EPAC:JULIETTE - Post-Tropical

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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC:JULIETTE - Tropical Storm

#21 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 29, 2013 4:50 am

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102013
200 AM PDT THU AUG 29 2013

WIND REPORTS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA LATE LAST EVENING INDICATED THAT JULIETTE WAS A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. AN ELEVATED SENSOR AT CABO
PULMO MEASURED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 57 KT AND A GUST TO 72 KT AROUND
0500 UTC...AND ANOTHER ELEVATED STATION FURTHER UP THE WEST COAST
AT EL PESCADERO REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 38 KT WITH A GUST TO
60 KT AROUND 0430 UTC. BASED ON AN ADJUSTMENT OF THESE DATA...AND
THE FACT THAT JULIETTE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A HEALTHY CLUSTER OF
DEEP CONVECTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/19 KT. JULIETTE IS BEING STEERED QUICKLY
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS CALIFORNIA INTO THE PACIFIC DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE JULIETTE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A BIT NORTH AND
EAST ON THIS CYCLE...LEAVING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST HAS THEREFORE BEEN NUDGED NORTHEASTWARD AND KEEPS THE
CENTER OF JULIETTE CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS.

JULIETTE HAS BEEN BENEFITTING FROM A SMALL TONGUE OF WARM WATER THAT
EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...BUT THE CYCLONE IS QUICKLY APPROACHING MUCH COLDER
WATER. THE COLD WATER...AS WELL AS CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH
LAND...IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE JULIETTE TO WEAKEN VERY SOON. THE
UPDATED INITIAL INTENSITY CAUSED AN UPWARD BUMP IN THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW KEEPS JULIETTE AS A
TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 24 HOURS IN LINE WITH THE ICON INTENSITY
CONSENSUS.

THE SLIGHT NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE UPDATED
INTENSITY FORECAST NOW PUTS MORE OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT RISK FOR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS. THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS THEREFORE EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING NORTHWARD TO PUNTA EUGENIA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 24.4N 111.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 26.1N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 27.7N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 28.5N 118.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/0600Z 28.9N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN
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Yellow Evan
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#22 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 29, 2013 7:15 am

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 291153
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102013
500 AM PDT THU AUG 29 2013

...JULIETTE STILL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 112.4W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA
TO PUNTA EUGENIA
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SAN
EVARISTO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR
LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST. JULIETTE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF JULIETTE WILL CONTINUE MOVING
ALONG OR NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JULIETTE SHOULD WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH BY TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY AND THEN BECOME A REMNANT
LOW LATER ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY.

RAINFALL...JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: EPAC:JULIETTE - Tropical Storm

#23 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 29, 2013 3:51 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102013
200 PM PDT THU AUG 29 2013

THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE HAS CONTINUED
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 30 KT. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AS IT MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS WEST
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE
SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JULIETTE HAS DECELERATED AS
ANTICIPATED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/14 KT. THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED. THE MODELS
REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 26.1N 113.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 27.2N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 30/1800Z 28.2N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 31/0600Z 28.8N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: EPAC:JULIETTE - Tropical Storm

#24 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Aug 29, 2013 8:47 pm

cycloneye wrote:AN ELEVATED SENSOR AT CABO
PULMO MEASURED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 57 KT AND A GUST TO 72 KT AROUND
0500 UTC


Juliette maybe upgrade to 50kt in post-analysis base on this observation
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Re: EPAC:JULIETTE - Post-Tropical

#25 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 29, 2013 9:42 pm

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102013
800 PM PDT THU AUG 29 2013

ALL THAT REMAINS OF JULIETTE IS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL SWIRL WITH NO
ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BASED ON THE LACK OF ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY...JULIETTE IS
DECLARED A REMNANT LOW AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT...AND THIS COULD BE GENEROUS BASED ON
A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM EARLIER. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN OVER COLD WATERS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS LOSE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHIN
24-36H.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 26.7N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 30/1200Z 27.6N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 31/0000Z 28.5N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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