EPAC: KIKO - Post-Tropical

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cycloneye
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EPAC: KIKO - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 29, 2013 4:10 pm

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep982013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201308292059
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 98, 2013, DB, O, 2013082918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP982013
EP, 98, 2013082918, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1149W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#2 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Aug 29, 2013 5:53 pm

Again, as of now, I see no significant development of this system. Simply because several of the models are showing a 45 knot peak, it will soon be within close proximity to land and over cold waters, and because it is currently lacking organisation. Maybe a brief storm may be the most this system becomes, but I see nothing much beyond an invest.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#3 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 30, 2013 4:12 pm

Special Tropical Weather Outlook

SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAVE
BECOME MUCH MORE ORGANIZED. THIS LOW IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR EARLY TOMORROW BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS
COOLER WATERS LATER THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE NORTH AT ABOUT 10 MPH...AND
A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#4 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Aug 30, 2013 4:56 pm

Good thing I said "as of now". :ggreen:

Anything is possible in this fascinating basin. It is definitely less affected by hostile consitions than the Atlantic.

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#5 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Fri Aug 30, 2013 5:01 pm

From 10% to 60%

SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAVE
BECOME MUCH MORE ORGANIZED. THIS LOW IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR EARLY TOMORROW BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS
COOLER WATERS LATER THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE NORTH AT ABOUT 10 MPH...AND
A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#6 Postby Florida1118 » Fri Aug 30, 2013 6:43 pm

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED THIS
EVENING IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10
MPH...AND A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#7 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Aug 30, 2013 6:52 pm

Wow that escalated quickly, another example that models sometimes just cannot foreseen development
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#8 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 30, 2013 7:46 pm

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep982013_ep112013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201308310045
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E: It has been renumbered

#9 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 30, 2013 7:49 pm

EP, 11, 2013083100, , BEST, 0, 180N, 1156W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ELEVEN, M,
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E: It has been renumbered

#10 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Aug 30, 2013 8:03 pm

Is this one of the earliest dates of formation for the eleventh depression?

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#11 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Aug 30, 2013 8:04 pm

The Pacific has been producing a lot of storms lately. Nearly all of them have been weak however.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E: It has been renumbered

#12 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Aug 30, 2013 8:17 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Is this one of the earliest dates of formation for the eleventh depression?

Year 1992 overwhelms that, already at 18th by this date
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E: It has been renumbered

#13 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 30, 2013 8:28 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Is this one of the earliest dates of formation for the eleventh depression?

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Not even close. It's the 14th technically.
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Re: EPAC: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression

#14 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 30, 2013 9:43 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 30 2013

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 115.9W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.9
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
SATURDAY...BUT COULD START TO WEAKEN ON SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 30 2013

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMED WITHIN THE LARGE ITCZ
CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ASCAT DATA
SUGGESTED THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE ABOUT 30 KT...AND THAT WILL BE THE
INITIAL INTENSITY. WHILE THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY HAS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR STRENGTHENING....IT WILL REACH COOLER WATERS IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR
BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR WITHIN A DAY OR
TWO. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY EXCITED AT ALL ABOUT THE PROSPECTS
OF SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...WITH THE HIGHEST RELIABLE MODEL
SUGGESTING A PEAK INTENSITY OF A WHOPPING 46 KT. GIVEN THE TIME OF
THE YEAR...THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND NOT TOO FAR FROM A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM.

BEST GUESS OF INITIAL MOTION IS 330/6. THE LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA
SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...
WHICH WILL LIKELY TURN THE SLOW-MOVING DEPRESSION NORTHWARD IN A
DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON
WHETHER THE SYSTEM WOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...OR TURN
BACK SOUTHWARD DUE TO AN ENHANCED ITCZ REDEVELOPING SOUTH OF
MEXICO. GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AND STEERED
MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AT LONG RANGE...THE NHC FORECAST WILL
PUT MORE WEIGHT ON THE EQUATORWARD SOLUTIONS. ALL GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW DISSIPATION WITHIN 120 HR...AND SO DOES THE NHC PREDICTION
BELOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 18.3N 115.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 19.1N 116.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 20.0N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 20.7N 116.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 21.3N 116.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 21.5N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 21.0N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re: EPAC: ELEVEN-E - Tropical Depression

#15 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Aug 30, 2013 10:05 pm

...WITH THE HIGHEST RELIABLE MODEL
SUGGESTING A PEAK INTENSITY OF A WHOPPING 46 KT.


Even the NHC is getting tired of these weak systems. Official forecast shows modest strengthening into a weak tropical storm. :raincloud:

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#16 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Aug 30, 2013 11:21 pm

Did anyone notice that the storm track at NHC has been revamped completely when you click on the storm icon or am I late in this?
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Re: EPAC: ELEVEN-E - Tropical Depression

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 31, 2013 4:43 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013

A 0407 UTC TRMM PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS
LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY. THIS
STRUCTURE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 10-15 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR
ANALYZED OVER THE CYCLONE BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS SATELLITE
ANALYSES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT BASED ON THE LATEST
TAFB DVORAK CLASSIFICATION AND A 0445Z ASCAT-A PASS. THE DEPRESSION
HAS ONLY A DAY OR SO TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER
COOLER WATERS. HOWEVER...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED OFF THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
IMPART MODERATE SHEAR ON THE CYCLONE DURING THAT TIME...WHICH
SUGGESTS ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED DOWNWARD THIS CYCLE...WITH ONLY THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWING THE
DEPRESSION REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE NHC FORECAST HAS
BEEN NUDGED DOWNWARD BUT STILL REMAINS ABOVE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AND
DISSIPATE BY DAY 5...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/07. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER-
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION OF
THE DEPRESSION DURING THAT TIME. THEN AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS...MOST
OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED AND
A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH BY DAY 4 AS THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE TVCE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 18.8N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 19.5N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 20.2N 116.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 20.9N 116.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 21.3N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 21.3N 117.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 20.9N 117.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: EPAC: ELEVEN-E - Tropical Depression

#18 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 31, 2013 9:56 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERNIGHT WAS AMBIGUOUS ON THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE CYCLONE. FORTUNATELY...A 0938Z NOAA-19 AMSU AND A
1217Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASSES WERE HELPFUL IN MORE ACCURATELY LOCATING
ITS CENTER. THESE INDICATE A MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM OF 325/6...
PRIMARILY DUE TO STEERING PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEAST
OF THE CYCLONE. AS THE CYCLONE WINDS DOWN IN ABOUT TWO TO THREE
DAYS...IT WILL SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT MORE WESTWARD
INITIAL POSITION AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TAFB...SAB...AND ADT SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT SINCE THE 1200Z
ESTIMATES AND THE SYSTEM COULD BE REACHING TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY
SHORTLY. HOWEVER...INTENSIFICATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL
LIKELY BE QUITE SHORT-LIVED...AS COOLER SSTS AND A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE LIE ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE SYSTEM STARTING IN
ABOUT A DAY AND A HALF. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN
NOT BRINGING THE CYCLONE HIGHER THAN A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. THE
INTENSITY PREDICTION MIRRORS THIS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
IN ABOUT THREE DAYS AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS...WHILE
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 19.1N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 19.8N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 20.6N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 21.5N 117.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 21.9N 117.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 22.0N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
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#19 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 31, 2013 11:52 am

Very boring system IMO. 2013 PHS sucks IMO.
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Re: EPAC: ELEVEN-E - Tropical Depression

#20 Postby jaguarjace » Sat Aug 31, 2013 12:58 pm

Floater loop.
Image
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