EPAC: KIKO - Post-Tropical

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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: KIKO - Tropical Storm

#61 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 01, 2013 3:36 pm

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013

SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF KIKO HAS
DEGRADED SIGNIFICANTLY. DEEP CONVECTION...WHAT LITTLE THERE IS THAT
REMAINS...IS LIMITED TO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEVERTHELESS...
KIKO REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL STORM BASED ON A 47-KT
SCATTEROMETER WIND REPORT FROM A 1653 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS. AS A
RESULT OF THE SCATTEROMETER DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY
BEING DECREASED TO 50 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/05 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. KIKO IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
GRADUALLY SLOW AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. AS
KIKO WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW CIRCULATION...THE CYCLONE COULD
BECOME STATIONARY AS A REMNANT LOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
NHC FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK...AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCE.

KIKO IS BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS A TIGHT SST GRADIENT AND WILL BE
MOVING OVER SUB-26C OCEAN TEMPERATURES SHORTLY. IN ADDITION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE HAS STARTED TO INGEST
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR LOCATED TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO UNFAVORABLE PARAMETERS IS EXPECTED TO
HASTEN THE WEAKENING OF KIKO OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RESULT IN
A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
AND FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS...
WHICH ARE FORECASTING DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM IN 48 AND 96
HOURS...RESPECTIVELY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 21.8N 115.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 22.5N 115.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 23.1N 116.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 23.5N 116.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 23.7N 116.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/1800Z 24.0N 116.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: EPAC: KIKO - Tropical Storm

#62 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 01, 2013 9:42 pm

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KIKO IS FADING...AND DVORAK DATA
T-NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN FAST. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY RULE...THE
ADVISORY WIND SPEED IS SET...PERHAPS GENEROUSLY...AT 45 KT. KIKO
IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE
AIR MASS. THESE FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING...AND THE
SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY BECOME A DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS...OR SOONER. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT FAR FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS OR THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.

LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STORM HAS
ALREADY TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ABOUT 340/5. A WEAK MID- TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE CYCLONE SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME A SHALLOW
CYCLONE IN A DAY OR SO...THE FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY TO SLOW TO A
CRAWL WITHIN THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS TO THE WEST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND JUST A TAD TO THE
WEST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 22.5N 116.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 23.1N 116.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 23.5N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 23.9N 116.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/0000Z 24.1N 116.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/0000Z 24.2N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: EPAC: KIKO - Tropical Depression

#63 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 02, 2013 5:56 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013
200 AM PDT MON SEP 02 2013

THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KIKO DISSIPATED
OVERNIGHT...AND THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO QUICKLY FALL...AND
A BLEND OF THE LATEST T- AND CI-NUMBERS SUGGEST AN INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 30 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AND
BECOME A REMNANT LOW AS IT MOVES OVER COOL WATERS AND IN A STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. DISSIPATION OF THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST IN A DAY
OR TWO...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

NIGHTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT KIKO HAS SLOWED
DOWN WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 335/4 KT. THE CYCLONE
IS PREDICTED TO CONTINUE SLOWING DOWN TODAY AS IT BECOMES
SITUATED IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 22.7N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 23.2N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 03/0600Z 23.5N 116.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 03/1800Z 23.7N 116.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: EPAC: KIKO - Tropical Depression

#64 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 02, 2013 9:55 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013
800 AM PDT MON SEP 02 2013

KIKO HAS ONLY BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION SINCE ABOUT 0700 UTC
AND SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION IS STILL OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER AND
IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. AS A RESULT...KIKO IS BEING MAINTAINED AS
A 30-KT DEPRESSION...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH AN AVERAGE OF ALL
AVAILABLE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE UPPER- AND LOWER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF THE CYCLONE
HAVE NOW DECOUPLED...SO KIKO SHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AND BECOME
A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. DISSIPATION OF THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED
BY 48 HOURS...BUT IT COULD OCCUR SOONER THAN THAT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 325/02 KT. AS INDICATED IN
PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...KIKO HAS SLOWED DOWN CONSIDERABLY. THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BASICALLY MEANDER IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA
WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS UNTIL IT
DISSIPATES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 22.9N 116.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 23.2N 116.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 03/1200Z 23.5N 116.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/0000Z 23.7N 116.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: EPAC: KIKO - Post-Tropical

#65 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 02, 2013 3:40 pm

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013
200 PM PDT MON SEP 02 2013

KIKO HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN 12
HOURS AS IT HAS CONTINUED TO INGEST DRIER AND MORE STABLE LOW-LEVEL
AIR AND HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER COOL WATERS THE PAST 6
HOURS. THEREFORE...THE CYCLONE IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DESPITE THE LACK OF
CONVECTION...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
IS STILL QUITE ROBUST...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. NOW THAT KIKO HAS BECOME A SHALLOW VORTEX
EMBEDDED IN WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT CONTINUES TO SPIN
DOWN OVER 24C SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 22.9N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 03/0600Z 22.9N 116.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 03/1800Z 22.8N 116.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/0600Z 22.7N 116.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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#66 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Sep 03, 2013 4:06 pm

"Remnants of former Tropical Storm Kiko will bring abundant moisture to the West, reaching as far north as the Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest. Flash Flood Watches are in effect today for the Inter-mountain West."
http://www.weather.gov/


:eek: :?:
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