ATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

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ATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 07, 2013 11:52 am

Wave emerging Africa.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al912013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309071650
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2013, DB, O, 2013090712, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912013
AL, 91, 2013090712, , BEST, 0, 131N, 159W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this African area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=115599&st=0&sk=t&sd=a
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#2 Postby ROCK » Sat Sep 07, 2013 11:59 am

great model support for this one....might be our first cane of the season! I am excited about it...
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#3 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Sep 07, 2013 12:00 pm

IMO, this wave will affect how we feel about this season. Could be a powerful hurricane or this will bust.
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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#4 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 07, 2013 12:20 pm

galaxy401 wrote:IMO, this wave will affect how we feel about this season. Could be a powerful hurricane or this will bust.

If this does become our first hurricane I don't expect it to become more than a upper-end Cat.1 or lower-end Cat.2 at best.
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#5 Postby SFLcane » Sat Sep 07, 2013 12:21 pm

Good chance at likely becoming our first hurricane but highly unlikely to impact anyone other then the capeverdes.
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#6 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 07, 2013 12:32 pm

Cape Verdes are not used to significant TCs... could cause probs there
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#7 Postby pgoss11 » Sat Sep 07, 2013 12:37 pm

I'm hopeful this one will be our first cane of the season! :D Unlikely to affect anyone but please for the love of God can I see a beautiful cane spinning out in the Atlantic this year! :roll:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#8 Postby jaguarjace » Sat Sep 07, 2013 12:39 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#9 Postby Florida1118 » Sat Sep 07, 2013 12:48 pm

A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED ALONG THE COAST OF SENEGAL ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE. THIS DISTURBANCE IS ALREADY SHOWING
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IN A FEW DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE OPEN EASTERN ATLANTIC.
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#10 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 07, 2013 12:55 pm

I certainly think this system has a decent chance of becoming our first hurricane of 2013. Hopefully this invest won't cause too much of an issue for the Cape Verde Islands. Once it gets past there, hopefully it will become a hurricane and we can track it knowing it likely won't impact anybody.

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#11 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Sep 07, 2013 1:00 pm

Mid-level dry air should not be an issue for several days:

700-500 MB RH 78 78 80 80 79 79 74 74 70 69 68 66 66

Little shear:

SHEAR (KT) 7 11 9 6 7 9 9 5 7 4 4 8 5

SSTs don't begin to go unfavorable until day 5:

SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.4 27.1 26.6 26.1

Though vertical instability is a little below average (should limit the intensity of convection):

TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6

No reason to suggest this won't become a hurricane other than the fact that it's 2013.
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#12 Postby Hammy » Sat Sep 07, 2013 1:02 pm

So many other systems have had model support and organization and gone poof, and this one like the rest is already losing convection as it comes off. Personally at this point I won't believe any individual wave will become anything more than a Dorian/Erin repeat until I actually see it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 07, 2013 1:20 pm

18z Best Track.

AL, 91, 2013090718, , BEST, 0, 135N, 170W, 20, 1006, DB
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#14 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 07, 2013 1:26 pm

:darrow: Here's the latest instability as of today for the Tropical Atlantic, which once again is starting to go below normal.

Image
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#15 Postby weathernerdguy » Sat Sep 07, 2013 4:17 pm

Um..... :?: will this truly become a hurricane.?
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#16 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 07, 2013 4:30 pm

I'm still skeptical given the shear map...any signs that it is really relaxing?
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#17 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Sep 07, 2013 4:37 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I'm still skeptical given the shear map...any signs that it is really relaxing?

:?:

Code: Select all

SHEAR (KT)        10     6     5     7     6     9     7     6     5     8     2     5     3
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#18 Postby RL3AO » Sat Sep 07, 2013 4:52 pm

The models, especially the statistical ones, have a habit of developing systems too quickly. I highly doubt Cape Verde will get a cat 2 hurricane, but they could get an intensifying tropical storm.


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#19 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 07, 2013 5:11 pm

If anything it would become a hurricane right after passing the Cape Verde islands but even that seems too quick IMO.
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#20 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sat Sep 07, 2013 5:22 pm

30/80, but whatever it does, I hope it waits until after the 11th.
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