EPAC: LORENA - Post-Tropical

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EPAC: LORENA - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 02, 2013 6:06 am

This is the area expected to develop later this week.
It's probably gonna get circled during the next hour.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep992013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309021034
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 99, 2013, DB, O, 2013090206, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP992013
EP, 99, 2013090206, , BEST, 0, 139N, 1002W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO SOUTHWARD FOR
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO
FORM OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO BY MIDWEEK...AND SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK WHILE IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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#2 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 02, 2013 8:36 am

Ok, I was wrong, but the 5-day percentage was raised to 50%.



A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE OFF OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO BY MIDWEEK...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE
LOW AT THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH.
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Re:

#3 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Sep 02, 2013 12:29 pm

Extratropical94 wrote:Ok, I was wrong, but the 5-day percentage was raised to 50%.


That's pretty generous IMO
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#4 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Sep 02, 2013 12:41 pm

20/80

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SOUTHWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ALONG THE WAVE A COUPLE OF
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#5 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Sep 02, 2013 2:34 pm

Are the intensity models aggressive on this one? Seems like it's getting better organised quickly.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#6 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Sep 02, 2013 7:15 pm

Code orange

LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SOUTHWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE WHILE IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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#7 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Sep 03, 2013 2:39 am

40/80

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SOUTHWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE WHILE IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#8 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Sep 03, 2013 2:49 am

The SHIPS model wants to see Hurricane Lorena.

WHXX01 KMIA 030030
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0030 UTC TUE SEP 3 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP992013) 20130903 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130903 0000 130903 1200 130904 0000 130904 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.7N 102.4W 16.4N 103.6W 16.9N 104.7W 17.3N 105.8W
BAMD 15.7N 102.4W 16.2N 103.5W 16.7N 104.3W 17.3N 105.3W
BAMM 15.7N 102.4W 16.4N 103.6W 17.1N 104.7W 17.6N 105.7W
LBAR 15.7N 102.4W 16.6N 104.0W 17.3N 105.4W 17.8N 106.7W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 50KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130905 0000 130906 0000 130907 0000 130908 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.6N 107.1W 18.5N 110.2W 20.1N 113.2W 21.5N 115.2W
BAMD 18.1N 106.5W 20.0N 109.9W 22.2N 113.8W 24.1N 117.2W
BAMM 18.2N 107.0W 19.5N 110.3W 21.1N 113.8W 22.4N 116.5W
LBAR 18.3N 108.1W 20.1N 112.0W 23.2N 116.2W 26.5N 119.1W
SHIP 62KTS 76KTS 80KTS 76KTS
DSHP 62KTS 76KTS 80KTS 76KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.7N LONCUR = 102.4W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 14.7N LONM12 = 99.8W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 14.1N LONM24 = 97.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

hurricanes1234 wrote:Are the intensity models aggressive on this one? Seems like it's getting better organised quickly.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#9 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Sep 03, 2013 5:37 am

Let's see if it stays like this, and not lowered every run.

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#10 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Sep 03, 2013 7:37 am

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF THE DAYS
WHILE THE LOW MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#11 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Sep 03, 2013 3:45 pm

Shallow convection with no improvement.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#12 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Sep 03, 2013 4:20 pm

Much lower than previous runs...

hurricanes1234 wrote:Let's see if it stays like this, and not lowered every run.

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WHXX01 KMIA 031823
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1823 UTC TUE SEP 3 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP992013) 20130903 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130903 1800 130904 0600 130904 1800 130905 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.0N 104.1W 17.3N 104.8W 17.6N 105.9W 18.0N 107.3W
BAMD 17.0N 104.1W 17.4N 104.7W 18.1N 105.6W 19.1N 107.1W
BAMM 17.0N 104.1W 17.6N 104.7W 18.1N 105.7W 18.9N 107.2W
LBAR 17.0N 104.1W 17.7N 105.2W 18.1N 106.6W 18.6N 108.3W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 34KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 34KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130905 1800 130906 1800 130907 1800 130908 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.6N 109.1W 20.3N 112.9W 21.6N 115.8W 21.7N 117.7W
BAMD 20.4N 108.8W 23.2N 112.1W 25.5N 114.4W 26.7N 114.9W
BAMM 19.9N 109.0W 22.2N 113.1W 24.1N 116.4W 25.2N 118.4W
LBAR 19.4N 110.4W 21.7N 114.5W 24.2N 117.4W 26.4N 119.0W
SHIP 48KTS 56KTS 48KTS 37KTS
DSHP 48KTS 56KTS 48KTS 37KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.0N LONCUR = 104.1W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 16.2N LONM12 = 102.1W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 15.1N LONM24 = 101.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
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#13 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 04, 2013 8:24 am

Code Red

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO HAVE BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW...AND THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...
70 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
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#14 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Wed Sep 04, 2013 2:31 pm

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert Issued

Image

WTPN21 PHNC 041330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.4N 103.7W TO 19.8N 110.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
041130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N
104.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.0N 104.8W,
APPROXIMATELY 122 NM SOUTH OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSOLIDATING BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO FORM AROUND A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). AN OLDER 040415Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS TO THE WEST
OF THE LLCC IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER A REGION OF BROAD DIVERGENCE
WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS). MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
051330Z.//
NNNN
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#15 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Sep 05, 2013 2:24 am

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep992013_ep122013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309050717
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 12, 2013, TD, O, 2013090206, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 2, EP122013
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#16 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Sep 05, 2013 5:03 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122013
200 AM PDT THU SEP 05 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO....


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 106.1W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122013
200 AM PDT THU SEP 05 2013

SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVERNIGHT...
AND RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ENOUGH
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR IT TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY THE SCATTEROMETER DATA AND RECENT DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 305 DEGREES AT 5 KT. THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER
FORWARD SPEED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO. WHEN THE CYCLONE WEAKENS IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...IT IS
LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY WITHIN AN AREA OF
WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS. THE NHC TRACK IS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 48 HOURS...WHICH
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND IN LOW
SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE SPRAWLING
NATURE AND LACK OF AN INNER CORE SUGGEST THAT ANY INTENSIFICATION
SHOULD BE GRADUAL. IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO
INGEST STABLE AIR TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS SHOULD
CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 3 TO 4
DAYS.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 17.6N 106.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 18.4N 107.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 19.7N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 20.8N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 21.5N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 22.0N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 22.0N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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#17 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 05, 2013 7:46 am

Boring system thus far IMO.
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Re: EPAC: TWELVE-E - Tropical Depression

#18 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Sep 05, 2013 10:20 am

TS watch up for the Baja coast

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8:00 AM PDT Thu Sep 5
Location: 18.0°N 106.6°W
Moving: NW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph


Get ready for another garbage named storm lol
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Extratropical94
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#19 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Sep 05, 2013 1:02 pm

So now we have an advisory #0?
Interesting :D

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supercane4867
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Re: EPAC: TWELVE-E - Tropical Depression

#20 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Sep 05, 2013 2:22 pm

EP, 12, 2013090518, , BEST, 0, 188N, 1066W, 35, 1003, TS

Lorena is here
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