ATL: EIGHT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#61 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Thu Sep 05, 2013 6:56 pm

swampdude wrote:
wxman57 wrote:It does look quite impressive on satellite now. Perhaps even has an LLC forming. Maybe we can get 2-3 advisories out of it before it moves inland into Mexico tomorrow? Have to watch those storms named Humberto in the Gulf. Sometimes they surprise you.

The last Humberto was our "stealth" hurricane! No hurricane warnings......just a tiny hurricane who's tiny eye came over our house! Keep an eye out for sure!! :wink:


Humberto was a strong tropical storm at this point already, but this one is getting its act together
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#62 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Thu Sep 05, 2013 7:11 pm

NWS oh Houston posted this link on their twitter. .gif of Humberto!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/hgx/hurr ... arSlow.gif
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#63 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 05, 2013 7:40 pm

8 PM TWD.

A 1011 MB LOW IS NEAR 22N95W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N96W TO THE LOW
CENTER TO 17N93W. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
POSSIBLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE LOW
MOVES INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ AND TAMAULIPAS
THROUGH FRIDAY. PRESENTLY CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#64 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 05, 2013 7:47 pm

00z Best Track.

AL, 99, 2013090600, , BEST, 0, 226N, 964W, 30, 1011, LO
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#65 Postby ninel conde » Thu Sep 05, 2013 8:29 pm

it looks pretty dried up right now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#66 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 05, 2013 8:30 pm

its called D-MIN.... :wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#67 Postby ninel conde » Thu Sep 05, 2013 9:14 pm

ROCK wrote:its called D-MIN.... :wink:


or 2013 :x
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#68 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 05, 2013 9:23 pm

ninel conde wrote:
ROCK wrote:its called D-MIN.... :wink:


or 2013 :x


there is actually a fair amount of convection near the coast which is close to where the center is. Models never showed development with this in the first place either.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#69 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 05, 2013 9:46 pm

yeah it will be on the coast very soon....probably wont have time to develop...but you never know with D-max..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#70 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Sep 05, 2013 9:51 pm

No, I don't see this developing either. Just look at its proximity to the coast, compared to its poor organisation. For this to fully spin up, it would probably need another day or so in my opinion. If it rapidly organises, the most I see out of this is a brief depression characteristic of this season.

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Re:

#71 Postby Craters » Thu Sep 05, 2013 10:49 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:NWS oh Houston posted this link on their twitter. .gif of Humberto!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/hgx/hurr ... arSlow.gif


Wow -- thanks for posting that, TeamPlayersBlue! :D I remember that day and how amazed and confounded everybody was as it transformed itself without missing a beat. Heh -- that head fake to the west was particularly inconsiderate of the thing, too. :grr:

Amazing loop...
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#72 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 06, 2013 5:22 am

Stays at 50-50%.

2 AM Tropical Weather Outlook.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LOCATED A
LITTLE LESS THAN A HUNDRED MILES EAST OF TAMPICO IS MOVING
WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SQUALLS. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS
ALREADY APPROACHING LAND...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE
THE LOW MOVES INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE SPREADING ALONG THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN
STATES OF VERACRUZ AND TAMAULIPAS TODAY.
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#73 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 06, 2013 5:23 am

2 AM TWD



BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE W GULF OF MEXICO IS ANALYZED
AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N97W THROUGH A WEAK 1012
MB LOW NEAR 23N97W TO 20N95W. HOWEVER...DATA FROM AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED IT
DID NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION. SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL POSSIBLE AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE LOW MOVES INLAND ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE SPREADING ALONG THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN
STATES OF VERACRUZ AND TAMAULIPAS TODAY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 20N-26N W OF 92W TO
INLAND OVER MEXICO.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#74 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 06, 2013 6:51 am

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LOCATED A
LITTLE LESS THAN A HUNDRED MILES EAST OF TAMPICO IS MOVING
WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SQUALLS. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS
ALREADY APPROACHING LAND...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE
THE LOW MOVES INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE SPREADING ALONG THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN
STATES OF VERACRUZ AND TAMAULIPAS TODAY.
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Re: Re:

#75 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Fri Sep 06, 2013 7:55 am

Craters wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:NWS oh Houston posted this link on their twitter. .gif of Humberto!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/hgx/hurr ... arSlow.gif


Wow -- thanks for posting that, TeamPlayersBlue! :D I remember that day and how amazed and confounded everybody was as it transformed itself without missing a beat. Heh -- that head fake to the west was particularly inconsiderate of the thing, too. :grr:

Amazing loop...


Welcome! I hate to toot my horn but i remember looking at it and saying it would develop quickly. The whole system had a nice spin to it and the convection wasnt only on one side of the low in the beginning. 31C water helps too!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#76 Postby Sanibel » Fri Sep 06, 2013 9:09 am

99 is another one that just needed a little more time over water.
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#77 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Sep 06, 2013 12:07 pm

Update!

1. UPDATED...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO
HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH
THIS SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND BEFORE A TROPICAL
CYCLONE CAN FORM...IT IS LIKELY TO BRING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES...IN THE
MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ AND TAMAULIPAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN A
FEW SQUALLS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
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#78 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 06, 2013 12:23 pm

It's clear the western Gulf is pretty good for development - but it is a small area of the basin. Maybe an unnamed storm in post-analysis?
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#79 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 06, 2013 12:32 pm

BREAKING NEWS - TD8 has formed
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Re:

#80 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 06, 2013 12:33 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:BREAKING NEWS - TD8 has formed


SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS HAS ALLOWED IT TO STAY OVER WATER
AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO BRING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 8 INCHES...IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ AND
TAMAULIPAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN A FEW SQUALLS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
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