ATL: FERNAND - Renmants - Discussion

[tailgater]

What's interesting is that, the wave that produced this system also will likely produce a storm in the Epac and very close to LLc just south of Galveston Tx.

Season seems to be cranking up.

Back to 95L, sure looks like a WNW movement at a decent clip, steering setup pretty clear.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8dlm2.GIF

[cycloneye]

Plane this afternoon or an ASCAT pass will confirm if 95L is a TD or a TS.

[CrazyC83]

We might even have Fernand right away given that data since that is very close to TS strength...

[weatherwindow]

As of 1115EDT, based on low cloud motion and extrapolation, making the incipient LLC at ~19.8N 94.8W...if my eyeballing is correct, it is gaining a bit of latitude vis-a-vis the 12Z atcf initialization. This motion appears, as Aloyno suggested, to be at least 295deg, perhaps as much as 300deg. This could provide it with additional time over water prior to landfall. Obviously, this assumes my assessment of the location, given the cloud cover, is correct....Grtz from KW, Rich

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html


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[RL3AO]

The cloud patterns show a very very well pronounced circulation in the mid levels. Weather it is at the surface, well that is TBD.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Ill top this one out at 65-70mph at landfall Monday at 4pm. Think we'll see a 35/40kt Fernand at 5pm.

If I had to guess based on satellite alone, I'd call this a 70mph TS

[RL3AO]

Not a dvorak expert, but pick your curved band.

[Hurricaneman]

This could be easily be a mid grade tropical storm when recon gets there based on organization trends and wouldn't rule out a hurricane by the time of landfall

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[HurricaneDREW92]

This could be easily be a mid grade tropical storm when recon gets there based on organization trends and wouldn't rule out a hurricane by the time of landfall

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Same thinking here.

[tropicwatch]

Winds continue to increase near Veracruz
Station SACV4 - SACRIFICE ISLAND, MEXICO
August 25, 2013 11:00 am CDT
Location: 19.174N 96.093W or 0 nautical miles N of search location of 19.174N 96.093W.
Wind Direction: NNW (340°)
Wind Speed: 33 knots
Wind Gust: 37 knots
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.88 in (1011.8 mb)

[SouthDadeFish]

If recon finds a closed circulation this afternoon, it is likely this will be directly upgraded to Fernand, in my opinion. With convection this vigorous, the chances of finding winds of at least 35 knots is pretty good...

[Hurricaneman]

Winds continue to increase near Veracruz
Station SACV4 - SACRIFICE ISLAND, MEXICO
August 25, 2013 11:00 am CDT
Location: 19.174N 96.093W or 0 nautical miles N of search location of 19.174N 96.093W.
Wind Direction: NNW (340°)
Wind Speed: 33 knots
Wind Gust: 37 knots
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.88 in (1011.8 mb)

Its clearly a tropical storm right now if this is correct

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks rather impressive to me:

[Alyono]

NHC needs to upgrade this. No reaosn to wait for the plane when we have data indicating a likely TS

[floridasun78]

so we get first hurr plus first hurr make land fall this season kickoff peak part season of hurr season

[RL3AO]

Looks rather impressive to me:

[img ]http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/821/6tvp.jpg[/img]

Convection is wrapping quite impressively. Makes me wonder if those winds are a little higher in the mid-level then they appear.

[tailgater]

I must be missing something, but I can't see this not making landfall before one or 2 am tonite it has already made it halfway across the BOC and it didn't get offshore before, what 8pm last nite.

[SouthDadeFish]

Recent microwave pass:

[NDG]

Radar & satellite along with surface reports show that it has a closed circulation, by the time recon gets there I think it will be upgraded straight to TS Fernand.

[SouthDadeFish]

I hope the residents in Mexico are ready for the possibility of a strong TS with heavy rains on minimal warning time.