ATL: EIGHT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Rgv20
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#21 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Sep 05, 2013 11:58 am

:uarrow: It's already doing it :D

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#22 Postby tailgater » Thu Sep 05, 2013 12:00 pm

Possible LLC forming or has formed just west of convection, 22.5N 95.2W

Sorry missed this post, might a an eddy that I'm looking at.



A little south of west, but very slowly at the moment.

AL, 99, 2013090500, , BEST, 0, 215N, 940W, 15, 1011, LO,
AL, 99, 2013090506, , BEST, 0, 215N, 943W, 20, 1010, LO,
AL, 99, 2013090512, , BEST, 0, 213N, 944W, 20, 1010, LO,
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Re:

#23 Postby perk » Thu Sep 05, 2013 12:15 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#24 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 05, 2013 12:42 pm

There's a chance it could spin up into a TS before it moves ashore into Mexico tomorrow. Pressures aren't too low in the SW Gulf, but it's been the only place in the Atlantic with a favorable environment this season. Would be something if the season ended with 19 named storms and no hurricanes...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#25 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Sep 05, 2013 12:46 pm

'CaneFreak wrote:BTW, that image was from late yesterday afternoon just so you know.

So it may be even better organized by now, just sayin...
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#26 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Sep 05, 2013 12:52 pm

50/50

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM BEFORE THE LOW MOVES INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO ON
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#27 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 05, 2013 1:12 pm

It does look quite impressive on satellite now. Perhaps even has an LLC forming. Maybe we can get 2-3 advisories out of it before it moves inland into Mexico tomorrow? Have to watch those storms named Humberto in the Gulf. Sometimes they surprise you.
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#28 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Sep 05, 2013 1:14 pm

Courtesy of 99L moisture :P



SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
104 PM CDT THU SEP 5 2013

TXZ252-051845-
STARR-
104 PM CDT THU SEP 5 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...

SOUTHERN STARR COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

AT 104 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED AN
AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...FROM 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF RIO
GRANDE CITY TO 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RIO GRANDE CITY...MOVING WEST
AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...
GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALTO BONITO.
LA CASITA.
SANTA CRUZ.
LAS LOMAS.
LOS VILLAREALES.
RIO GRANDE CITY.
HIGHWAY 83.

MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL MEDIA...OR WEATHER.GOV FOR
UPDATES.
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#29 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 05, 2013 1:17 pm

GUess this is where everyone is lol..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#30 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 05, 2013 1:25 pm

Would it be wrong of me to say I'll be upset if this sneaks in hurricane status and blows the chance of setting an inactivity record? :)

Seriously though, Mexico doesn't need yet another tropical storm into the same general area.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#31 Postby Portastorm » Thu Sep 05, 2013 1:40 pm

tolakram wrote:Would it be wrong of me to say I'll be upset if this sneaks in hurricane status and blows the chance of setting an inactivity record? :)

Seriously though, Mexico doesn't need yet another tropical storm into the same general area.


Yeah, I would be curious to see how that central Gulf coast of Mexico is faring with regards to rainfall this summer compared to normal. Isn't this the third system to impact them?
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#32 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 05, 2013 1:42 pm

Saved VIS LOOP:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#33 Postby thetruesms » Thu Sep 05, 2013 1:46 pm

tolakram wrote:Would it be wrong of me to say I'll be upset if this sneaks in hurricane status and blows the chance of setting an inactivity record? :)

Seriously though, Mexico doesn't need yet another tropical storm into the same general area.
I want to say I would be a little amused if it literally pulled an Humberto, but then I remember that means a landfall, and then I feel bad
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#34 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 05, 2013 1:47 pm

definitely a rotation about 22.5n 95.8w they will probably upgrade if a little more convection develops near that feature.
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Re:

#35 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 05, 2013 1:49 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:definitely a rotation about 22.5n 95.8w they will probably upgrade if a little more convection develops near that feature.


Close from there :) 18z Best Track.

AL, 99, 2013090518, , BEST, 0, 223N, 950W, 25, 1011, LO
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#36 Postby tailgater » Thu Sep 05, 2013 2:34 pm

Looks like a broderline TS from data given by HH, in the NE quadrant, if they can close off a center.
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#37 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 05, 2013 2:38 pm

2 PM TWD

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 21N94W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
25N95W...TO THE LOW CENTER...TO THE COAST OF MEXICO ALONG 93W...
MORE INLAND TO 16N93W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH
A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
21N TO 24N BETWEEN 92W AND 94W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 26N
TO THE WEST OF 90W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 05/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.63 IN
MERIDA MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#38 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 05, 2013 2:40 pm

Convection is weakening now. Not a sign of it becoming better organized presently. Still has a good chance of becoming a TS before moving into MX tomorrow.
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#39 Postby Alyono » Thu Sep 05, 2013 3:07 pm

seems as if recon is closing off a center
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion-It has been renumbered

#40 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 05, 2013 3:23 pm

A few light NW winds found, but I don't think it's organized enough for an upgrade. Good chance it will be within 12 hours.
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