ATL: FERNAND - Renmants - Discussion

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brunota2003
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#301 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Aug 25, 2013 9:53 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Based on those surface obs in the discussion being 10-min sustained, I would have gone 55 kt for current intensity (they support a 50 kt intensity + likely stronger winds over water).

Well, gusts of 61 to 63 knots represent winds of about 55 to 57 mph or so (using the gusts are 1.3 times higher than 1-minute sustained winds)...so 50 knots for sustained winds do seem appropriate in this case.
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Re: Re:

#302 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 25, 2013 9:54 pm

brunota2003 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Based on those surface obs in the discussion being 10-min sustained, I would have gone 55 kt for current intensity (they support a 50 kt intensity + likely stronger winds over water).

Well, gusts of 61 to 63 knots represent winds of about 55 to 57 mph or so (using the gusts are 1.3 times higher than 1-minute sustained winds)...so 50 knots for sustained winds do seem appropriate in this case.


Those winds also are on the southern side of the center, not the northern side where the strongest winds are expected to be.
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#303 Postby beoumont » Sun Aug 25, 2013 9:59 pm

Hurricane Alexis wrote:I wonder how the people reacted with such short warning with this system.


Maybe bought an extra six pack of cerveza..

Image
Last edited by beoumont on Sun Aug 25, 2013 10:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#304 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Aug 25, 2013 10:21 pm

Best-looking tropical cyclone in the Atlantic so far this year. Fernand and Andrea looks better than those tropical storms that formed in the East Atlantic earlier this season, IMO.
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#305 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 25, 2013 11:11 pm

No sign of landfall yet...trying to hug the coast on a northerly wobble...
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#306 Postby FireRat » Sun Aug 25, 2013 11:38 pm

Just by looking at the imagery above :uarrow:
I'm afraid there's gonna be some nasty flash floods in that part of Mexico overnight into tomorrow! Talk about a last-minute storm.
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#307 Postby BigB0882 » Sun Aug 25, 2013 11:50 pm

Did any models forecast this storm?
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#308 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 26, 2013 12:01 am

Image

Landfall.
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Re:

#309 Postby bahamaswx » Mon Aug 26, 2013 12:05 am

BigB0882 wrote:Did any models forecast this storm?


NAM was the first IIRC
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#310 Postby Cyclenall » Mon Aug 26, 2013 12:15 am

Its definitely the best looking and best in general Atlantic storm this year, very explosive. I take back the Humberto thing, this does indeed look like him and yes, the cliche would be correctly used here (12 more hours til 'cane, etc.). This thing went from a amorphous blob of convection to something that looked to pop an eye in a perfect swirl of convection within 6 hours...stunning. This spot in the basin can support category 5's without trouble despite how close land is.
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#311 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 26, 2013 12:23 am

How high to set the peak intensity at? Lots of uncertainty.
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#312 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 26, 2013 12:28 am

UPDATE: Landfall made N of Veracruz

000
WTNT61 KNHC 260526
TCUAT1

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
1225 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

...CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FERNAND MAKES LANDFALL TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO...

DATA FROM THE ALVARADO MEXICO RADAR INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM FERNAND MADE LANDFALL ON THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
ABOUT 25 MILES...40 KM NNW OF VERACRUZ AT 1145 PM CDT...0445 UTC.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 50
MPH...85 KM/H.

SUMMARY OF 1145 PM CDT...0445 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 96.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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#313 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 26, 2013 12:31 am

Assessing a peak intensity is difficult. My best guess for landfall intensity is 55 kt (pressure 1000mb), based on a combination of Recon (supported 45 kt around 2200Z), the surface obs (supported at least 45-50 kt around 0200Z) and the significant improvement in radar signature since then. A case could be made for even higher, but don't want to go too far up without additional proof.

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Last edited by CrazyC83 on Mon Aug 26, 2013 12:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#314 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Aug 26, 2013 12:32 am

CrazyC83 wrote:How high to set the peak intensity at? Lots of uncertainty.


What uncertainty? The only arguement that could possibly be made is that a stronger sustained wind could have come down from 850 mb for a short period of time. I wouldn't be surprised if winds of 60-65 mph were found upon landfall and shortly before at that level. The surface intensity was pretty straightforward in my opinion.
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Re: Re:

#315 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 26, 2013 12:34 am

JonathanBelles wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:How high to set the peak intensity at? Lots of uncertainty.


What uncertainty? The only arguement that could possibly be made is that a stronger sustained wind could have come down from 850 mb for a short period of time. I wouldn't be surprised if winds of 60-65 mph were found upon landfall and shortly before at that level. The surface intensity was pretty straightforward in my opinion.


Uncertainty due to the fact that radar improved in the final 4-6 hours, yet while some surface data is available, there was no Recon at landfall.
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#316 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Aug 26, 2013 12:36 am

The beam of the radar was seeing a higher level in the storm at landfall compared to when recon was in the storm. I would expect some better returns due to that effect and some frictional convergence.
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Re:

#317 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 26, 2013 12:39 am

JonathanBelles wrote:The beam of the radar was seeing a higher level in the storm at landfall compared to when recon was in the storm. I would expect some better returns due to that effect and some frictional convergence.


It's a sparsely populated area as well, and not sure if there are any stations since the center moved in well away from Veracruz.
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#318 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Aug 26, 2013 6:13 am

Image
the most awesome system so far for the Atlantic IMO.
Last edited by mrbagyo on Mon Aug 26, 2013 11:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#319 Postby Syx6sic » Mon Aug 26, 2013 7:12 am

hard to tell by that loop going fast but looks like it might try to wobble back over the water looks like its going north with alittle east wobble here and there but could be me just half way asleep though
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#320 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 26, 2013 7:45 am

Still a TS.

AL, 06, 2013082612, , BEST, 0, 201N, 973W, 40, 1006, TS
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