WPAC: INVEST 92W

[jaguarjace]

14.7N 114.1E

[Extratropical94]

JMA: 23rd TD
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 16N 113E ALMOST STATIONARY.

JTWC: Low-potential disturbance
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.0N 113.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
WEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW
TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0N
113.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 111.8E, APPROXIMATELY 550 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 272012Z
SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION THAT IS
ALMOST ENTIRELY SPANNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 271544Z INDICATES THAT ALTOUGH
THE SYSTEM IS WELL DEFINED IT IS FAIRLY WEAK IN NATURE WITH ONLY 05
TO 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE HIGHER WINDS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE
SOUTHWEST MONSOON. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH
WEAKLY DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED DEFINITION OF THE SYSTEM,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Extratropical94]

JMA:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 18N 113E NNW SLOWLY.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.0N
113.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 113.3E, APPROXIMATELY 188 NM SOUTH
OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BROAD POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 281202Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A BROAD, YET DEFINED, CIRCULATION
SPANNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE
SSMIS IMAGE ALSO REVEALS A LACK OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
STICKING WITH THE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH A STEEP VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
GRADIENT AND IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT)
VWS WITH WEAKLY DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE LACK OF PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION AND POORLY DEFINED LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.