ATL: FERNAND - Renmants - Discussion

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ATL: FERNAND - Renmants - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 24, 2013 7:19 am

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201308241214
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2013, DB, O, 2013082412, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952013
AL, 95, 2013082412, , BEST, 0, 170N, 893W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0


Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this wave/pouch.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=115379&hilit=&start=0
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#2 Postby ninel conde » Sat Aug 24, 2013 7:41 am

extreme south BOC is favorable. if it can get over enough water another barry is possible.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#3 Postby Sanibel » Sat Aug 24, 2013 9:24 am

To me the center looks like it is over land.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#4 Postby wxman57 » Sat Aug 24, 2013 9:29 am

Sanibel wrote:To me the center looks like it is over land.


Yes, the whole system is over land.
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#5 Postby hurricanekid416 » Sat Aug 24, 2013 9:32 am

It's not a threat to develop until it emerges in to the boc
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#6 Postby Portastorm » Sat Aug 24, 2013 10:03 am

Well I'll be darned ... the stinkin' NAM got it right! Where's ROCK? He'll get a kick out of this. Two days ago he posted some NAM runs which showed a tropical system developing but it started on land. We all kind of chuckled and thought "yep, that's the NAM for ya." :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#7 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 24, 2013 10:07 am

:lol: every blind squirrel finds a nut....the NAVGEM has also showed this is various degrees of intensity for many runs. not going to have much water to work with.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#8 Postby Portastorm » Sat Aug 24, 2013 10:10 am

ROCK wrote::lol: every blind squirrel finds a nut....the NAVGEM has also showed this is various degrees of intensity for many runs. not going to have much water to work with.


Yep, true. Too bad we couldn't somehow coax this thing northwestward into Texas to combine with the Northern Gulf trough and give us some ample rains.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 24, 2013 10:41 am

Recon for Sunday afternoon if needed.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 24 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-084 CORRECTION (TCPOD NUMBER)

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. BAY OF CAMPECHE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 25/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 25/1715Z
D. 20.0N 95.5W
E. 25/1900Z TO 26/0000Z
F. SFC TO 5,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#10 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Aug 24, 2013 11:22 am

I think this will be the next depression, track between Veracruz and Tampico

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#11 Postby Ntxw » Sat Aug 24, 2013 11:39 am

ROCK wrote::lol: every blind squirrel finds a nut....the NAVGEM has also showed this is various degrees of intensity for many runs. not going to have much water to work with.


You mean the waters that have produced flimsies? :lol: When the oceans doesn't work get your act together over the Yucatan! It might as well be semi ocean there anyway.

Can Erin ever say it looked this good? :lol:

Image
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#12 Postby Hammy » Sat Aug 24, 2013 11:59 am

With the level of organization, how likely is it that an upgrade is made as soon as the center reaches water? It looks far better than Barry did over land.
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#13 Postby Alyono » Sat Aug 24, 2013 12:09 pm

Looks good... just that it is FAR SW

No guarantee this moves over the water given how far south it is
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#14 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sat Aug 24, 2013 12:10 pm

Behold, the almighty Land-vest. :lol:

But seriously, it looks pretty good. If it can hold together by the time it reaches water I think it can really take off. A lot of moisture and shear is pretty low. Very interesting system.
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#15 Postby hurricanekid416 » Sat Aug 24, 2013 12:30 pm

It looks like it's moving wnw and I think it'll end up in the boc but has a depression ever been designated over land
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#16 Postby Extratropical94 » Sat Aug 24, 2013 12:39 pm

Code Orange

A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO...BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE WHEN THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM GETS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#17 Postby Sanibel » Sat Aug 24, 2013 12:45 pm

I'd bet my bippy on this one if it gets back over water.
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#18 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sat Aug 24, 2013 1:12 pm

From what I'm seeing, looks like a pretty good chance this makes it back over water tonight. I would say about a 60% chance this becomes a TC at some point.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#19 Postby beoumont » Sat Aug 24, 2013 1:14 pm

Ntxw wrote:
ROCK wrote::lol: every blind squirrel finds a nut....the NAVGEM has also showed this is various degrees of intensity for many runs. not going to have much water to work with.


You mean the waters that have produced flimsies? :lol: When the oceans doesn't work get your act together over the Yucatan! It might as well be semi ocean there anyway.

Can Erin ever say it looked this good? :lol:

Image


95L travels thousands of miles, nearly a dozen days, and does nothing. Then now, while over land it decides it is time to (try to) develop. "What a revolting development this is!"
Last edited by beoumont on Sat Aug 24, 2013 1:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#20 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 24, 2013 1:15 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 24 2013

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE S-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AS OF 15 UTC...EXTENDING FROM
24N90W TO 12N91W. ADDITIONALLY THERE IS A 1010 MB LOW ANALYZED
ON THE WAVE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN YUCATAN NEAR 18N91W. THIS WAVE
AND LOW MAY BE UPGRADED TO A SPECIAL FEATURE ON SUBSEQUENT
ISSUANCES OF THE TWD...PENDING INCREASES IN THE GENESIS
PROBABILITIES WITHIN THE GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE ON SSMI IMAGERY THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FOCUSED NEAR THE LOW PRES AREA OVER
BELIZE...YUCATAN AND EXTREME NORTHERN GUATEMALA.
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