ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

Here's something to take note of. Notice the red area shaded east of the Caribbean on Week 1.

[cycloneye]

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA GULFSTREAM
AIRCRAFT SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAIN DISORGANIZED...AND THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE WAVE REACHES THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN 4 OR 5 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

10% seems like a fair assessment for the next 2 days; 20% over the next 5 may be a bit conservative.

[SFLcane]

The way this season has gone " there are no signs of a surface circulation ". This wave overall is still very disorganized but worth keeping an eye on as it gets into the Carib.

[HurricaneDREW92]

DMAX might be interesting

[HURAKAN]

most of the convection appears to be driven by upper level diffluence caused by the shear

[blp]

Look what awaits 97l if it reaches the WCarb. Lots of potential.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 97, 2013090100, , BEST, 0, 150N, 569W, 25, 1009, DB

[Gustywind]

8 PM Discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 18N54W
THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 15N56W TO 12N56W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE
W TROPICAL ATLC FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 40W-60W ENCOMPASSING THIS
WAVE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 50W-56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 14N-17N
BETWEEN 56W-62W.

[cycloneye]

31/2345 UTC 15.4N 54.9W TOO WEAK 97L -- Atlantic

00z Best Track is at 150N, 569W.

Which is the correct position?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

31/2345 UTC 15.4N 54.9W TOO WEAK 97L -- Atlantic

00z Best Track is at 150N, 569W.

Which is the correct position?

NHC position seems about a degree too far west, but the SAB position seems about a degree too far east. Looks to be right on 59.9-56W.

[cycloneye]

TXNT28 KNES 010012
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97L)

B. 31/2345Z

C. 15.4N

D. 54.9W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY BECAUSE
CONVECTION...WHILE CURRENTLY MEASURABLE...HAS NOT BEEN PERSISTENT. UNSURE
IF CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION EXISTS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MCCARTHY


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/20 ... 4597L.html

[Sanibel]

Look what awaits 97l if it reaches the WCarb. Lots of potential.

Agreed. Convection now at center.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Look what awaits 97l if it reaches the WCarb. Lots of potential.

Agreed. Convection now at center.

Still think this is gonna be an East Coast storm. The question is how far west does it go and how strong does it get.

I'm a blind squirrel...see if this verifies

[Hurricane Alexis]

Look what awaits 97l if it reaches the WCarb. Lots of potential.

Agreed. Convection now at center.

Still think this is gonna be an East Coast storm. The question is how far west does it go and how strong does it get.

It'll have to deepen quickly for it to be an east coast storm. I'm not a met, but it doesn't look like that will happen based on the models and the current pattern.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[stormlover2013]

Why do you think east coast, don't just make a guess, give us a explanation

[stormlover2013]

Exactly Alexis!!

[fci]

Look what awaits 97l if it reaches the WCarb. Lots of potential.

Agreed. Convection now at center.

Still think this is gonna be an East Coast storm. The question is how far west does it go and how strong does it get.

What leads you to believe this will be an east coast issue?
NHC has been taking about the potential if it gets to the Western Carib.
Please share your reasoning.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I can't speak for anyone, but I suspect the user might be basing this idea on the models that do develop the Invest take in north to the Bahamas by the end of their runs.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=115561&start=20

[SeGaBob]

The storm appears to be maintaining dark reds for now.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
Of course this is only my opinion...