ATL: FERNAND - Renmants - Discussion

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weatherwindow
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Re: Re:

#281 Postby weatherwindow » Sun Aug 25, 2013 8:29 pm

ozonepete wrote:
NDG wrote::uarrow: I think they go by cm or mm not inches when they report rainfall totals.


Locally yes, but this is through an NWS application which converts it to inches (see column header). Also there are very high mountains just west of the city so there definitely could be orographic lift going on. Ok, I'll keep looking..


Good evening, Pete...perhaps, that total is not as outlandish as it first appears...the site averaged a bit under 3in/hr for six hours...obviously torrential but conceivable given that the long axis of the main feeder band set up over coastal Veracruz state. Running roughly wnw to ese, that relatively stationary band set up early this afternoon, training thunderstorms along the axis with the individual storms moving ese at 25-30kts. If that scenario verifies, I believe it could account for the ~18inches of accum rainfall. Does that sound reasonable to you, Pete?....Grtz from KW, Rich
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#282 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 25, 2013 8:36 pm

All I know is that the streets of downtown Veracruz are like rivers tonight, not one car seen on the streets.

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#283 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 25, 2013 8:42 pm

Some cars now driving on the streets, they look like boats.

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Re: Oh look, a baby burger

#284 Postby jinftl » Sun Aug 25, 2013 8:45 pm

Almost as cliche as jaded posts about how there is nothing to post about? Just sayin....

Folks in Vera Cruz aren't thinking that right now with the flooded streets and winds over 50mph.

Cyclenall wrote:I stopped watching the tropics for about 4+ days and its been a week since a full check and a short-lived TS name taker comes right when I check in. I was expecting nothing but this isn't that large of a step from that.

CrazyC83 wrote:What are the chances of this pulling a Humberto (2007)?

2%.

lester wrote:With it being very close to land...almost no chance.

Your right for the wrong reasons, Humberto was close to land when it was exploding but I thought the overall structure of him 10 hours before landfall was amazing to begin with so he was set properly for the blow-out.

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:What are the chances of this pulling a Humberto (2007)?

It only has a few more hours before landfall. I maintain that we'll get a moderate tropical storm out of this. 50-60 mph.

Perhaps if it had moved a little slower over the past 24 hours, it would've approached hurricane intensity.

There's that line again, getting closer to becoming a weather ciche. Most of the time its "would be a hurricane."
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#285 Postby Hammy » Sun Aug 25, 2013 8:55 pm

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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#286 Postby ozonepete » Sun Aug 25, 2013 9:07 pm

jinftl wrote:Is it centimeters of rain and not inches - labeled incorrectly? That would be a bit more reasonable - still a deluge of a foot of rain if so

ozonepete wrote:Ok, it's definitely not legit since the 9PM EDT report shows 35 inches, lol.


Definitely not centimeters. No stations in any country I know of use them. Most outside the U.S. that don't use inches use millimeters.
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#287 Postby Sanibel » Sun Aug 25, 2013 9:12 pm

Big burst. Just needed a little more time over water.
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#288 Postby ozonepete » Sun Aug 25, 2013 9:13 pm

supercane wrote:Here are the raw METARs as asked for, ozonepete:

MMVR 260057Z RTD 27025G35KT 3/4SM RA SCT008 BKN010CB OVC070 24/24 A2973 RMK 63505 8/97/
MMVR 260006Z 28030G40KT 1/2SM RA HZ BKN008CB OVC070 24/24 A2975 RMK 8/37/ VRBL CONDS
MMVR 252346Z 33020G30KT 1/2SM RA HZ BKN008CB OVC070 24/23 A2975 RMK SLP074 57013 981 61715 8/37/ VRBL CONDS

Source: NCAR-RAP Real-Time Weather Data found at http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/


Thanks, super! I forgot about RAP metars. Well that 61715 in the last metar says past 6 hours precip total is 17.15 inches. Still hard to believe. I think the rain gauge is broken, personally, but I do think they're getting tremendous rains anyway. Look at NDG's posted webcam images. Clearly a ton of rain. And it is still really torrential there right now.
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#289 Postby Fyzn94 » Sun Aug 25, 2013 9:22 pm

If this were moving as slow as Lorenzo of '07, I bet it would be something ferocious.
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#290 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Aug 25, 2013 9:25 pm

Is it inland now?
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#291 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 25, 2013 9:27 pm

Wx station at Veracruz Harbor now reporting a pressure of 1002mb with winds dying down, Fernand is close to making landfall.

Conditions at VERV4 as of
(9:00 pm CDT on 08/25/2013)
0200 GMT on 08/26/2013:

Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 20 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 11.1 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 13.0 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.60 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.12 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.8 °F
Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 11.7 kts
Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 11.7 kts
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#292 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 25, 2013 9:29 pm

Last radar I saw had the center close to landfall. Pressure looks to be 1000mb based on that reading and wind.
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#293 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 25, 2013 9:29 pm

Funny...This thing has basically been over land and is the best looking system we have had all year...Forget MDR, the southern BOC has been a primo spot for the past few seasons...Wow, is that rain or surge water in the streets?
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#294 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Aug 25, 2013 9:30 pm

Would've been the first hurricane given another 12 hours over water.

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#295 Postby Hammy » Sun Aug 25, 2013 9:36 pm

looks like it could be 60mph if not higher given the radar presentation and the fact that much of the stronger wind is likely still over water.
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#296 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 25, 2013 9:39 pm

Based on those surface obs in the discussion being 10-min sustained, I would have gone 55 kt for current intensity (they support a 50 kt intensity + likely stronger winds over water).
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#297 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Sun Aug 25, 2013 9:46 pm

I wonder how the people reacted with such short warning with this system.
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#298 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sun Aug 25, 2013 9:48 pm

This could have been Humberto #2 with 12 more hours over water:

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A truly incredible rate of organization and intensification from genesis to landfall.
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#299 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sun Aug 25, 2013 9:51 pm

Wow. Check out the 85 GHz PCT:

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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#300 Postby hurricaneCW » Sun Aug 25, 2013 9:51 pm

This could have really been a formidable system if it had a full day over water, but as is often in the BOC, there's never enough time. This is why I'm not of fan of systems in the BOC, GOM, or Western Caribbean because they never have enough time over water to develop but those storms that develop further east and then come into those areas are always interesting.
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