WPAC: Tropical Storm Kong-rey (14W) (Nando, PAGASA)

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#41 Postby phwxenthusiast » Tue Aug 27, 2013 7:35 pm

Basco reporting 65kph with 971hPa pressure according to PAGASA...

btw, i just realized that AMSR2 is operational now on the tropical floaters (NRLMRY)... does anybody know when it went online and what sensor it is using right now?? i remember the AMSRE stopped working in 2011; good thing they replaced now--more microwave sensors for the tropics!! :D
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Kong-rey (14W) (Nando, PAGASA)

#42 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Aug 28, 2013 4:23 am

Kong- rey is now a severe tropical storm... JMA - expecting a 65 knot typhoon??
personally, I don't think this will reach typhoon status due to wind shear... but let's see...
Image
STS 1315 (KONG-REY)
Issued at 08:45 UTC, 28 August 2013

<Analyses at 28/08 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N22°20'(22.3°)
E122°40'(122.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE370km(200NM)
NW280km(150NM)

<Estimate for 28/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N22°30'(22.5°)
E122°40'(122.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE370km(200NM)
NW280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 28/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°20'(23.3°)
E122°30'(122.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL190km(100NM)

<Forecast for 29/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°40'(25.7°)
E122°35'(122.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 30/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N29°25'(29.4°)
E125°30'(125.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 31/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N33°35'(33.6°)
E132°00'(132.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Kong-rey (14W) (Nando, PAGASA)

#43 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Aug 28, 2013 7:13 am

wow... Kong-rey is putting an impressive convective show...
Image

TXPQ23 KNES 280911
TCSWNP

A. 14W (KONG-REY)

B. 28/0832Z

C. 22.2N

D. 122.8E


E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...GREAETER THAN .3 DEGREE INTO DG FOR DT=3.5. MET=4.0 WITH
PT=3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

28/0649Z 22.0N 122.7E AMSU


...SALEMI
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Kong-rey (14W) (Nando, PAGASA)

#44 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Aug 28, 2013 10:18 am

WDPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (KONG-REY) WARNING
NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 14W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 177 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE (EIR) IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
OVERHEAD AS WELL AS RECENTLY DEVELOPED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. A 281202Z 37 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS SEVERAL TIGHTLY WRAPPED CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALING INTO THE
LLCC WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR
AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 14W IS JUST
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO
HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS
OFFSET BY STRONG WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS 14W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 14W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THE STR AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD. TS 14W IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THOUGH VWS IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE SYSTEM
DRIFTS NORTH, LAND INTERACTION DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO TAIWAN
AND THE EAST COAST OF CHINA WILL DISRUPT THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AND
AID IN THE WEAKENING. ADDITIONALLY, THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, AT APPROXIMATELY
TAU 36, AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VWS WITH THE ONSET OF STRONG
WESTERLIES. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT TAU 48 AND COMPLETE TRANSITION BY TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 14W IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF JAPAN AS A COLD-CORE EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS FALLEN INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST TRACK, THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING GFDN, WITH
ONLY SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN TRACK SPEED AND INTENSITY AT THE LATER
TAUS. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AROUND THE RECURVE POINT AS THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER WESTWARD, TOWARDS THE
EAST COAST OF CHINA, AS THE STR MAY REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS. THIS COULD CAUSE TRACK SPEEDS TO SLOW BETWEEN
TAU 12 AND 36 AND THE STORM TO MOVE FURTHER WEST BEFORE RECURVING.
THE ECMWF TRACK FORECAST HAS FALLEN IN LINE WITH THE BULK OF THE
MUTLI-MODEL CONSENSUS WHILE THE GFS FORECAST CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT
THE MOST WESTWARD RECURVING TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST IS LAID BETWEEN
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND ECMWF/GFS IN THE EARLY TAUS AND IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN AND TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS, DUE TO A KNOWN
HISTORICAL BIAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN IN JAPAN, IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE RECURVE POINT.//
NNNN

TXPQ23 KNES 281416
TCSWNP

A. 14W (KONG-REY)

B. 28/1332Z

C. 23.1N

D. 122.7E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...1202Z SSMIS DATA WAS HELPFUL IN FIXING THE CENTER AND THE
37GHZ DATA SHOWED A COMPLETELY EXPOSED CENTER WITH CONVECTION SHEARED
TO ITS SOUTH. AT 1332Z CENTER IS MORE THAN 1/3 DEGREE INTO THE DEEP
CONVECTION AS SEEN IN MTSAT LWIR IMAGERY. THIS RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.5
USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. MET AND PT ARE ALSO 3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

28/1202Z 22.9N 122.7E SSMIS


...TURK
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Kong-rey (14W) (Nando, PAGASA)

#45 Postby whetherornot » Wed Aug 28, 2013 5:29 pm

Recurve? Pretty obvious that the center now lies over Chengong on TW East coast without recurve and has done so for many hours. How can the models all be so spectacularly wrong? Do they really account properly for mountain interaction?
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Kong-rey (14W) (Nando, PAGASA)

#46 Postby vrif » Wed Aug 28, 2013 7:53 pm

Downgraded to TS.

WTPQ20 RJTD 290000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1315 KONG-REY (1315) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290000UTC 25.2N 122.5E GOOD
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM SOUTH 90NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 300000UTC 28.5N 123.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 310000UTC 32.1N 128.3E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 010000UTC 37.6N 138.9E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Kong-rey (14W) (Nando, PAGASA)

#47 Postby phwxenthusiast » Wed Aug 28, 2013 8:13 pm

whetherornot wrote:Recurve? Pretty obvious that the center now lies over Chengong on TW East coast without recurve and has done so for many hours. How can the models all be so spectacularly wrong? Do they really account properly for mountain interaction?


i think you're looking at the wrong place... convection is now well displaced; the center of circulation is actually moving into the East China Sea already... this thing is dying really quickly it seems...
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Kong-rey (14W) (Nando, PAGASA)

#48 Postby tonypace » Wed Aug 28, 2013 9:16 pm

Center of circulation is one thing but all of the clouds are sitting over Taiwan and rain is building up fast. Given that the motion of the actual mass of clouds has little relation to what was predicted by the models, I think it's a fair call that they were substantially wrong. I saw a paper about how the mountains in Taiwan can cause the development of a second strong low south and to the west of the previous system - usually in the mountains between Tainan and Miaoli. It was a factor in the flooding caused by Mindulle, Morakot and the 8/8 storm. But none of the models or even the weather forecasters here seem to have incorporated it into their predictions.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Kong-rey (14W) (Nando, PAGASA)

#49 Postby tonypace » Wed Aug 28, 2013 9:19 pm

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Kong-rey (14W) (Nando, PAGASA)

#50 Postby whetherornot » Thu Aug 29, 2013 12:46 am

Fascinating paper, thanks. Most insightful as to what has been happening here in South TW today, which is disproportionate to a diminishing TS with a center already N of us, especially with the similar-to-Mindulle low in the TW Strait. In fairness to CWB they did issue a timely and correct Extremely Torrential Rain warning so maybe they have factored in the secondary low/mountain effect but when people are in harm's way and the tools that exist to predict that harm do not appear to take into account all the known factors, they need to be changed, especially when the effects are repeated.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Kong-rey (14W) (Nando, PAGASA)

#51 Postby Amoygal » Thu Aug 29, 2013 1:00 am

A LOT of rain falling in southern Taiwan today. Well over 400 mm today in some counties in the south, and over 600 in some mountainous areas. Work has been called off for the afternoon in several southern cities/counties.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Kong-rey (14W) (Nando, PAGASA)

#52 Postby R o x » Thu Aug 29, 2013 1:04 am

... Pingtung County currently topping the list with 618mm thusfar ... practically no wind and I'm still in the blue but it is extremely torrential at the moment ...


Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Kong-rey (14W) (Nando, PAGASA)

#53 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Aug 29, 2013 1:54 am

whetherornot wrote:Recurve? Pretty obvious that the center now lies over Chengong on TW East coast without recurve and has done so for many hours. How can the models all be so spectacularly wrong? Do they really account properly for mountain interaction?


the central circulation(LCC) of Kong-rey never approached the coast of Taiwan , the strong convection did...
Convection is not the basis for the position of a TC... the basis for the central position is the low level circulation.
And with Kong-rey, the convection is being displaced (by the northeasterly wind shear) to the south west of the LLC.

as of now.. KONG-REY is fully naked
Image


_________
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Kong-rey (14W) (Nando, PAGASA)

#54 Postby phwxenthusiast » Thu Aug 29, 2013 6:35 am

whetherornot wrote:Fascinating paper, thanks. Most insightful as to what has been happening here in South TW today, which is disproportionate to a diminishing TS with a center already N of us, especially with the similar-to-Mindulle low in the TW Strait. In fairness to CWB they did issue a timely and correct Extremely Torrential Rain warning so maybe they have factored in the secondary low/mountain effect but when people are in harm's way and the tools that exist to predict that harm do not appear to take into account all the known factors, they need to be changed, especially when the effects are repeated.


depends on which model you look at... GFS, COAMPS, HWRF, and to some extent the CMC, all indicated the same rainfall distribution in Taiwan that we're seeing right now... maybe you're just looking at the model tracks (low centers) and not the precipitation maps 'cause they did show the threat of heavy rain in Taiwan... :wink:
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Kong-rey (14W) (Nando, PAGASA)

#55 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Thu Aug 29, 2013 7:11 am

The images coming out of Taiwan from the massive amount of rainfall are surprising. Up to 765mm now recorded in just 24hrs in parts of Southern Taiwan!!!

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Kong-rey (14W) (Nando, PAGASA)

#56 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Aug 29, 2013 8:04 am

Throwback Thursday...
This rain event in Taiwan reminds me of TS Ketsana's rampage in Manila.
Not a direct hit for the our capital but the convection, the rain , the flood...WOW!!!(World Of Water)

look at this loop of Ketsana(2009)

GFS 8/28/13 - 12z run precip total 24 hrs :darrow:
Image

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Kong-rey (14W) (Nando, PAGASA)

#57 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 29, 2013 10:32 am

WDPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (KONG-REY) WARNING
NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE (EIR) IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED FURTHER FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AND HAS NOW MOVED INLAND INTO EASTERN CHINA. THE LLCC HAS
BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON EIR ANIMATION; HENCE, THE INITIAL
POSITION WAS EXTRAPOLATED, WITH POOR CONFIDENCE, FROM A BROAD LOW
LEVEL FEATURE ON A 290934Z SSMI/S MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS WAS AVERAGED FROM THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
BE SHEARED FROM THE RIDGE THAT IS RECEDING EASTWARD WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES (20-25 KNOTS). THE CYCLONE IS NOW
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW REFLECTION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS KONG-REY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AS A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS POISED TO
WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO RECURVE AND ACCELERATE. AS TS
14W GETS EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, IT WILL COMMENCE
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER TAU 12, BECOMING A COLD CORE LOW BY
TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 12 DUE TO
INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERLIES. TS 14W WILL THEN MAKE
LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF SASEBO, KYUSHU, JAPAN AFTER TAU 36. AFTER TAU
48, THE WEAKENED REMNANT LOW WILL BRIEFLY TRANSIT THE SEA OF JAPAN
THEN CROSS THE NORTHERN TIP OF HONSHU AND EXIT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
PACIFIC BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT DURING
THE INITIAL 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST BUT BECOME MORE COHESIVE WITH
BRINGING THE VORTEX OVER NORTHWESTERN JAPAN AFTERWARDS. THERE IS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT TS 14W WILL DISSIPATE OVER WATER BEFORE
REACHING KYUSHU DUE TO THE INCREASING VWS. IN VIEW OF THE VARIABILITY
IN THE MODEL FORECAST SOLUTIONS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF PREMATURE
DISSIPATION, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. //
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Kong-rey (14W) (Nando, PAGASA)

#58 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Fri Aug 30, 2013 4:59 am

I am very surprised this is not the top subject today, instead a couple of blobs over the atlantic are taking the crown


Three deaths have now been reported in Taiwan following 865mm (about 30inches in 48hrs!) of rainfall accumulating in south western Taiwan.

In western Japan Kong-rey is combining with a cold front out of China and is surging in a intense amount of moisture for western Japan. Several landslides already reported in Kyushu and evacuations are underway around Fukuoka.

Those blobs are important though.. hehe
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