EPAC: KIKO - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Hurricane_Luis
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 722
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Jun 23, 2012 3:14 pm
Location: Tiptree, Essex, United Kingdom
Contact:

Re: EPAC: ELEVEN-E - Tropical Depression

#21 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sat Aug 31, 2013 1:41 pm

For a Depression, Its not looking bad, I've seen worse.

Image
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16062
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

#22 Postby RL3AO » Sat Aug 31, 2013 1:50 pm

Easily looks like a TS based on Dvorak.

EDIT: SSD agrees. Just being limited by constraints.



H. REMARKS...DT=2.5 BASED ON .5 BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=2.5. MET=2.5. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING FT TO LESS
THAN T2.5 WITHIN 24 HOURS OF INITIAL CLASSIFICATION. .
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 113713
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: ELEVEN-E - Tropical Depression

#23 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 31, 2013 1:58 pm

18z Best track up to 40kts.

EP, 11, 2013083118, , BEST, 0, 191N, 1163W, 40, 1005, TS
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2874
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Location: Marietta,GA

Re: EPAC: ELEVEN-E - Tropical Depression

#24 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Aug 31, 2013 2:01 pm

Definitely the best TD I've seen :lol:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9710
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: EPAC: ELEVEN-E - Tropical Depression

#25 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 31, 2013 2:05 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Definitely the best TD I've seen :lol:



Image

Four hour old SSMI pass.

But um. Nice eye?
0 likes   
Image

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16062
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: EPAC: ELEVEN-E - Tropical Depression

#26 Postby RL3AO » Sat Aug 31, 2013 2:18 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Definitely the best TD I've seen :lol:

[img ]http://i.imgur.com/fYo60Xc.jpg[/img]


Almost looks like a full wrap on the band... :eek:
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9710
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: EPAC: ELEVEN-E - Tropical Depression

#27 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 31, 2013 2:22 pm

RL3AO wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Definitely the best TD I've seen :lol:

[img ]http://i.imgur.com/fYo60Xc.jpg[/img]


Almost looks like a full wrap on the band... :eek:

I'd have to say this is more than a 40kt system.
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9710
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#28 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 31, 2013 2:25 pm

Image
Look at that!

I know there isn't much at the surface but that's as clear as they've been this year. I doubt that's dry air being entrained into the COC/LLC as it's suited in a pretty moist environment.
0 likes   
Image

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 27212
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#29 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 31, 2013 2:33 pm

Surprised they never put out a Special Advisory there...
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9710
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#30 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 31, 2013 2:40 pm

EP 11 201308311529 30 SSMS C 1890N 11620W 2 2 2 NHC CWL SSMS 2 TWO-THIRDS EYEWALL? 89 GHZ
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9710
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#31 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 31, 2013 2:42 pm

Image

Latest AMSUB pass.
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9710
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#32 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 31, 2013 2:46 pm

Got this from Wunderground lol:

"POST SEASON ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DEPRESSION BRIEFLY STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE AT AROUND 19Z 31 AUGUST"


I could imagine the next discussion being like this:
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT 11E HAS DEVELOPED AN EYEWALL... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOW 11E HAVING A WELL DEFINED EYE... BASED ON THESE TWO NEW DEVELOPMENTS... WE ARE UPGRADING 11E TO A TROPICAL STORM... AND THAT MAY BE CONSERVATIVE
0 likes   
Image

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2679
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: EPAC: ELEVEN-E - Tropical Depression

#33 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Aug 31, 2013 3:20 pm

What? :P Is that an eye? What are the chances of this storm becoming like Daniel last year or Henriette this year, in other words, a storm that defies forecasts and intensifies?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11186
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re:

#34 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 31, 2013 3:27 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Got this from Wunderground lol:

"POST SEASON ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DEPRESSION BRIEFLY STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE AT AROUND 19Z 31 AUGUST"


I could imagine the next discussion being like this:
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT 11E HAS DEVELOPED AN EYEWALL... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOW 11E HAVING A WELL DEFINED EYE... BASED ON THESE TWO NEW DEVELOPMENTS... WE ARE UPGRADING 11E TO A TROPICAL STORM... AND THAT MAY BE CONSERVATIVE


They won't call it "11E" probs.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11186
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: ELEVEN-E - Tropical Depression

#35 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 31, 2013 3:33 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:What? :P Is that an eye? What are the chances of this storm becoming like Daniel last year or Henriette this year, in other words, a storm that defies forecasts and intensifies?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Yes, but a hurricane like Daniel 12 is unlikely IMO. It may or may not be like Barbara 13 IMO intensity-wise.
0 likes   

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1358
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

#36 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Aug 31, 2013 3:38 pm

Well this is surprising. We underestimated it when it was developing and same thing now. Probably has been rapidly intensifying since yesterday.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes   
I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 113713
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: KIKO - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 31, 2013 3:45 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013

...DEPRESSION HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM
KIKO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 116.2W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 113713
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: KIKO - Tropical Storm

#38 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 31, 2013 3:47 pm


TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013

SURPRISINGLY...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM KIKO. A RAGGED EYE HAS
INTERMITTENTLY APPEARED IN THE CENTER OF A SMALL CDO IN THE VISIBLE
IMAGERY...WHILE MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM A 1714Z METOP-A AMSU PASS
ALSO SHOWED A BANDING EYE DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...THE SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 1800Z CAME IN QUITE LOW WITH INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF NEAR 35 KT. EVEN THE ADT ONLY SUGGESTED ABOUT 45
KT...AS THE EYE IS NOT YET DISTINCT IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY. BASED
UPON THE RAPID RECENT DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED IN THE IMAGERY...THE
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KT WITH A LARGER THAN USUAL AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY.

THE RAGGED EYE ALLOWS FOR A RATHER CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE
MOTION OF THE STORM AT 335/4. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
AT THIS SLOW FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF OR
SO...PRIMARILY DUE TO STEERING PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. AS THE CYCLONE WINDS DOWN IN ABOUT TWO
DAYS...IT MAY NEARLY STALL AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO A SHIFT IN THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE UNEXPECTED RAPID INTENSIFICATION MAY BE ASCRIBED TO THE LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS THAT THE CYCLONE
IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN. HOWEVER...NONE OF OUR STATISTICAL NOR
DYNAMICAL MODELS HAD A CLUE THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY AS MUCH
AS IT DID. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...ITS INTENSITY IS PREDICTED
TO PEAK AS A HIGH END TROPICAL STORM...BUT EVEN A CATEGORY 1
HURRICANE IS NOT UNREALISTIC. COOLER SSTS AND A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE LIE ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE SYSTEM STARTING IN
ABOUT A DAY AND A HALF...AND WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE THEN. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS WELL ABOVE ALL GUIDANCE DUE TO THE MUCH
STRONGER INITIAL CONDITIONS. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT FOUR
DAYS...WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 19.3N 116.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 20.1N 116.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 21.0N 116.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 21.7N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 22.1N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 22.3N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2679
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: EPAC: KIKO - Tropical Storm

#39 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Aug 31, 2013 3:55 pm

Oh my gosh! Rapid jump of 25 mph from 35 mph to 60 mph in just 6 hours! I would expect continued intensification, and possibly a hurricane! And it's safe to say it's a nice storm, considering it is in open waters! :jump:

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11186
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: KIKO - Tropical Storm

#40 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 31, 2013 5:06 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Oh my gosh! Rapid jump of 25 mph from 35 mph to 60 mph in just 6 hours! I would expect continued intensification, and possibly a hurricane! And it's safe to say it's a nice storm, considering it is in open waters! :jump:

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


It was likely a TS at 15z and maybe even 9z. This honestly is not all that rare, it's only 20 knts, I've seen better things happen.
0 likes   


Return to “2013”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests