EPAC: INVEST 95E

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep952013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
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201308250125
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
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INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 95, 2013, DB, O, 2013082500, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP952013
EP, 95, 2013082400, , BEST, 0, 99N, 886W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2013082406, , BEST, 0, 100N, 897W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2013082412, , BEST, 0, 102N, 908W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2013082418, , BEST, 0, 104N, 919W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2013082500, , BEST, 0, 105N, 930W, 20, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 80, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S


Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=115491&p=2334345#p2334345

Let's see if this system turns as the strongest on this basin in 2013.

[hurricanes1234]

This is the one the models bring to hurricane strength once it reaches the open waters. Will be Juliette if it forms, possibly Hurricane Juliette. Any new information regarding the models?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

First model plots.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0126 UTC SUN AUG 25 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP952013) 20130825 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130825 0000 130825 1200 130826 0000 130826 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.5N 93.0W 11.5N 94.3W 12.3N 95.6W 13.2N 97.0W
BAMD 10.5N 93.0W 11.0N 94.5W 11.4N 96.1W 11.8N 97.7W
BAMM 10.5N 93.0W 11.3N 94.1W 12.0N 95.4W 12.7N 96.9W
LBAR 10.5N 93.0W 11.1N 95.1W 11.7N 97.7W 12.4N 100.4W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 40KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130827 0000 130828 0000 130829 0000 130830 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.1N 98.6W 16.2N 102.8W 18.9N 108.2W 21.9N 114.3W
BAMD 12.3N 99.2W 13.4N 102.5W 14.7N 106.4W 16.9N 110.1W
BAMM 13.5N 98.6W 15.5N 102.7W 18.1N 107.8W 21.0N 113.6W
LBAR 13.4N 103.6W 15.8N 109.9W 19.1N 115.7W 20.4N 116.9W
SHIP 52KTS 70KTS 73KTS 78KTS
DSHP 52KTS 70KTS 73KTS 78KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.5N LONCUR = 93.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 10.2N LONM12 = 90.8W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 9.9N LONM24 = 88.6W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[hurricanes1234]

The SHIPS brings this to 78 knots by the end of the period. Might end up being like Henriette when it peaked at 90 mph initially.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

This is the one the models bring to hurricane strength once it reaches the open waters. Will be Juliette if it forms, possibly Hurricane Juliette. Any new information regarding the models?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Nothing new that is interesting.

[cycloneye]

5 AM PDT.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO NEAR ACAPULCO ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[cycloneye]

40%-80%

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY MIDWEEK.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

EP, 95, 2013082518, , BEST, 0, 140N, 957W, 25, 1007, DB

[hurricanes1234]

Is this interacting with land? Looks quite close to it in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

40% / 90%

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO JUST WEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[Yellow Evan]

Is this interacting with land? Looks quite close to it in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Not really. These types of systems that go parallel, land is not as much of an issue. It could even spin up in the GOT for the same reason why Fernand is spinning up in the BOC, topography.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

Most of the models peak this as a weak to moderate tropical storm. They might lower their forecasts even further if this area does not develop soon enough, because they are showing it peaking in approximately 72 hours.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON AUG 26 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTEND FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL MEXICO SOUTHWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY MIDWEEK. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND INTERESTS
IN THAT AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER BROWN

[Extratropical94]

Code Red

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
MEXICAN COASTLINE IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AS LONG AS THE SYSTEM
REMAINS OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS. AFTER THAT
TIME...COOLER WATERS ARE LIKELY TO INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND INTERESTS
IN THAT AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[hurricanes1234]

Strangely, this system reminds me of Hilary 2011 when it was a tropical storm. It has the same blob of convection and it is in a fairly similar position to Hilary when it was beginning to rapidly intensify. Where exactly is it forecast to hit cooler waters?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Most of the models peak this as a weak to moderate tropical storm. They might lower their forecasts even further if this area does not develop soon enough, because they are showing it peaking in approximately 72 hours.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Wow...What a contrast, a few days ago the models where predicting a Major cat 3/4 hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

Strangely, this system reminds me of Hilary 2011 when it was a tropical storm. It has the same blob of convection and it is in a fairly similar position to Hilary when it was beginning to rapidly intensify. Where exactly is it forecast to hit cooler waters?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It's not strange. It's a bit like Hilary but is moving faster and not likely to turn west like Hilary. It actually is a bit like some early season EPAC storm's IMO.

[hurricanes1234]

We might see a weak tropical storm out of this, maybe 65 mph for the most. However, hurricane strength is becoming less and less likely every run. My question is, why did all of the model runs predict a major hurricane just a couple days ago? I am very new to tropical cyclone tracking, so this post is not in any way an official opinion.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

We might see a weak tropical storm out of this, maybe 65 mph for the most. However, hurricane strength is becoming less and less likely every run. My question is, why did all of the model runs predict a major hurricane just a couple days ago? I am very new to tropical cyclone tracking, so this post is not in any way an official opinion.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well, IIRC they were predicting the storm to move more slowly and track over warmer waters.

[hurricanes1234]

We might see a weak tropical storm out of this, maybe 65 mph for the most. However, hurricane strength is becoming less and less likely every run. My question is, why did all of the model runs predict a major hurricane just a couple days ago? I am very new to tropical cyclone tracking, so this post is not in any way an official opinion.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well, IIRC they were predicting the storm to move more slowly and track over warmer waters.

What do you think this will peak as? A tropical storm? A hurricane?