ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

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#1601 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 09, 2013 10:29 pm

SHIPS brings us Hurricane Gabrielle within 5 days...per the models thread
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#1602 Postby bahamaswx » Mon Sep 09, 2013 11:14 pm

I'd be shocked if there's no LLC in there somewhere.
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Re:

#1603 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 09, 2013 11:29 pm

bahamaswx wrote:I'd be shocked if there's no LLC in there somewhere.


not to sound alarmist, but it would not surprise me the way things are going with this, if it makes it to hurricane intensity before Humberto. It would be very surprising if it is not at least 50mph right now judging by satellite and appears to be strengthening at a fairly quick pace today.

post is solely the opinion of poster and not official.
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#1604 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 09, 2013 11:54 pm

Hammy wrote:
bahamaswx wrote:I'd be shocked if there's no LLC in there somewhere.


not to sound alarmist, but it would not surprise me the way things are going with this, if it makes it to hurricane intensity before Humberto. It would be very surprising if it is not at least 50mph right now judging by satellite and appears to be strengthening at a fairly quick pace today.

post is solely the opinion of poster and not official.


not sure about hurricane.. but its clearly a td.. microwave and visible showed a clear LLC convection has been way more organized that it ever was and even more so than half the systems this year..

very likely probably about 50mph.. but hey oh well
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#1605 Postby RL3AO » Tue Sep 10, 2013 12:15 am

IMO the NHC is way too slow on this. Its already a TS again.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L (Gabrielle remnants) - Discussion: 40% / 50%

#1606 Postby AdamFirst » Tue Sep 10, 2013 12:22 am

I won't be surprised if advisories are re-initiated later this morning.

70%/80%

1. SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES
SOUTH OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED. IN ADDITION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IF
THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED ON
THIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS MORNING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BRINGING IT OVER OR VERY NEAR BERMUDA
ON WEDNESDAY...AND INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE
REQUIRED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...
80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON.
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#1607 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 10, 2013 12:29 am

yeah they have to at this point.. to far along.

i mean come on

lol http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L (Gabrielle remnants) - Discussion: 70% / 80%

#1608 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 10, 2013 1:39 am

invest_RENUMBER_al922013_al072013.ren

She's back at 5am
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L (Gabrielle remnants) - Discussion: 70% / 80%

#1609 Postby lester » Tue Sep 10, 2013 1:41 am

Brent wrote:invest_RENUMBER_al922013_al072013.ren

She's back at 5am


dang, you beat me =/ lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L (Gabrielle remnants) - Discussion: 70% / 80%

#1610 Postby AJC3 » Tue Sep 10, 2013 1:44 am

M/I with OSCAT overlay from a little after midnight. Looked like 40kt then...

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#1611 Postby lester » Tue Sep 10, 2013 1:51 am

AL, 07, 2013091006, , BEST, 0, 290N, 650W, 35, 1008, TS
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#1612 Postby Zanthe » Tue Sep 10, 2013 2:01 am

Tropics really starting to ramp back up. She's back! (from the best track, no?)
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#1613 Postby Zanthe » Tue Sep 10, 2013 2:02 am

Tropics really starting to ramp back up. She's back! (from the best track, no?)
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Re:

#1614 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 10, 2013 2:04 am

lester wrote:AL, 07, 2013091006, , BEST, 0, 290N, 650W, 35, 1008, TS


And with that, we now for the first time have two active systems simultaneously this year. And I guess they're waiting until reconnaissance (or at least another scatterometer overpass) before going higher with the wind.
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#1615 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Sep 10, 2013 3:34 am

We have Gabby again officially and we'll also see advisories issued at 3 hour intervals b/c of the TS warnings for Bermuda.



...GABRIELLE REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOUTH OF BERMUDA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 65.0W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L (Gabrielle remnants) - Discussion: 70% / 80%

#1616 Postby abajan » Tue Sep 10, 2013 3:40 am

Thread's title needs to be changed.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L (Gabrielle remnants) - Discussion: 70% / 80%

#1617 Postby abajan » Tue Sep 10, 2013 3:42 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
500 AM AST TUE SEP 10 2013

...GABRIELLE REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOUTH OF BERMUDA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 65.0W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON BERMUDA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST.
GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...GABRIELLE
IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR NEAR BERMUDA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41049 LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 36 MPH...57 KM/H
AND A GUST TO 40 MPH...65 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA. IN ADDITION...ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA BY THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 6
INCHES POSSIBLE.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL: GABRIELLE- Tropical Storm-Discussion

#1618 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Sep 10, 2013 4:12 am

Title updated
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Re: ATL: GABRIELLE- Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1619 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 10, 2013 6:39 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
800 AM AST TUE SEP 10 2013

...GABRIELLE HEADING TOWARD BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 64.9W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
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#1620 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 10, 2013 7:20 am

I bet they find it around 50 to 55 mph
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