ATL: FERNAND - Renmants - Discussion

[Sanibel]

Reconnaisance might find higher winds there than expected.

[Hurricaneman]

Based on radar presentation I wouldnt be surprised if we have a 65mph storm when recon gets there

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[RL3AO]

Quick guess is a T3.0 on visible.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Wouldn't be surprised if recon found a 40-45 kt tropical storm. The southeast quadrant is typically the strongest with storms in the Bay of Campeche, and we know the system is producing at least 35 knots in its southwest quadrant.

[NDG]

Well, this is cool, wundermap now incorporates radar image from MX.

Click on the link below.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap?l ... ms=0&pix=0

[galaxy401]

Recon has descended. Let's see how strong this storm really is.

[wxman57]

Nice shot from AMSUB satellite. Kind of looks like an eyewall forming.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... W.90pc.jpg

[NDG]

Unflagged 52 knots surface winds

[Aric Dunn]

not at all surprised with what recon is finding.

[CrazyC83]

Given the data, I would say at least 45 kt right now.

[Dave]

Unflagged 52 knots surface winds

Unflagged 59 surface also

[NDG]

Lowest pressure so far approximately 1004mb

[Hurricaneman]

Unflagged 52 knots surface winds

Unflagged 59 surface also

so this may be 70mph at 8pm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[CrazyC83]

Unflagged 52 knots surface winds

Unflagged 59 surface also

so this may be 70mph at 8pm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Not likely that high given the rain rates in those measurements.

[lester]

Unflagged 52 knots surface winds

Unflagged 59 surface also

so this may be 70mph at 8pm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

doubtful, that was rain-contaminated.

[NDG]

Unflagged 52 knots surface winds

Unflagged 59 surface also

You are right, I missed that one

[brunota2003]

The 59 knots has a rain rate of 45 mm...rain inflated big time!!! There was a 44 knot one that had a rain rate of 4 mm, so 45 knots looks more likely at the moment.

[Aric Dunn]

Nice shot from AMSUB satellite. Kind of looks like an eyewall forming.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... W.90pc.jpg

yeah radar also showing what may be the beginning of a eyewall feature.

[NDG]

Unflagged 59 surface also

so this may be 70mph at 8pm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

doubtful, that was rain-contaminated.

But the 52 knot estimate was not rain contaminated.

[RL3AO]

Guys...will you please ignore SFMR. Look at the flight level winds. They will give you better and more consistent data.