS SUGGESTED THAT MULTIPLE
LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTERS WERE PRESENT. FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE
IMAGERY SUPPORTS A CENTER WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...NEAR THE
NORTHERNMOST OF THE TWO MAIN CONVECTIVE MASSES. THERE IS NO CHANGE
TO ANY OF THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 40 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 340/10. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO
THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE CENTER
POSITION AND INITIAL MOTION. IVO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
OVER MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONE WILL SHEAR
APART IN 24-48 HR...WITH THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL PORTION CONTINUING
NORTHWARD AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER STALLING WEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS
SCENARIO...AND IT IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION.

IVO SHOULD START WEAKENING WITHIN 12-24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER THE
COLDER WATER WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HR AND DISSIPATE
COMPLETELY BY 96 HR.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IVO IS SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. MOISTURE FROM THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES...AND CAUSE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 22.5N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 23.8N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 25.4N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 26.6N 115.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 26/1200Z 27.0N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1200Z 27.5N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 241750
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013
1100 AM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013

...IVO BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND FORECAST TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 113.7W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM W OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS
* THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM
LORETO SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA
ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IVO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.7 WEST. IVO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVO
WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH IVO IS DECREASING...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES...315 KM
FROM THE CENTER. AN AUTOMATED STATION NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 45 MPH...72 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
TODAY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...IVO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5
INCHES...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IVO ARE AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD TODAY...AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013

THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IVO HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE REMAINING ORGANIZED CONVECTION NOW IN THIN
BANDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. BASED ON THIS AND THE CONTINUED
MOTION OVER COLDER WATER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 35
KT. VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE ARE STILL MULTIPLE
LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTERS PRESENT...WHICH CONTINUES TO COMPLICATE
THE CENTER FINDING.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 335/10. IVO SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL THE SYSTEM SHEARS APART IN
24-36 HR. AFTER THAT...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SHOULD STALL WEST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHILE THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL REMNANTS
CONTINUE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

IVO SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE COLDER WATER WEST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HR AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY
96 HR.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IVO IS SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. EVEN THOUGH IVO IS WEAKENING...MOISTURE
FROM THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 22.9N 114.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 24.2N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 25.6N 115.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 26.5N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 26/1800Z 26.8N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1800Z 27.0N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Yellow Evan]

Don't know why they dropped the watches and warnings.

[cycloneye]

Down to TD.

EP, 09, 2013082500, , BEST, 0, 232N, 1142W, 30, 1002, TD

[Andrew92]

We're supposed to get some very nasty weather from this storm where I live in Arizona. There's about a 50 percent chance of rain where I live and an 80 percent chance in the Grand Canyon (I know that because I was going to go there tomorrow but now need to seriously re-consider). I'm personally surprised we haven't gotten more rain from these storms in the last few years since I moved here.

-Andrew92

[Yellow Evan]

We're supposed to get some very nasty weather from this storm where I live in Arizona. There's about a 50 percent chance of rain where I live and an 80 percent chance in the Grand Canyon (I know that because I was going to go there tomorrow but now need to seriously re-consider). I'm personally surprised we haven't gotten more rain from these storms in the last few years since I moved here.

-Andrew92

I blame La Nina/cold PDO. Back in the day, you got 3 ex-TC's a year sometimes affect Arizona.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013

THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IVO HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE AS
THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS. THERE ARE STILL
A FEW PATCHES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN BANDS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUPPORT LOWERING
THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 30 KNOTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER EVEN COOLER WATERS
AND THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS BECOME DECOUPLED.

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8
KNOTS. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS UNTIL IVO WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE. BY THEN...
IVO WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO MEANDER IN THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

MOISTURE FROM THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 23.5N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 24.6N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 25.8N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/1200Z 26.5N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0000Z 26.5N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0000Z 26.5N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013

DESPITE BEING OVER WATERS COLDER THAN 24C...IVO HAS BEEN PRODUCING A
BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF ITS CENTER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT BASED ON A RECENT ASCAT PASS...
WHICH STILL SHOWED LARGE AREAS OF 25- TO 30-KT WINDS TO THE EAST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN AS IVO MOVES OVER EVEN COLDER WATER...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE DEPRESSION DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT
LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 72
HOURS.

IVO HAS PICKED UP A LITTLE BIT OF SPEED AND IS MOVING 335/9 KT...AND
THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO. LOW-LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SHOULD CAUSE THE REMNANT LOW TO STALL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS
AND THEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION.

MOISTURE FROM IVO IS SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 24.4N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 25.7N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 26.8N 115.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/1800Z 27.1N 116.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0600Z 26.6N 116.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013

COOL WATER AND STABLE AIR ARE TAKING A TOLL ON IVO...AS THE
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING THIS
MORNING. NEARLY ALL OF THE REMAINING COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE NOW
LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A
RECENT SHIP OBSERVATION AND EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. IVO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. IVO SHOULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY
OR TONIGHT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/8 KT. IVO IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT
TIME...THE REMNANT LOW IS LIKELY TO DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTHWARD IN
THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.

MOISTURE FROM IVO CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 25.1N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 26.1N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 26/1200Z 26.7N 115.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/0000Z 26.7N 116.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/1200Z 26.5N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Yellow Evan]

Ivo is almost done IMO.

[Andrew92]

Ivo is almost done IMO.

As a tropical cyclone yes. But don't tell that to us in Arizona! It is very humid today with lots of rain to our west streaming northward and more apparently coming. Now if we could just get some in my neighborhood.

-Andrew92

[cycloneye]

Last advisory.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013

IVO HAS BECOME A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SOME
WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
THE SYSTEM HAS LACKED ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12
HOURS...AND IS OVER SSTS OF AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS. AS A
RESULT...ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN...AND
IVO IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT
AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH A RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT-B OVERPASS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/7 KT. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD SLOW DOWN
AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE UPDATED
TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
FLASH FLOODING IN THESE AREAS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 25.7N 115.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 26/0600Z 26.4N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 26/1800Z 26.7N 116.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/0600Z 26.6N 116.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/1800Z 26.5N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Yellow Evan]

Ivo is almost done IMO.

As a tropical cyclone yes. But don't tell that to us in Arizona! It is very humid today with lots of rain to our west streaming northward and more apparently coming. Now if we could just get some in my neighborhood.

-Andrew92

AZ IMO is just getting started with rain. More moisture could arrive tonight and tomorrow.