EPAC:JULIETTE - Post-Tropical

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jaguarjace
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EPAC:JULIETTE - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby jaguarjace » Tue Aug 27, 2013 8:54 am

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep962013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201308271343
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 96, 2013, DB, O, 2013082712, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP962013
EP, 96, 2013082612, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1030W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2013082618, , BEST, 0, 117N, 1029W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2013082700, , BEST, 0, 124N, 1028W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2013082706, , BEST, 0, 131N, 1028W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2013082712, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1028W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#2 Postby jaguarjace » Tue Aug 27, 2013 9:03 am

Image
25kts - 1007mb - 13.8N 102.8W
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#3 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Aug 27, 2013 10:21 am

Wow! So this separated from 95E? What is the model support for this showing? :crazyeyes:
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#4 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Aug 27, 2013 1:40 pm

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DEVELOPMENT
IS NOT LIKELY AFTER THAT TIME...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
5 DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
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#5 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Aug 28, 2013 3:57 am

1. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE LOW IS STILL PROBABLY PRODUCING
AN AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR ITS CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THE LOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE IT MOVES QUICKLY
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN INTERACTING WITH LAND OR MOVING OVER COLDER WATER BY
THURSDAY...AND DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME IS NOT LIKELY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND
THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI
AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.
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#6 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Aug 28, 2013 8:56 am

Latest TWO and best track data suggest that this disturbance is already at tropical storm strength, it only lacks a closed circulation which it requires to be named/numbered.

EP, 96, 2013082812, , BEST, 0, 193N, 1064W, 35, 1006, DB

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED EARLY THIS MORNING
NEAR A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO. HOWEVER...SATELLITE DATA SHOWS THAT THIS SYSTEM
DOES NOT HAVE CLOSED CIRCULATION. SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
TODAY AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20
MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WHEN THE
LOW MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT...AND DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME IS
NOT EXPECTED. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA PENINSULA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#7 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Aug 28, 2013 9:06 am

What is the likelihood of this invest not being classified because of a lack of a closed circulation? I would say 50-60%.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#8 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Aug 28, 2013 9:39 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:What is the likelihood of this invest not being classified because of a lack of a closed circulation? I would say 50-60%.

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60% chance of non-development is also what the NHC says.

The latest ASCAT pass (about 10 hours ago) confirms that there's nothing significant down at the surface, especially not where the best track data has it (19N 106W).

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#9 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Aug 28, 2013 10:14 am

When is the Pacific going to have something that actually develops? We've had two consecutive invests with medium to high development potentials that all but fizzled out for some unknown reason. There is a new 10% area in the open Pacific, but it is heading in the same direction of these dissipating invests. Don't get me wrong, I do not wish devastating landfalls on anyone, but it was being said that the MJO is in a favourable state, so what's causing these areas to fall apart? Answers will be greatly appreciated. Thanks.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#10 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Aug 28, 2013 2:23 pm

LOL

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep962013_ep102013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201308281912
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#11 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Aug 28, 2013 2:24 pm

Juliette at 5PM EDT

EP, 10, 2013082818, , BEST, 0, 209N, 1081W, 40, 1004
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#12 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 28, 2013 2:26 pm

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1220 PM PDT WED AUG 28 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL STORM APPEARS TO
BE FORMING IN THE DISTURBANCE NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

UPDATED...SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS ACQUIRED A WELL-DEFINED CLOSED
WIND CIRCULATION AND THAT A TROPICAL STORM IS FORMING. ADVISORIES
ON THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO BE INITIATED WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HEAVY RAINS
AND WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#13 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Aug 28, 2013 2:46 pm

OMG! This is a clear example of how unpredictable these storms can get! We humans can never predict them with 100% accuracy! Wow! :crazyeyes:
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#14 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 28, 2013 3:15 pm

This will probably go down in the BT as a tropical storm for quite a while...I would think at least.
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#15 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Aug 28, 2013 3:29 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102013
200 PM PDT WED AUG 28 2013

...SMALL TROPICAL STORM FORMS NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 108.6W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO
ON THE EAST COAST AROUND TO BAHIA MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN EVARISTO TO BAHIA MAGDALENA...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A FURTHER REDUCTION IN
FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF JULIETTE WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TONIGHT...AND
WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


000
WTPZ45 KNHC 282013
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102013
200 PM PDT WED AUG 28 2013

A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ACQUIRED A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE INSTRUMENT MEASURED A SMALL AREA OF
40 KT WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY
ASSIGNED TO THE CYCLONE. CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS INCREASED
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA...THE
SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. JULIETTE IS A VERY SMALL
CYCLONE WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUT ONLY 30 TO 40
N MI EAST OF THE CENTER. THE TROPICAL STORM DOES NOT HAVE MUCH
TIME IN WHICH TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN
BAJA PENINSULA AND REACHES COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS
WEST OF THE PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH STEADY WEAKENING EXPECTED THERAFTER. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...IF NOT
SOONER.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH
SOME REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AS THE
CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES SHALLOWER...IT SHOULD TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AND DECELERATE EVEN MORE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 21.5N 108.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 23.8N 110.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 25.6N 113.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 26.2N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 26.8N 117.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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#16 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 28, 2013 4:46 pm

Storms form when you least expect it.

Juliete likely won't be that strong IMO though.
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Re: EPAC:JULIETTE - Tropical Storm

#17 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 28, 2013 6:43 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102013
500 PM PDT WED AUG 28 2013

...CENTER OF JULIETTE APPROACHING CABO SAN LUCAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 109.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...40 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO TO
BAHIA MAGDALENA...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 25 MPH...40 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A FURTHER REDUCTION IN
FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF JULIETTE WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE CABO SAN
LUCAS AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND NEAR OR OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TONIGHT...AND
WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING AREA LATER TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: EPAC:JULIETTE - Tropical Storm

#18 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 28, 2013 9:48 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102013
800 PM PDT WED AUG 28 2013

...CENTER OF JULIETTE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 110.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO TO
BAHIA MAGDALENA...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A FURTHER REDUCTION IN
FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF JULIETTE WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...
AN AUTOMATED STATION AT CABO PULMO MEXICO REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 39 MPH...62 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 52 MPH...84 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING AREA LATER TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102013
800 PM PDT WED AUG 28 2013

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF
JULIETTE IS NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE ORGANIZATION
HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...WITH THE SMALL CENTER
NEAR THE NORTH EDGE OF A PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE MASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND A SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM CABO PULMO MEXICO.

JULIETTE IS MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD...315/21...AS IT IS
EMBEDDED IN STRONG DEEP-LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH
SOME REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER
THAT...IT SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE GYRE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER 12 HR...AND IT LIES A LITTLE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

A COMBINATION OF LAND INTERACTION AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE JULIETTE TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN
24 HR OR LESS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT
LOW OVER COLD WATER IN ABOUT 36 HR AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BETWEEN
48-72 HR. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THIS SMALL CYCLONE WOULD
DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST BY DEGENERATING TO AN
OPEN TROUGH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 23.0N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 24.7N 111.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 26.2N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 27.1N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/0000Z 27.6N 118.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Yellow Evan
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#19 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 28, 2013 10:18 pm

Center of Juliette seems just offshore. About as close to land as Flossie.
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supercane4867
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Re: EPAC:JULIETTE - Tropical Storm

#20 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Aug 29, 2013 1:00 am

...JULIETTE A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT PASSES JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

11:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 28
Location: 23.8°N 111.0°W
Moving: NW at 23 mph
Min pressure: 999 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
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