WPAC: INVEST 93W

[Extratropical94]

17.8N 135.9E
15 kts - 1010 mbars

Nothing on JTWC or JMA yet.

[mrbagyo]

there's a circulation but it's also struggling to survive due to wind shear

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.0N 138.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 500 NM NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH A 272050Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A BROAD, YET DEFINED, FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM
271406Z INDICATES A WEAK CIRCULATION WITH ONLY 10 TO 15 KNOT MAX
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Extratropical94]

24th tropical depression by JMA:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 19N 137E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.3N
137.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 137.5E, APPROXIMATELY 564 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, ALBEIT DEFINED, FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 280415Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A
DEFINED LLCC WITH DRY AIR BEGINNING TO BE ENTRAINED FROM THE NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION. RECENT SCATTEROMETERY DATA INDICATES A
WEAK CIRCULATION WITH ONLY 10 TO 15 KNOT MAX WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE
TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) VWS WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE LACK OF
DEEP CONVECTION AND APPROACHING DRY AIR, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.9N
135.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 133.9E, APPROXIMATELY 535 NM
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. FORMATIVE BANDING IS ALSO APPARENT ON A 291212Z
METOPA MICROWAVE PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS SLIGHTLY ABATED TO MODERATE VALUES (15-25 KNOTS). NUMERIC
MODELS PREDICT A WEAK DEVELOPMENT FRON THIS AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. IN VIEW OF THE IMPROVED
CONVECTION AND ABATED VWS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.2N
133.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 133.0E, APPROXIMATELY 516 NM
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A
FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 300041Z 89 GHZ
METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED LLCC WITH DRY AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. NUMERICAL MODELS ONLY INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

[RobWESTPACWX]

This guy should just fade away through the next 24hrs, to much dry air inflow around it and its going to have a head on collision with the cold front driving south out of China. Instant death sentence.