WPAC: Tropical Storm Kong-rey (14W) (Nando, PAGASA)

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WPAC: Tropical Storm Kong-rey (14W) (Nando, PAGASA)

#1 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Aug 21, 2013 2:41 pm

11.5N.140.5E

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#2 Postby vrif » Thu Aug 22, 2013 1:28 am

91W is classed as a LPA since the last 00Z bulletin.

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 09N 142E WNW SLOWLY.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#3 Postby vrif » Thu Aug 22, 2013 2:24 am

The LLCC is visible on the OSCAT pass.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#4 Postby dhoeze » Thu Aug 22, 2013 3:09 am

:cry: to soon...

Guys,
as early as now, any prediction on the track?
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#5 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Aug 22, 2013 4:41 am

Image
Image

dhoeze wrote::cry: to soon...

Guys,
as early as now, any prediction on the track?


latest runs from GFS take this to northern Luzon as a weak disturbance...
(I'm not that sure if this is the one being shown by GFS... :double: there is another disturbance south of Guam)
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WPAC: Invest 91W

#6 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Thu Aug 22, 2013 11:00 am

GFS shows a Tropical Storm south of the Philippines on August 25th.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#7 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Aug 23, 2013 12:09 am

I'm totally lost with this one...
west of GUAM
mrbagyo wrote:Image

then near PALAU?
Image

:lol:
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#8 Postby vrif » Fri Aug 23, 2013 1:30 am

Latest OSCAT pass and JTWC is tracking 91W now.
Image

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.3N 135.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 70 NM SOUTH OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
HAS STARTED TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE WITH WEAK FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.
SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 221452Z SHOWS A WEAK, (05-10 KNOTS) BROAD
CIRCULATION IN THE AREA AND A WESTERLY WIND BURST ALONG THE EQUATOR
JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 230107Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO IMPROVE BUT
OVERALL REMAINS POOR. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE LLCC IS
EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS PROVIDING MODERATE OUTFLOW
AND MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#9 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Aug 23, 2013 2:46 am

GFS 00z - 84 hrs
Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#10 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Aug 24, 2013 2:35 am

strong easterly wind shear is affecting 91W
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.3N 135.1E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 133.0E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A POORLY-DEFINED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DISORGANIZED, ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE LLCC. A
240022Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH VIGOROUS 20 TO 25 KNOT WESTERLIES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE AND 10 TO 15 KNOT EASTERLIES
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM KOROR
INDICATE 10 TO 15 KNOT SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS WITH A SLP VALUE
NEAR 1009 MB. THE LLCC IS LOCATED WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BASED ON THE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND ELONGATED NATURE OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#11 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sat Aug 24, 2013 1:41 pm

Upgraded to medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0N
133.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 132.0E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
NORTHWEST OF KOROR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 241106Z SSMIS
37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF A BROAD LLCC. A 240022Z
ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH WITH VIGOROUS 20 TO 25 KNOT WESTERLIES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE AND 10 TO 15 KNOT EASTERLIES
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM KOROR
INDICATE 10 TO 15 KNOT SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS WITH A SLP VALUE
NEAR 1010 MB. HOWEVER, THE 24/00Z KOROR SOUNDING INDICATES A DEEP
LAYER OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH ABOUT 15000 FEET. THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND BROAD UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, VWS SHOULD
DECREASE ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY AND CONSOLIDATE INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS INDICATED BY BOTH NAVGEM AND GFS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#12 Postby vrif » Sat Aug 24, 2013 2:18 pm

Latest OSCAT pass.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#13 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Aug 24, 2013 8:05 pm

Consolidating...

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#14 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Aug 24, 2013 8:40 pm

JMA estimates that within 24 hours, 91W (TD a) will become a tropical storm and it shall be named Kong-rey.

Image

TD
Issued at 01:30 UTC, 25 August 2013

<Analyses at 25/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N11°00'(11.0°)
E129°30'(129.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 26/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°10'(14.2°)
E128°20'(128.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)
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#15 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Aug 24, 2013 8:45 pm

JTWC has issued a TCFA on 91W, I currently disagree in their position

WTPN22 PGTW 250130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3N 130.5E TO 17.4N 126.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
242330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N
130.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.4N
132.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 130.0E, APPROXIMATELY 565 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, BASED ON AN OLDER 241452Z OSCAT PASS. ALTHOUGH
THE WIND SPEEDS REMAIN WEAKER NEAR THE CENTER, THE IMPROVING UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED VENTILATION OF THE SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN COMBINATION WITH FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, THE POSSIBILITY FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE. CURRENTLY MUCH OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING OVERALL ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260130Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#16 Postby vrif » Sat Aug 24, 2013 9:05 pm

JMA reasoning.

WTPQ30 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 11.0N 129.5E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 250000 UTC IS POOR.
TD WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TD WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

WTPQ20 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250000UTC 11.0N 129.5E POOR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 260000UTC 14.2N 128.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
Last edited by vrif on Sat Aug 24, 2013 9:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#17 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Aug 24, 2013 9:06 pm

I cant tell where the CoC is. There seems to be cyclonic turning near 130E, but there also looks to be a circulation well west of 130E..near the deep convection.



If JMA already issued warning on the TD, I expect PAGASA to follow suit and name it "Kiko".
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#18 Postby ManilaTC » Sat Aug 24, 2013 9:34 pm

JMA makes the right call in upgrading 91W into a Tropical Depression, as OceanSAT passes have been getting 25-35 kts winds...

dexterlabio: It will be named "Nando" --- Labuyo, Maring, Nando... you are 3 storms behind man hehehe...

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#19 Postby jaguarjace » Sat Aug 24, 2013 9:40 pm

The name Nando reminds me of the Peri-Peri Chicken Restaurant we have here in Australia. :lol:
http://www.nandos.com.au/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#20 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 24, 2013 11:29 pm

20130825 0232 10.9 -128.4 T1.0/1.0 91W 91W
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