ATL: EIGHT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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#41 Postby 'CaneFreak » Thu Sep 05, 2013 3:23 pm

Sure does look that way as the last couple sets of obs have indicated a wind shift in an area with a pressure of 1010 mb. Earlier, a dropsonde measured surface wind speeds of 35 mph so this could very well be a tropical depression right now.

Alyono wrote:seems as if recon is closing off a center
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#42 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 05, 2013 3:29 pm

Recon reports west winds at 15 kts near 21.5N/96W. LLC is evident in the obs, but is it enough for an upgrade? I'd say it is still a bit broad/weak and lacks organized convection near the center.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#43 Postby panamatropicwatch » Thu Sep 05, 2013 3:33 pm

Are we sure that is going to be the center or just an eddy, I haven't seen a vortex message.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#44 Postby HurriGuy » Thu Sep 05, 2013 3:38 pm

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

Pressures falling at this buoy plus an increase in winds. Im not quite sure though about that wind direction.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#45 Postby RL3AO » Thu Sep 05, 2013 3:38 pm

wxman57 wrote:Recon reports west winds at 15 kts near 21.5N/96W. LLC is evident in the obs, but is it enough for an upgrade? I'd say it is still a bit broad/weak and lacks organized convection near the center.


Very close call. LLC looks similar on recon to what they upgraded yesterday. However, this one doesn't quite have enough convection near the center IMO. One burst though and we have a TD.
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#46 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Sep 05, 2013 3:39 pm

Latest Visible Satellite..

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#47 Postby HurriGuy » Thu Sep 05, 2013 3:40 pm

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002

Pressures are also falling well north of the supposed center.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#48 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 05, 2013 3:41 pm

I agree with Wxmn57....that is where I see the LLC....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#49 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Sep 05, 2013 4:15 pm

I don't want this system to intensify too much before making landfall in Mexico. If it develops too much, it will take away the moisture from south Texas. We need rain!
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#50 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 05, 2013 4:21 pm

They never really went into the convection, where I think an LLC is more likely.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#51 Postby Cuda17 » Thu Sep 05, 2013 4:31 pm

Sure does look like a llc at 22.2, 94.5. That's right under the current convection. I'm looking at the RGB floater.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#52 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 05, 2013 4:33 pm

Cuda17 wrote:Sure does look like a llc at 22.2, 94.5. That's right under the current convection. I'm looking at the RGB floater.


Indeed that seems like a possible LLC. But why is Recon still looking out around 96.2?
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#53 Postby Alyono » Thu Sep 05, 2013 4:44 pm

Because recon has clearly found a LLC where they are flying.

We probably should stop looking at high cloud circulations and focus on the low clouds. The center shows up where recon has fixed it
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#54 Postby swampdude » Thu Sep 05, 2013 4:51 pm

wxman57 wrote:It does look quite impressive on satellite now. Perhaps even has an LLC forming. Maybe we can get 2-3 advisories out of it before it moves inland into Mexico tomorrow? Have to watch those storms named Humberto in the Gulf. Sometimes they surprise you.

The last Humberto was our "stealth" hurricane! No hurricane warnings......just a tiny hurricane who's tiny eye came over our house! Keep an eye out for sure!! :wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#55 Postby swampdude » Thu Sep 05, 2013 4:52 pm

wxman57 wrote:It does look quite impressive on satellite now. Perhaps even has an LLC forming. Maybe we can get 2-3 advisories out of it before it moves inland into Mexico tomorrow? Have to watch those storms named Humberto in the Gulf. Sometimes they surprise you.

The last Humberto was our "stealth" hurricane! No hurricane warnings......just a tiny hurricane who's tiny eye came over our house! Keep an eye out for sure!! :wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#56 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 05, 2013 4:53 pm

Saved RGB Loop

Image
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#57 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Sep 05, 2013 4:53 pm

NO DEFINED COC:

UPDATED...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF
TAMPICO MEXICO AND DID NOT FIND A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION.
IN ADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
POSSIBLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE LOW
MOVES INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ AND
TAMAULIPAS THROUGH FRIDAY.
Last edited by Extratropical94 on Thu Sep 05, 2013 4:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L-Discussion -Special Tropical Weather Outlook

#58 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 05, 2013 4:59 pm

:uarrow: agree look below the high clouds....you can see inflow around 96W....dont focus on the convection as it is displaced some from the center.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#59 Postby Sanibel » Thu Sep 05, 2013 6:13 pm

22.6-95.5
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#60 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 05, 2013 6:36 pm

DATA FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO DID NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER OF CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL POSSIBLE...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE LOW MOVES INLAND ALONG
THE COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ AND TAMAULIPAS THROUGH
FRIDAY.
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