ATL: FERNAND - Advisories

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2013

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 95.5W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 95.5W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 95.1W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.9N 96.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.4N 97.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.1N 99.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 95.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF GULF COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 95.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER SHOULD CROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING
AREA BY EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE
LANDFALL...AND WEAKENING WILL BEGIN AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER VERACRUZ...HIDALGO...NORTHERN PUEBLA...SOUTHERN
TAMAULIPAS ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN A FEW HOURS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013

ANIMATION OF HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR
OBSERVATIONS FROM ALVARADO MEXICO...AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA FROM
VERACRUZ AND CAOATZACOALCOS MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED
ENOUGH CIRCULATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH A
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE WAS DELAYED DUE TO MECHANICAL ISSUES...BUT IS NOW EN ROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE TO GET A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY.
THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION AND STRENGTHENING TO A
TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.
WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTERWARDS AS THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH
THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN MEXICO AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...OR SOONER.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE...270/10....IS ALSO SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL CAUSE A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE GUIDANCE
DOES SHOW SOME SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED BUT IT IS STILL LIKELY THAT
THE CENTER WILL REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS NOT FAR FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 19.5N 95.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 19.9N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 20.4N 97.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 27/0600Z 21.1N 99.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
48H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
645 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013


...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX
HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM FERNAND...

AROUND 630 PM CDT...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS IN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAD INCREASED TO AT LEAST 45 MPH...
75 KM/H...MAKING THE SYSTEM TROPICAL STORM FERNAND (PRONOUNCED
FAIR-NAHN).

A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 700 PM CDT...2300
UTC...TO INCREASE THE 12-HOUR INTENSITY TO 50 KT AND TO ADJUST THE
FORECAST SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY. NO CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO THE CURRENT
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF 630 PM CDT...2230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 95.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM E OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FERNAND SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
600 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM FERNAND OVER THE
WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 95.8W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM E OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO TAMPICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FERNAND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.8 WEST. FERNAND IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER SHOULD CROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING
AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE FERNAND MAKES LANDFALL. WEAKENING WILL BEGIN AFTER THE
CENTER MOVES INLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED IN LIEU OF THE SCHEDULED
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 700 PM CDT.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM FERNAND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 4 TO 8
INCHES OF RAIN OVER VERACRUZ...HIDALGO...NORTHERN PUEBLA...SOUTHERN
TAMAULIPAS...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN A FEW HOURS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



TROPICAL STORM FERNAND SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
600 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIX THIS LATE AFTERNOON FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SFMR
SURFACE WINDS THAT SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 40
KT...WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH THE MEASURED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
1003 MB. AS A RESULT...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM FERNAND. THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING RIGHT UP UNTIL FERNAND
MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ
IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE UPDATED OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST.

THE INITIAL LOCATION WAS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD BY ABOUT 30 NMI BASED ON
THE RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN
UNCERTAIN 280/08 KT...BASED MAINLY ON MODEL GUIDANCE. OTHER THAN A
SLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE FORECAST TRACK...PRIMARILY DUE
TO THE MORE SOUTHWARD INITIAL POSITION...THERE REMAINS NO CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF FERNAND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. SOME DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL MOUNTAIN RANGE IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED IN LIEU OF THE SCHEDULED
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2300Z 19.2N 95.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 19.5N 96.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 26/1800Z 20.1N 97.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 27/0600Z 20.9N 99.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
48H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FERNAND ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013

...FERNAND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS LASHING VERACRUZ HARBOR...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 96.2W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTLA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO BARRA DE NAUTLA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 6 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FERNAND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.2 WEST. FERNAND IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE VERACRUZ METROPOLITAN AREA TONIGHT...
AND MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND
OBSERVING STATIONS IN VERACRUZ MEXICO INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
FERNAND MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WEAKENING WILL BEGIN AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER. TWO MEXICAN COASTAL WEATHER OBSERVING SITES IN
VERACRUZ HARBOR RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 50
MPH...85 KM/H WITH GUSTS UP TO 72 MPH...117 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...BASED ON NEARBY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM FERNAND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 4 TO 8
INCHES OF RAIN OVER VERACRUZ...HIDALGO...NORTHERN PUEBLA...SOUTHERN
TAMAULIPAS...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF VERACRUZ.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN



TROPICAL STORM FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND 850 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 52 KT ON ITS OUTBOUND LEG IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT...AND MEXICAN COASTAL OBSERVING STATIONS SACV4 AND VERV4
IN VERACRUZ HARBOR HAVE REPORTED 10-METER SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KT
AND 44 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT AND 63 KT...RESPECTIVELY...DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BASED ON THAT WIND DATA...THE INTENSITY OF
FERNAND HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING UNTIL FERNAND MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ IN A FEW HOURS...WHICH MAY
BE ONGOING BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE REPORTS AND A RECENT
BURST OF STRONG CONVECTION CONTAINING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUD TOPS
COLDER THAN -80C IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 280/08 KT...AND IS BASED MAINLY
ON MODEL GUIDANCE. A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
FERNAND SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AFTER WHICH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST COULD OCCUR AS THE REMNANT LOW MOVES PARALLEL TO
RATHER THAN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL
MOUNTAIN RANGE. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...FERNAND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
THE VERACRUZ METROPOLITAN AREA TONIGHT AND BE INLAND BY 0600 UTC.

HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF
VERACRUZ AND ADJACENT AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH FERNAND. THESE RAINS COULD TRIGGER SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 19.3N 96.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 19.7N 97.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 27/0000Z 20.3N 98.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...DISSIPATING INLAND
36H 27/1200Z 21.0N 99.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...DISSIPATING INLAND
48H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FERNAND ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
400 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

...FERNAND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 96.9W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO BARRA DE NAUTLA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FERNAND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.9 WEST. FERNAND IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER LAND...AND
FERNAND SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...AND A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...FERNAND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
VERACRUZ...HIDALGO...NORTHERN PUEBLA...SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...AND
EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR
12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE WARNING AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



TROPICAL STORM FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
400 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

OBSERVATIONS FROM THE ALVARADO MEXICO RADAR AND SURFACE DATA
INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS INLAND OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ.
WIND SPEED OBSERVATIONS FROM LA MANCHA BEACH...NOT FAR TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTER...SUGGEST THAT SOME WEAKENING HAS TAKEN PLACE...AND
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT. CONTINUED WEAKENING WILL
OCCUR WHILE THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE LAND MASS OF MEXICO.
THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A DEPRESSION IN 12 HOURS OR SO...AND
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT.

WHILE IT WAS CROSSING THE COASTLINE...THE CENTER TURNED TO THE
RIGHT...AND IT PRACTICALLY PARALLELED THE COAST AFTER MOVING
INLAND. THIS MOTION MAY HAVE BEEN IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. SINCE THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
FARTHER WEST LATER TODAY...THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OF FERNAND. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A MAINLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

ALTHOUGH FERNAND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...VERY HEAVY RAINS SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 19.8N 96.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 26/1800Z 20.4N 98.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 27/0600Z 21.1N 99.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/1800Z 21.5N 100.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FERNAND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
700 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

...FERNAND BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO EASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 97.2W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM NW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SSE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO BARRA DE NAUTLA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FERNAND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.2 WEST. FERNAND IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE WHILE THE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER LAND...AND FERNAND SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LATER TODAY...AND A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...FERNAND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
VERACRUZ...HIDALGO...NORTHERN PUEBLA...SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...AND
EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR
12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE WARNING AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
1000 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW THAT FERNAND CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND
OVER EASTERN MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS STILL PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...WIND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE HAS BEEN
DISRUPTED BY THE INTERACTION WITH LAND...AND FERNAND HAS WEAKENED
BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. CONTINUED WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS
THE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY AND DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO...IF
NOT SOONER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/8 KT. THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
UNTIL DISSIPATION.

HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE WILL SPREAD INLAND OVER
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 20.3N 97.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 20.9N 98.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 27/1200Z 21.4N 99.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

REMNANTS OF FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
400 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
OF FERNAND HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN
MEXICO. THEREFORE...THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS
SYSTEM. THE REMNANTS OF FERNAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 20.6N 98.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS
12H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN