EPAC: LORENA - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: LORENA - Tropical Storm

#21 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Sep 05, 2013 3:46 pm

TROPICAL STORM LORENA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122013
200 PM PDT THU SEP 05 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE ISSUED FOR LORENA LATER
TONIGHT...



SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 106.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
Last edited by supercane4867 on Thu Sep 05, 2013 3:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: LORENA - Tropical Storm

#22 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 05, 2013 3:46 pm

TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122013
200 PM PDT THU SEP 05 2013

VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS NOT BEEN AS HELPFUL AS IT USUALLY IS IN LOCATING
THE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST OBSCURING
THE CIRCULATION FEATURES. ASCAT DATA SUGGEST THE CENTER IS A BIT
ELONGATED...AND THE INITIAL POSITION IS RELOCATED NORTHWARD...
CLOSER TO A CENTER INDICATED ON MICROWAVE PASSES. STILL...THE
SURFACE CENTER APPEARS TO BE DISPLACED A FAIR DISTANCE SOUTHWEST OF
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 35
KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ASCAT AND THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES.

THE INITIAL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE WOULD NOT SEEM TO FAVOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION...BUT WITH LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATERS...SOME
STRENGTHENING SEEMS PROBABLE DURING THE NEXT 36H OR SO. LAND
INTERACTION AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD CAUSE LORENA TO WEAKEN AFTER
THAT TIME. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS STAYING ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE PLUME...GIVING SOME WEIGHT TO THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH
GENERALLY DO NOT SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING.

RECENTLY LORENA HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...PERHAPS DUE
TO A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TEMPORARILY
WEAKENING THE RIDGE. A LONG-TERM MOTION IS 325/10...NOTABLY TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE FARTHER AWAY
FROM LORENA...ALLOWING THE STORM TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
TREND A BIT FASTER AND NORTHWARD...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED
IN THAT WAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHERN
PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR LATER TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 19.2N 106.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 20.3N 107.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 21.6N 108.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 22.5N 109.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 23.3N 110.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 24.5N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 26.0N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re: EPAC: LORENA - Tropical Storm

#23 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Sep 05, 2013 3:48 pm

Unkown :lol:

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Re: EPAC: LORENA - Tropical Storm

#24 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Sep 05, 2013 9:41 pm

Poor Lorena

...POORLY ORGANIZED LORENA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

5:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 5
Location: 19.6°N 107.2°W
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
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Re: EPAC: LORENA - Tropical Storm

#25 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 05, 2013 9:55 pm

TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122013
800 PM PDT THU SEP 05 2013

FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...THE CENTER OF LORENA WAS NOT WELL
DEFINED AND WAS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. HOWEVER...TWO SSMI/S PASSES
WITHIN THE PAST 3 HOURS CLEARLY SHOW THAT A NEW CENTER HAS FORMED
FARTHER NORTH AND IS DISPLACED JUST SOUTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THE CONVECTION ITSELF WANED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT A
RECENT BURST HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE NEW CENTER POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB.

GIVEN THE REFORMATION OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...BUT A 12-HOUR MOTION YIELDS 325/11 KT. LORENA
CONTINUES TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO.
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION GETS LEFT BEHIND IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING. AS A RESULT...THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY BY 36
HOURS...LINGERING NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE TVCE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN AN ATTEMPT TO DISCOUNT THE INFLUENCE OF
THE HWRF...WHICH MAINTAINS A DEEP VORTEX THAT MOVES UP THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.

BECAUSE THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
SEPARATE...LORENA WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN MUCH
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
REMAINS GOOD AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY
WARM...SO THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH FOR 36 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...LORENA WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH LAND...AND THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW CIRCULATION
WILL LIKELY SPIN DOWN QUICKLY. THE UPDATED FORECAST NOW SHOWS
LORENA BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 3 DAYS AND DISSIPATING BY DAY 4.

THE NORTHWARD REFORMATION OF THE CENTER MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...REQUIRING THE ISSUANCE OF A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN
ISSUED NORTH OF THE WARNING AREA ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 20.4N 107.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 21.6N 108.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 22.5N 109.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 23.2N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 23.8N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/0000Z 25.0N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN
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Re: EPAC: LORENA - Tropical Storm

#26 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Sep 05, 2013 9:57 pm

cycloneye wrote:FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...THE CENTER OF LORENA WAS NOT WELL
DEFINED AND WAS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. HOWEVER...TWO SSMI/S PASSES
WITHIN THE PAST 3 HOURS CLEARLY SHOW THAT A NEW CENTER HAS FORMED
FARTHER NORTH AND IS DISPLACED JUST SOUTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.

Sounds like Gabrielle part two
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#27 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 06, 2013 7:20 am

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 060900
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122013
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 06 2013

LORENA IS DISPLAYING A LIMITED AMOUNT OF RAINBANDS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THOUGH THESE HAVE QUITE COLD CLOUD TOPS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB...WHILE ADT VALUES ARE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER.
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AS WELL AS TWO SHIPS NEAR THE CENTER DO NOT
SUGGEST A WELL-DEVELOPED INNER CORE. THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35
KT.

STANDARD INFRARED...SHORTWAVE INFRARED...AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY THIS
EVENING ARE AMBIGUOUS ABOUT THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CYCLONE. THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT...WITH A MORE
THAN USUAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. LORENA IS PRIMARILY BEING
STEERED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS
NORTHEAST. AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AFTER INTERACTION WITH
LAND...LORENA SHOULD DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN
THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PRIMARILY BASED
UPON THE GFS..GFS ENSEMBLE..AND ECMWF MODELS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

LORENA DOES HAVE SOME OPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY BEFORE INTERACTING
WITH THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...BUT TIME IS RUNNING
SHORT. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND IS
TRAVERSING SSTS OF 29C. HOWEVER...IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...THE
CIRCULATION OF LORENA WILL BE IMPACTED BY BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
RESTRICT ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW
IS ANTICIPATED IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...IF NOT SOONER. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LGEM...DECAY SHIPS..AND HWRF MODELS AND
IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AN ALTERNATIVE...BUT
UNLIKELY SCENARIO...IS FOR LORENA TO TRAVERSE THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND RETAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS FOR AN ADDITIONAL
COUPLE OF DAYS AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL MODEL.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 21.3N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 22.3N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 23.2N 110.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 23.7N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 24.3N 111.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/0600Z 25.5N 111.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/AVILA
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Re: EPAC: LORENA - Tropical Storm

#28 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 06, 2013 9:40 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122013
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 06 2013

...RAIN SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LORENA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 109.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF BUENAVISTA TO LA PAZ.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BUENAVISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR NORTH OF AGUA BLANCA TO SANTA FE




TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122013
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 06 2013

RADAR DATA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS SUGGEST THE CENTER OF LORENA IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. SOME BANDING
IS EVIDENT...ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES. DVORAK ESTIMATES STILL
SUGGEST AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LORENA
INTERACTS WITH LAND DURING THE NEXT 6-12 H. AFTER THAT TIME...
ENTRAINMENT OF MORE STABLE AIR AND CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION
SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE. SINCE IT IS SUCH A
WEAK SYSTEM TO BEGIN WITH...LORENA SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW
AND/OR DISSIPATE NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE GLOBAL
MODEL PREDICTIONS...THE LATTER OF WHICH HAVE DONE A FINE JOB ON
ANTICIPATING THE LACK OF STRENGTHENING.

LORENA APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLOWER PACE...315/10.
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE
CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AT A DECREASING FORWARD SPEED....AND AS THE
STORM WEAKENS...IT SHOULD SLOW AND TURN NORTHWARD. THE PRIMARY
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS HOW FAR NORTH THE CYCLONE
GETS BEFORE IT DECOUPLES VERTICALLY. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG...IT SHOULD BECOME MORE STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND WILL PROBABLY STAY SOUTH OF THE GFDL/HWRF
FORECASTS WHICH SHOW A STRONGER SYSTEM. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...GENERALLY LYING NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 22.3N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 23.1N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 23.8N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 24.3N 111.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/1200Z 25.0N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN
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Re: EPAC: LORENA - Tropical Storm

#29 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Sep 06, 2013 9:55 am

Tropical Thunderstorm Lorena

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Re: EPAC: LORENA - Tropical Storm

#30 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 06, 2013 3:38 pm

TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122013
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 06 2013

CABO SAN LUCAS RADAR HAS BEEN USEFUL IN TRACKING THE CENTER OF
LORENA THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWING IT PASS SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE CENTER HAS ALSO BECOME MORE DEFINED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH MORE PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES NEAR
AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE. A SOMEWHAT ELEVATED REPORT FROM CABO
PULMO HAD SUSTAINED WIND OF 41 KT A FEW HOURS AGO...AND GIVEN THE
INCREASED ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 40 KT.
WEAKENING WILL PROBABLY BEGIN BY TOMORROW DUE TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND SOME LAND INTERACTION.
THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...NEAR
OR BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/8. LORENA SHOULD SLOW AND TURN NORTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT WEAKENS. GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO THE MODELS
REALIZING THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO GET CAUGHT IN WEAKER LOW-LEVEL
FLOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE NHC FORECAST IS MOVED TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN LINE WITH THE MODEL TREND. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE ENTRAINMENT OF MORE STABLE AIR AND LAND
INTERACTION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 22.8N 110.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 23.4N 111.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 23.9N 111.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 24.2N 111.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/1800Z 24.5N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re: EPAC: LORENA - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 06, 2013 9:40 pm

TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122013
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 06 2013

SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR DATA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS INDICATE THAT
LORENA HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS MORE ELONGATED...AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BEEN DIMINISHING AND IS NOW LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CIRCULATION. THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE DECREASED...AND
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED DOWNWARD TO 35 KT. CONTINUED
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LORENA TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION
IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AND TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 TO 36
HOURS. THIS FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE TREND SEEN IN THE GFS
AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS.

THE STORM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 9 KT ON THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. LORENA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN WHILE IT WEAKENS...AND ITS
REMNANT LOW WILL LIKELY BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA COAST BY SUNDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 23.2N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 23.6N 111.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 24.0N 112.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 24.3N 112.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/0000Z 24.5N 112.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
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Re: EPAC: LORENA - Tropical Depression

#32 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 07, 2013 4:36 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122013
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 07 2013

DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOW BECOME SPORADIC IN ASSOCIATION WITH LORENA
AS THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE
ARE TAKING THEIR TOLL. USING A BLEND OF THE TAFB AND SAB DVORAK
FINAL-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
WEAKENED TO ABOUT A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION...WHICH IS THE
CURRENT INTENSITY.

STANDARD INFRARED AND SHORT-WAVE INFRARED IMAGERY DO NOT PROVIDE FOR
AN ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE CYCLONE...DUE
TO THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
FORTUNATELY...0054Z TRMM AND 0312Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASSES ALLOW FOR
A MUCH BETTER DETERMINATION OF THE INITIAL POSITION OF LORENA.
THESE INDICATE A MOTION OF THE CYCLONE OF 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT.
LORENA SHOULD SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED AND TURN TO THE NORTH AS IT IS
STEERED BY THE RATHER WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
THE PREDICTED TRACK IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
IS JUST WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

LORENA SHOULD NOT LAST MUCH LONGER AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE DUE TO
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE THERMODYNAMICS. ALL STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A GRADUAL WINDING DOWN OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH IS
ALSO INDICATED IN THIS INTENSITY PREDICTION. TRANSITION TO A
REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN ABOUT A DAY...BUT THIS COULD
OCCUR SOONER IF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP
SHORTLY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 23.2N 111.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 23.6N 112.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 23.8N 112.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 08/1800Z 24.0N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/0600Z 24.0N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Re: EPAC: LORENA - Tropical Depression

#33 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 07, 2013 9:34 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122013
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 07 2013

A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION BRIEFLY REDEVELOPED NEAR LORENA...
PROBABLY JUST AN ARTIFACT OF THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM PERIOD...AND THE
CENTER IS AGAIN BECOMING EXPOSED ON FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY.
DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST 30 KT IS A GOOD INITIAL INTENSITY. AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO MORE STABLE AIR...IT
SHOULD LOSE ANY SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. THE LATEST NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION IS A BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE LATEST CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. LORENA WILL
PROBABLY BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 12H.

BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 300/5. LORENA IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE IT GETS CAUGHT IN
RATHER LIGHT LOW-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS. THE LATEST FORECAST SHOWS
LITTLE NET MOTION AFTER 12H...AND THE SMALL CIRCULATION SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...IF NOT SOONER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 23.8N 111.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 24.0N 112.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 08/1200Z 24.0N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 09/0000Z 24.0N 112.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Yellow Evan
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#34 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 07, 2013 2:04 pm

I doubt it will make it to Baja probs.
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Re: EPAC: LORENA - Tropical Depression

#35 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Sep 07, 2013 6:08 pm

Latest image - Lorena is a convectionless vortex. Should be post-tropical by tonight. That area that Lorena is very close to could experience some gusty winds, but no thunderstorms as long as convection does not re-develop. THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST!

Image

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Re: EPAC: LORENA - Post-Tropical

#36 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 07, 2013 9:37 pm

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122013
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 07 2013

LORENA HAS BEEN DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12
HOURS...THUS IT NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS
IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THIS SYSTEM. THE REMNANT LOW STILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND IS PRODUCING WINDS OF AROUND 25 KT. A GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE IT
DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD OVER COOL WATERS NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BY EARLY MONDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 24.3N 112.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 08/1200Z 24.4N 112.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 09/0000Z 24.6N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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