EPAC: IVO - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013
200 PM PDT THU AUG 22 2013

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED
JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND
THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
SYSTEM. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE HELD STEADY AND THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT. THERE IS A RELATIVELY SHORT
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN...SINCE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY IN 48 HOURS
OR LESS. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION...330/5...CONTINUES. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST OR REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYLONE...AND TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CAUSED BY A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE GFS IS
SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST AND THE ECMWF IS FARTHER WEST...AND SLOWER.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION COULD BEGIN SURGING
NORTHWARD TOWARD NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS...INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 17.7N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 18.5N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 19.7N 113.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 21.1N 113.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 22.7N 114.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 25.5N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/1800Z 27.5N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/1800Z 27.5N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HurricaneDREW92]

Are they being conservative intensity wise?

[Yellow Evan]

Are they being conservative intensity wise?

No, this may even IMO stay a TD.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013
800 PM PDT THU AUG 22 2013

ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IS INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER...THE
OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN STRUCTURE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE
CIRCULATION...AND THE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXTENDS AS FAR EAST AS THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO WHERE HEAVY RAINS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...AND IT HAS THE
OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
BEFORE THE CIRCULATION REACHES THE COOLER WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. IN FACT...NONE OF THE MODELS BRING THE
CYCLONE ABOVE 40 TO 45 KNOTS DURING THAT PERIOD.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT THE
LONG TERM MOTION APPEARS TO BE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330
DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY LOCATED ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND IS HEADING TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE
CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP
THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THE NEXT 4 DAYS...BRINGING THE
CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. THE NHC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND HAS GIVEN A LITTLE LESS WEIGHT TO THE GFS WHICH
SHOWS A TRACK CLOSER TO THE PENISULA.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE COULD BEGIN SURGING
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 17.9N 112.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 18.7N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 20.0N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 21.5N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 23.0N 114.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/0000Z 26.0N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/0000Z 28.0N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/0000Z 28.0N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Yellow Evan]

Looks poorly organized but maybe TS status IMO for me.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Don't waste a name NHC, save it for a better looking storm.

[supercane4867]

Doesn't look that bad, it has the deepest convection I've seen in this part of world for a while

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[hurricanes1234]

Isn't 1002 mbar or 1001 mbar a bit low for a tropical depression?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 23 2013

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 112.4W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES




TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 23 2013

CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING THE
CENTER NOW EMBEDDED IN THE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST. ASCAT DATA LAST
NIGHT SHOWED SOME 35 KT VECTORS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
BASED ON THESE DATA AND THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35 KT. THE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED
THAT IVO HAS SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF MONSOON CYCLONES OF THE
EASTERN HEMISPHERE...INCLUDING A VERY LARGE AREA OF 20-30 KT WINDS
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT
THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTER TO JUST NORTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND.

MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CENTER IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN 360/4. IVO IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER MEXICO...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD AN AREA OF
SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WEST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS
COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT... THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS...HWRF...NAVGEM...
AND CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST IVO TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO SHEAR
APART...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER STALLING OVER THE PACIFIC WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LATTER SCENARIO
AND CALLS FOR A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER 48 HR. THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION.

GRADUAL STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY UNTIL IVO REACHES COLDER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW OVER THE COLD WATERS
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IVO IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTHWARD OVER THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...INCREASING
THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 18.7N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 19.8N 112.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 21.5N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 23.3N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 25.1N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/1200Z 27.0N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/1200Z 28.0N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Yellow Evan]

Doesn't look that bad, it has the deepest convection I've seen in this part of world for a while

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Likely bad for AZ and CA and NV interests as the deeper convection could lead to more rain (or good cause they are in a drought)

[jaguarjace]

Doesn't look that bad, it has the deepest convection I've seen in this part of world for a while

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Likely bad for AZ and CA and NV interests as the deeper convection could lead to more rain (or good cause they are in a drought)

If the remnants of Ivo do make it to CA, it may help contain the Rim fire. CA really does need the rain.

[Yellow Evan]

Doesn't look that bad, it has the deepest convection I've seen in this part of world for a while

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Likely bad for AZ and CA and NV interests as the deeper convection could lead to more rain (or good cause they are in a drought)

If the remnants of Ivo do make it to CA, it may help contain the Rim fire. CA really does need the rain.

I think Arizona is more likely to get rain than Northern California.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 23 2013

...CENTER OF IVO REFORMS TO THE NORTHEAST...
...WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 111.8W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS...AND FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LORETO SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN
LUCAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA
ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA.





TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 23 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF IVO
HAS REFORMED TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE
ASCAT DATA ALSO SHOW THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
40 KT...AND THESE WINDS ARE MAINLY IN AN AREA ABOUT 150 N MI FROM
THE CENTER OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES.

THE REFORMATION MAKES THE INITIAL MOTION VERY UNCERTAIN...WITH THE
BEST ESTIMATE OF 360/5. IVO REMAINS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD
AN AREA OF SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WEST OF
CALIFORNIA. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE
GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...
THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE. THE
GFS...HWRF...AND CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST IVO TO MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS FORECAST
THE SYSTEM TO SHEAR APART...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER STALLING OVER
THE PACIFIC WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE NAVGEM
SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...SHOWING A CONTINUED
SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE TRACK FORECAST STILL FOLLOWS
THE ECMWF/UKMET SCENARIO AND CALLS FOR THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANTS OF
IVO TO STALL WEST OF BAJA AFTER 48 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE POSITION OF
THE REFORMED CENTER.

GRADUAL STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY UNTIL IVO REACHES COLDER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW OVER THE COLD WATERS
WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BUT IS OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO IT.

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK AND THE LARGE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD REQUIRE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IVO IS
EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTHWARD OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH
FLOODING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 19.5N 111.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 20.6N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 22.6N 112.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 24.4N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 26.1N 114.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/1800Z 28.0N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/1800Z 28.0N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 232036
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 23 2013

...CENTER OF IVO REFORMS TO THE NORTHEAST...
...WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 111.8W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS...AND FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LORETO SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN
LUCAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA
ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS
* THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM
LORETO SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA
ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IVO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST. IVO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...IVO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5
INCHES...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IVO ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Hurricane_Luis]

I'm pleasantly surprised, Ivo don't look that bad after all.

Tropical Storm Ivo

[Yellow Evan]

I'm pleasantly surprised, Ivo don't look that bad after all.

Tropical Storm Ivo

Still almost looks like 2 systems.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013
500 PM PDT FRI AUG 23 2013

...SQUALLS ALREADY APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 111.9W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS
* THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM
LORETO SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA
ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IVO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST. IVO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

IVO HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

IVO IS A LARGE CYCLONE...AND THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...IVO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5
INCHES...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IVO ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVO ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 23 2013

...LARGE IVO MOVING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 112.0W
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS
* THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM
LORETO SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA
ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IVO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.0 WEST. IVO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H....AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVO WILL MOVE ON A TRACK PARALLEL TO THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
18 HOURS...BUT WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AFTER THAT TIME.

IVO IS A LARGE CYCLONE...AND THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...IVO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5
INCHES...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IVO ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 23 2013

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS...AND IVO STILL CONSISTS OF A LARGE CIRCULATION
DEVOID OF AN INNER CORE. IN FACT...THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OR THE
AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN PIVOTING WITHIN A LARGER CYCLONIC
GYRE. IN ADDITION...THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
DIMINISHING...AND THERE IS LITTLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE
ESTIMATED CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES SUGGEST LOWER WINDS...EARLIER ASCAT DATA AS WELL AS SHIP
REPORTS SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL 40 KNOTS. THESE
STRONG WINDS ARE WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. IVO HAS A SMALL
OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BEFORE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SOONER.

SINCE THE CENTER HAS BEEN REFORMING WITHIN THE LARGE GYRE...THE
INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IT APPEARS...HOWEVER...THAT THE
CYCLONE IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS...A LITTLE
FASTER THAN EARLIER TODAY. IVO CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND IS HEADING TOWARD A WEAKNESS
INDUCED BY AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER IVO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL THE CYCLONE
WEAKENS...BECOMES SHALLOW...AND THEN BEGINS TO MEANDER WITHIN THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN ABOUT 3 TO 4 DAYS. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE IS QUITE LARGE
WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING A NORTHWARD TRACK AND OTHERS A TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE LATTER SCENARIO...WHICH INCLUDE THE ECMWF...IS
PROBABLY THE RESULT OF THE MODELS ASSUMING IVO TO BE A MUCH WEAKER
AND SHALLOW CYCLONE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 20.7N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 22.1N 112.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 23.8N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 25.5N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 26.5N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/0000Z 28.0N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/0000Z 28.0N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVO ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 112.7W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM W OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS
* THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM
LORETO SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA
ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IVO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.7 WEST. IVO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVO
WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TONIGHT.

IVO IS A LARGE CYCLONE...AND THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES...315 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
TODAY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...IVO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5
INCHES...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IVO ARE AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD TODAY...AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN





TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013

THE STRUCTURE OF IVO HAS EVOLVED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS GAINED CURVATURE AND BECOME MORE
SYMMETRIC...THE INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECREASING.
GIVEN THESE MIXED SIGNALS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 40
KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH A SHIP REPORT OF 40 KT TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT. IVO IS MOVING OVER A SHARP SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND IT SHOULD BE OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS NARROWING...AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
TO COMMENCE BY TONIGHT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT
LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WHEN IT WILL BE OVER SSTS NEAR 20C AND IN A
STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

IVO HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...AS EXPECTED...AND HAS SPED
UP SOME...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 345/12. A CONTINUED
NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE STORM MOVES TOWARD A
PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A SIGNIFICANT SLOW
DOWN IS FORECAST BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS ONCE THE CYCLONE BECOMES
SHALLOW AND IS INFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD THIS CYCLE...AND THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION AND IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IVO IS SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 22.4N 112.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 23.6N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 25.3N 114.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 26.8N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 26/0600Z 27.6N 115.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/0600Z 28.3N 116.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013
500 AM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013

...WINDS AND RAINS FROM IVO SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 112.8W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM W OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS
* THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM
LORETO SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA
ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IVO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.8 WEST. IVO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVO
WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TONIGHT.

IVO IS A LARGE CYCLONE...AND THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES...315 KM FROM THE CENTER. AUTOMATED WEATHER
STATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
HAVE REPORTED WIND GUSTS OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
TODAY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...IVO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5
INCHES...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IVO ARE AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD TODAY...AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN